China News Service, Shanghai, August 8 (Sun Guogen and Chen Jing) Chinese and foreign scientists have jointly conducted a multi-center future climate change simulation study in East Asia and found that high temperature at night will increase the risk of people's death.
They found that as the climate warms, both the frequency and intensity of nighttime high temperatures will rise significantly, which in turn will substantially increase the burden of heat-related disease.
The research results obtained by the research groups of Professor Kan Haidong and Professor Chen Renjie from the School of Public Health of Fudan University, in conjunction with Seoul National University, the University of Tokyo, Europe and the United States and other research institutions, can provide an important scientific basis for the assessment of climate change health risks and the formulation of relevant adaptation measures.
It is reported that the research results have been published in the latest issue of the international academic journal "The Lancet-Planet Health".
Kan Haidong said the research team collected daily non-accidental death data from 28 major cities in three East Asian countries (China, Japan and South Korea).
For the analysis of future scenarios, the team innovatively used the temporal interpolation and spatial downscaling methods of temperature data to calculate the daily average temperature and changes in the intensity of hot nights.
Study baseline results showed that in four regions (southern China, northern China, South Korea, and Japan), there was a significant positive association between short-term exposure to hot nights and population deaths, and the negative health effects of hot nights were independent of daily mean temperature .
It is reported that the research team combined the baseline mortality information of each city to estimate the change in the death burden related to hot nights under two future climate change scenarios.
Their results show that the death attributable fraction associated with hot nights exceeds the average daily temperature by 4.84% under the moderate-intensity carbon emission control scenario.
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