Preparations are already underway in the Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporozhye, which have been under the control of Russian forces for months, to organize a referendum that could lead to either their separation within a new entity or their annexation to Russia, in a repeat of the scenario of the Crimea and the Donbass region, while Kyiv and its Western allies narrow their options in the face of what has become It seems a fait accompli imposed by Moscow by force.
After an earlier step by the administration installed by the Russians in Kherson, the administration loyal to them in Zaporozhye announced on Monday its intention to organize a referendum by the fall in order to join Russia.
Yevgeny Palitsky, head of the Civil and Military Administration in Zaporozhye, said that he had signed an order for the Central Election Commission to begin work on organizing the referendum, and Palitsky had announced in mid-July that he had taken a decision to hold the poll in early autumn.
Map showing Kherson and Zaporozhye (Al Jazeera) provinces
poll date
The pro-Russian authorities in the two southern Ukrainian provinces did not specify an exact date for the referendum, but there are expectations that it will take place in the first half of next September, and it seemed that preparations for this event were in full swing.
And the British newspaper, The Guardian, quoted officials in the local administration in Zaporozhye that they intend to organize the referendum in the province even if Russian forces do not fully control it, while the mayor of the Ukrainian city of Melitipol said that the Ukrainian resistance forced the Russians to modify their plans for the referendum.
Russian forces took control of the city of Kherson and parts of its countryside in the early days of the war that Russia started on February 24. According to the Guardian, the Russians currently control about two-thirds of the area of Zaporozhye Province, but the city of the same name is still under the control of Ukrainian forces.
The city of Kherson before the war had 300,000 people, and now there are about 100,000 residents left, and it is the only major Ukrainian city that Russia controlled without suffering significant damage.
The two regions are of strategic importance. Kherson, which is located on the Black Sea and the Dnipro River, to the north of the Crimea;
An important industrial area, including the "North Canal" bridge, which cut off fresh water supplies to Crimea, which Russia unilaterally annexed in 2014.
As for Zaporozhye, which is located on the Dnipro River, and has the largest nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe, it is also an important industrial area, and before the war it had about 750,000 residents.
"Self-determination"
Statements and decisions issued from the highest levels indicate that Russia is on its way to repeating the scenario of Crimea and Donbass in southern Ukraine, despite Ukrainian and Western warnings that any step in this direction will be considered illegitimate and will be met with a response.
In 2014, Russia organized a referendum in Crimea and then annexed it in the same year, and returned the ball in the Donbass region, and last February, days before launching what it calls a "special military operation", Moscow officially recognized the "Donetsk People's Republic" and The "Luhansk People's Republic" was declared by the separatists 8 years ago.
Last July, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that "the geography has changed", and that his country's interest goes beyond the Donbass region in the east to Kherson and Zaporizhia, adding that his country will protect the regions that "determine their own destiny."
On the ground, in parallel with the preparations for the referendum, the Russians are consolidating their presence in Kherson and Zaporozhye through various measures, including granting Russian citizenship to residents of the two provinces by decree of President Vladimir Putin, and imposing Russian administrative and banking systems.
Regarding the possible scenarios for Kherson and Zaporozhye, Ukrainian political analyst Konstantin Skorkin said that there are two scenarios that Russia has tried;
The first is the Donbass scenario in which a referendum is organized to declare the "Kherson People's Republic", and the second scenario is the annexation either through a presidential decree or through a referendum similar to the 2014 Crimean referendum.
The British Financial Times says that the model of occupation in Kherson has been used before in Crimea and in the Donbass since 2014, including Russian passports, currency, television, Internet, banking, and changing road signs to Russian instead of Ukrainian.
nuclear protection
According to the British Guardian newspaper, Russia's annexation of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions and their protection with nuclear weapons will complicate Ukraine's mission to restore them.
In turn, BBC television quoted retired British general Richard Baroness that Russia might respond with small nuclear weapons to any Ukrainian counterattack in the southern regions that might be annexed.
Ukraine and the West options
Fearing the loss of large additional areas of its territory, Ukraine is racing to prevent the Russians from imposing a fait accompli in the southern regions.
To this end, the Ukrainian forces have been launching counter-attacks in Kherson and Zaporozhye for weeks, and are talking about a shift in hostilities in their favor.
Concurrently, the Ukrainian demands to the West to pump more weapons and ammunition.
In return, Russia will send reinforcements from the Donbass region to the areas under its control in southern Ukraine, which was recently confirmed by Ukrainian officials and British intelligence.
On Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that if Moscow organizes referendums to annex the southern regions of the country, there will be no talks with it or its allies.
Zelensky added that his country adheres to its position of not ceding any land to Russia.
As for Kyiv's allies, the margin of action to prevent Russia from implementing its plans in the Ukrainian regions seems small and limited to sanctions, especially with the exclusion of the United States and other Western countries from fighting alongside Ukraine to avoid a possible military clash with Russia, and instead providing Ukrainian forces with modern weapons that can help them. to stop the Russian attacks.
During the past five months, the West imposed extensive sanctions on Russia, which had a negative impact on its economy - according to US and European assessments - but did not deter it from continuing the war on Ukraine.
And last July, US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that Washington had intelligence that Russia was taking steps to annex Ukrainian areas it seized during the current war.
Kirby added that Russia is taking steps in the Ukrainian regions that its forces controlled, similar to what it did when it annexed the Crimea, referring in this regard to the installation of officials loyal to it, the establishment of branches of Russian banks, the imposition of dealing in rubles, and control of communications, as well as forcing the population to Issuance of Russian passports.
In turn, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and other officials warned Russia that it would pay an additional price if it annexed new Ukrainian regions, and this was most likely referring to the tightening of sanctions against it.
In this context, the American newspaper "The Washington Post" indicated to the growing fears in Washington and Kiev that the West is not in a position to avoid a turning point in this war represented in Russia's annexation of Ukrainian regions.
She said that fears are growing that if Russia declares its sovereignty over the southern Ukrainian regions, it will use the autumn and winter months to tighten its grip on those regions, and Ukraine will be in a difficult position to regain its lands.
Time is on Putin's side
The newspaper quoted Republican Representative Michael Waltz as saying that time is on the side of Russian President Vladimir Putin, and that the occupation of Ukrainian lands becomes over time a fait accompli.
The Washington Post also reported that US President Joe Biden's administration officials confirm that they are exploring ways to respond to several possibilities, including Russia's annexation of Ukrainian regions, but the newspaper said that there is little evidence that Russia's declaration of sovereignty over Ukrainian territory will radically change the course of the war, or that the threat Annexation alone could justify a dramatic increase in military support for Kiev.
According to the newspaper, officials in the White House, State Department, Defense and US intelligence do not see that Russia's annexation of occupied areas will be a turning point in the current war, and they express confidence that continuing to supply Ukraine with weapons will enable its President Volodymyr Zelensky to achieve his goals.