On July 28, Trump National Golf Club, about an hour and a half drive west of New York.
The LIV Golf Tournament, launched by Saudi Arabia to compete with the PGA, an American professional golf league, was held here.
Before the opening, there is a 'pro-am' match in which famous players and their sponsors play a friendly match.
Of course, former President Donald Trump, a golf enthusiast and owner of the golf course, also came.
He was paired up with two champions, Dustin Johnson and Bryson Dishambo, and played as usual and reckless.
It was not his turn to shoot first, or when his companion was about to hit the ball, he rode a cart first, picked up the ball and put it close to the hole cup, and committed all manner of unpredictable and dangerous acts in golf.
Trump's behavior like this is normal, so a different aspect became a topic of discussion that day.
The coat of arms of the President of the United States was written on various items such as golf carts.
The presidential mark in the upper left corner of the photo below is an example.
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The Washington Post and others pointed out that it is illegal for a non-incumbent president to write such a presidential sentence.
Eric's golf bag, the second son he played with, was engraved with a phrase suggesting Trump's run for president in 2024.
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These two photos reveal two of Trump's inner thoughts without filtering.
1) I didn't lose to Biden in the 2020 presidential election.
The election was stolen.
2) In the 2024 presidential election, I will be the president of the United States again.
Is that true?
It may or may not be.
The reason he could become president again is, first, that he still wields a powerful influence over the Republican voters.
It's a win-win for the Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election.
The second reason is that he doesn't seem to have any specific candidates in the Democrats to face Trump.
The incumbent president, Joe Biden, is too unpopular and too old.
His vice president, Kamala Harris, also doesn't have much political presence.
The competitive power of the other expected Democratic candidates is unknown.
On the other hand, there are many reasons why it is difficult for Trump to become president again in the 2024 election.
First, 'judicial risk'.
Trump is under investigation for allegedly being behind the riots on January 6, 2021, when Trump supporters broke into Congress.
Second, he did a lot of reckless things, so many competent and rational people around him left.
There is also a problem with the campaign message.
On Heo Guheon Day, more and more people are shaking their heads, even among Republican supporters, because they are only talking about voting manipulation and election fraud.
Third, perhaps this is the biggest threat to Trump, where there is a growing strong competitor within the Republican Party.
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Now, let's go back to the question in the title.
Can Trump be president again?
After explaining the facts that will be the basis of the judgment, we will post an online vote, so please participate for fun.
"Civil" in US capital... 1.6 congressional riots
In order to talk about Trump's political future, there is an event that must be noted.
That's the January 6, 2021 Capitol riot by Trump enthusiasts, what Americans call the "January 6th."
The House of Representatives special committee and the Justice Department are still investigating, so American politics is noisy over this issue.
The genus is as follows:
On December 14, 2020, the presidential electoral college elected Democratic candidate Joe Biden as president.
But Trump did not win.
It was that his own vote had been stolen by election fraud.
Five days later, Trump tweets inciting supporters to gather in Washington on January 6, 2021, to stage a massive protest.
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January 6, 2021 was the day when the results of the presidential election were finalized jointly by the House and the Senate at the Capitol in Washington, DC.
It was a ceremonial procedure to end the election with the approval of the electoral votes of each state (Biden victory) by Vice President and Senator Michael Pence.
At noon on January 6th, one hour before the start of this process.
Trump addressed his supporters gathered in front of the White House.
Vice President Pence in the Capitol should overturn the election and declare the election null and void.
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Even before the speech was over, Trump supporters began to flock to the Capitol.
Around the same time, Pence tweeted a letter rejecting Trump's request, saying he had no authority to overturn the election.
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1:00 pm.
House Speaker Pelosi tapped the baton to announce the opening, while protesters outside the building broke through the first police line.
1:5 p.m.
Trump ended his speech with these words:
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The increasing number of protesters broke the front door of the Capitol and broke into the building from around 2 o'clock, churning through offices and conference halls.
Some extremists have been looking for the two men to kill Vice President Pence and House Speaker Pelosi.
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On the same day, a police officer was shot to death by an intruding crowd and a protester was shot and killed by the police.
Three of the protesters were crushed to death in a state of collective excitement, or died of a heart attack or cerebral hemorrhage.
The lawmakers were isolated in the conference hall, wearing gas masks and trembling in fear of death.
After an online appeal from Republican lawmakers and a strong warning from Biden-elect, Trump tweeted about 4 p.m. protesting restraint, and the situation ended around 6 p.m.
Biden called it "an insurrection, not a protest."
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It was a case in which the president tried to overturn the election result that even Republican lawmakers and internal White House legal advisers "should admit" to violence from a group of fanatics.
Democracy in America has been hit hard.
If we call it our style of naming, it could be called the '1.6 Incident'.
Riots, did Trump do it? Ministry of Justice investigation
More than 850 people have been arrested in this case.
The House Special Investigation Committee and the Justice Department are continuing their investigation, broadening their scope.
The purpose of this is to find out who made them flock to the Capitol, and to impose criminal responsibility and prevent a threat to the democratic system from happening again.
Trump's incitement to his supporters to 'Press Vice President Pence to overturn the election results, run to Congress' is evidenced by his own speeches and Twitter posts alone.
After Trump finished his speech, he got into the car and ordered him to go to the Capitol, and when the attendants refused, there were also testimonies that he had a fight with a bodyguard that he would take the steering wheel himself.
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But, did Trump get his mob supporters to break through the Capitol door and wield violence?
There is still no evidence to prove that and lead to a conviction.
The Ministry of Justice is solving the puzzle by investigating people related to the Trump campaign and protesters.
In addition to the incitement of the riots, an investigation is underway to find out what Trump did to his dissatisfaction with the election results and refusal to resign as president.
Does the FBI's search and seizure of Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort, Florida, on the 8th (local time) have anything to do with the investigation?
At first glance, it appears that it was more for the recovery of White House classified documents, but it is unknown at this time.
As Trump left the White House, he carried a large amount of presidential documents and classified documents.
it is illegal
Trump is the kind of person who shouldn't leave important papers behind.
During his tenure as president, he often tore up papers or notes that would be against him and dumped them in the toilet.
There is also talk of frequent clogging of the toilet, making it difficult for the White House plumber.
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The National Archives recovered 15 boxes of documents earlier this year through a long process.
Among them is a personal letter sent by Kim Jong-un.
According to CNN reports, the contents of the 15 boxes were later secured by the Ministry of Justice.
This time, the FBI confiscated from Trump's residence at the Mar-a-Lago resort is another 12 boxes of documents.
It is presumed that these documents are also confidential documents or presidential records that should not be taken out without permission, but the specifics are not yet known.
Trump's political future won't be sabotaged by illegal acts such as taking presidential records and confidential documents to his private residence.
Trump is a man who has done a lot more shameful things than that and finished his presidency.
The problem is if the confiscated piles of documents come up with something to prove what he did in relation to his disobedience to the election.
If that happens, the explosiveness of the matter increases.
The U.S. Department of Justice has been reining in an investigation into whether Trump had planned and pursued a plan to retain the presidency after losing the 2020 presidential election.
Federal prosecutors have been following allegations that Trump conspired to send fake Electoral Colleges to Congress to manipulate Electoral College votes.
The Ministry of Justice began issuing grand jury subpoenas to rival electoral colleges during the last presidential election.
Electors targeted for subpoenas included those who signed fake certificates certifying Trump's victory, Reuters reported.
According to the Washington Post (WP) and others, as the public opinion that President Biden will be defeated by Trump in the next election appeared, voices within and outside the Democratic Party that the Justice Department should investigate Trump and put him down have grown louder.
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Attorney General Merrick Garland of the Biden administration dismisses political considerations at all.
His inauguration was to restore the independence of the Justice Department, which had been reduced to a 'weapon' by former President Trump against political opponents such as Hillary Clinton.
Attorney General Garland, a former judge with a very prudent personality, said in an interview with NBC on July 26 that "anyone, of any rank," would be held legally responsible for the January 6 case.
He did not name Trump himself, but it was interpreted as meaning that he would prosecute even a former president if he found that he could prove the charges.
(In the United States, the Attorney General also serves as the Attorney General.)
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The question is when... Were they searched and confiscated to influence the election?
Justice Department investigators investigating Trump's release of the White House documents already confirmed in early June that an additional 12 boxes of documents remained at the Mar-a-Lago resort.
However, there is a controversy as to why the search and seizure warrant was obtained and executed now.
The raid was conducted 92 days before the US midterm elections.
On November 8, this year, the United States will hold an election to evaluate the Biden administration.
A total of 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 out of 100 seats in the Senate will be elected.
It is also a major election for elected officials, including governors of 39 states and territories.
Trump is not a candidate in this election, but he is one of the most influential figures.
Depending on who Trump is pushing, the candidate will change and the outcome may change.
Trump has already knocked out five of the congressmen who have turned their backs on him in the ongoing Republican primary on the 11th.
Proving his power in this election would give Trump an advantage in the Republican primary for the 2024 presidential election.
Those who argue that the search and seizure are not political pressure on Trump explain that the Biden administration has been urging Trump to return the remaining documents since June, but it has not worked.
So, it was only forced to use means, and since the other party is the next influential ruling party candidate for the former president, it took a couple of months because there are many things to be mindful of when requesting a warrant and to prepare data.
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Trump and his supporters claim that the Biden administration conducted the raids ahead of the midterm elections to create an image of something wrong with Trump.
If the election is imminent, the effect will be great, but they claim that they chose the timing just before the start of the full-fledged election phase, fearing that criticism of a 'political investigation' would be fierce.
Gathering supporters... Trump's Counterattack
Trump was in New York when the FBI started the raid in Florida.
The Justice Department and the FBI, which have been preparing for weeks of raids and raids, have chosen the time when Trump left the Mar-a-Lago resort "so as not to give him a chance to riot in front of the camera," Newsweek reports.
He missed the opportunity to make a fuss with the investigators, but Trump, with his animalistic flair for gossip and political battles, saw this as a turning point.
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Key Republicans, who are noticing Trump supporters, also opened fire in support.
Republican House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy pressured Attorney General Garland, saying, "As soon as Republicans retake the House in the midterm elections, they will supervise the Justice Department. Keep the documents safe."
Trump has also released a video suggesting that he will run for president in 2024 beyond the midterm elections.
It is a situation in which the declaration of candidacy is accelerated by turning this raid into a political opportunity.
He also sent a fundraising email to his supporters, urging the Democratic Party to "expose and stop illegal, political persecution and witch-hunting" against him.
How will this match be?
Trump's approval rating? Will it be able to outperform its competitors?
So, what is Trump's current approval rating?
This question needs to be divided into two parts: 1) How competitive are you from candidates coming out of the Democratic Party? 2) How competitive are you to potential candidates in the Republican Party?
According to a July 27-28 poll conducted by Harvard University's Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) and Harris, Trump had a slight lead over both Biden and Harris.
When about 1,880 American adults were asked, 'Who would you vote for if the presidential election is held today?', 45% of Trump and 41% of Biden answered, 'I don't know who to shoot' 14%.
Considering President Biden's low popularity and the margin of error of the investigation, Trump himself is not at all relieved.
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Prior to this, a survey conducted jointly by the New York Times (NYT) and Siena College from July 5 to 7 showed that Biden had a slightly higher lead.
In a poll of 849 voters voting in the Democrat-Republican primary, 44% Biden and 41% Trump.
(Error range +/- 4.1%)
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In this NYT-Siena University survey, 16 percent of Republican supporters said they would vote for Biden, vote for a third or not vote, or do not know what to do if Trump was nominated.
Among Democrats, 8% said they wouldn't be able to shoot only Biden.
More than half of Republican supporters in the poll said they wanted someone other than Trump for the 2024 presidential nomination.
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64% of Republicans under the age of 35 and 65% of Republicans with a college degree or higher said they wanted a candidate other than Trump in the primary.
'I can't support Trump in the 2024 election, who is still calling for election fraud.
People who said that no matter how much the left-wing Democrats hate it, they can't take pictures of an asshole like Trump,' started looking for a more reasonable conservative candidate than Trump.
New York Times columnist Ross Douttt analyzed in his column "Why Trump is weakening" that his obsession with 'election fraud' claims was poison to himself.
The January 6 riot investigation by Congress and the Justice Department did not bring Trump to court, but prevented him from moving forward on the 6th of January, thereby disabling Trump.
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Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is seen by the US political circle as a strong opposition to Trump.
He attended Yale University and Harvard Law School, and enlisted in the Navy, serving in the Iraq War and Guantanamo Base.
If Trump is Terminator 1.0, DeSantis is said to be an upgraded version of the T-1000.
This problematic person will be analyzed separately in <Newsship> later.
(Composition/Editing: Hyunsik Lee, D Contents Producer / Content Design: Jisoo Ok)