As a culmination of several rounds of talks hosted by the State of Qatar since last March, the transitional Chadian government and representatives of political movements signed - on Monday in the Qatari capital - a peace agreement called the "Doha Peace Agreement and the participation of political and military movements in the comprehensive sovereign national dialogue in Chad." ".

How did the dialogue and reconciliation initiative begin?

Following the death of Chadian President Idriss Deby Itno on April 20, 2021 as a result of injuries he sustained while inspecting army positions in the north of the country, a transitional military council was formed headed by his son, Mohamed Deby, 37, to preside over the country for an 18-month period ending with elections.

The President of the Transitional Military Council launched an initiative for national dialogue, calling on all political parties - including armed movements and rebel groups - to participate in the national dialogue, as well as establishing a minister for national reconciliation and appointing him as an adviser for reconciliation and dialogue at the Presidency of the Republic.

In January 2022, Deby announced in a speech to his people that the inclusive national dialogue would start on February 15, 2022, with the aim of achieving reconciliation in the country and paving the way for presidential and legislative elections.

The peace agreement paves the way for a comprehensive national dialogue between the Chadian parties (Reuters)

Who are the parties to the Chadian reconciliation?

Since its independence, Chad has not witnessed a peaceful transfer of power, and this is why political parties and rebel movements abound, due to the nature of the approach that led the country from a capricious military rule to a tyrannical one that excludes all the forces that oppose it.

The military-political movements that were invited to the dialogue were estimated at about 52, and the "Fact" movement - Front pour l'Alternance et la Concorde au Tchad - comes at the top of this list, some of which were in the form of alliances launched From some countries and with a convergent orientation, in addition to 200 political parties and civil gatherings from the inside and the diaspora, with a number of up to 300 people from all parties welcoming and agreeing to participate, and former Chadian President Jokoni Ouadye was appointed to head the committee concerned with contacting the military movements that welcomed the participation.

What are the most prominent provisions of the Doha Agreement?

There is no doubt that a dialogue took place at the beginning between the parties about the projects put forward by these parties, and the gap seemed wide between some of them and the government project. However, the Qatari mediation made a great effort to bridge distances and bridge the gaps, by sorting proposals, arranging priorities, sending reassurances and deepening trust.

On August 8, the dialogue concluded, and the most prominent provisions of the agreement were:

  • A complete and final cessation of hostilities as soon as the agreement is signed, with the commitment of the signatories not to target each other at home or abroad.

  • The process of disarmament, demobilization and reintegration takes place in two phases:


    First

    : Starting from the date of signing the agreement, the political and military movements begin the process of submitting statements to the committee to follow up on the implementation of the Doha Agreement.


    The second

    : The political and military movements, after the agreement in the comprehensive national dialogue in N'Djamena, provide the Advisory Committee to Follow up on the Implementation of the Doha Agreement with lists of the numbers of their fighters, weapons and their locations, in coordination with the neighboring countries in which they are located.

  • Confidence-building measures and security arrangements

    : The parties agreed that the Military Council would ensure the leaders and members of the movements adopt and implement an amnesty law that includes all judicial convictions and charges related to participating in the rebellion or assaulting the security and safety of the state, in addition to the necessary measures to ensure the physical safety of the members of the movements that signed the agreement, their property and their relatives On their return to Chad, as well as a special system for delegates of the movements, arranging their ease of movement, and the freedom to establish a political party for those who wish to do so.

  • Comprehensive National Dialogue

    : The Military Council and the signatory parties to the agreement pledged to make all efforts to organize a comprehensive national dialogue, whose decisions would be binding on all parties in N’Djamena as soon as possible, provided that the physical organization of the comprehensive national dialogue and the management of its work on a consensual, transparent and comprehensive basis that satisfies all parties Participation, specific to 20 items set as an agenda for the comprehensive national dialogue that will be held in N’Djamena, the most prominent of which are:


    the radical reform of the army, the issue of reviewing the charter of the transitional period, the issue of the ineligibility of members of the transitional bodies to run in the first elections to take place after the transitional period, and the formation of a government of national reconciliation after the conclusion of the dialogue comprehensive national.

  • The document concluded with mechanisms to follow up on the Doha Agreement, and provided for the establishment of an advisory committee to follow up on the implementation of the Doha Agreement, consisting of 9 people, as follows: 3 from the Military Council, 3 from the movements that signed the agreement, and 3 representatives of the international community that participated in the peace process in Doha, The committee will be chaired by a representative of the international community.

    One of the most important tasks that the Committee will undertake is to oversee the implementation of the Convention, in addition to the disarmament, demobilization and reintegration process.

The agreement included an immediate, complete and final cessation of hostilities (Reuters)

What are the chances of success of the Doha Agreement in ending the crisis in Chad?

Chadian history mentions that disputes are usually resolved by military force and not by dialogue. Therefore, the Doha agreement inaugurates a new phase in Chadian history, which will lay a brick in correcting methodologies and philosophies of dealing with national differences, even if it does not achieve what is required of it, but it establishes a new stage.

It is reported that about 40 movements signed the agreement, and 19 movements rejected it and did not sign it, led by the “Fact” movement, the largest of the rebel movements, and issued a statement thanking the international mediators and the host country Qatar and blaming the military council for its lack of seriousness and the mobilization of weightless groups, and perhaps The most prominent reason for withdrawing from the signature is the refusal of the Military Council to introduce amendments in a number of points:

  • The issue of the ineligibility of members of the transitional bodies to run in the first elections after the transitional period.

  • Cancellation of the Comprehensive National Dialogue Organizing Committee in its current form to make room for the Quartet Partnership (the government and its allies, civil society, opposition political parties at home, and political and military movements).

  • Confirming the sovereignty of the comprehensive national dialogue.

  • An equal distribution of the number of delegates among the various stakeholders in the comprehensive national dialogue.

  • Amendment of the charter of the transitional period.

  • Restructuring the defense and security forces into a true republican national army.

  •  Release prisoners of conscience (journalists and politicians) and prisoners of war.


    These are points included in the agreement document in the agenda of the comprehensive national dialogue that will be held in N'Djamena.


What are the threats to the agreement?

Despite the importance of the dialogue that was completed in Doha, and we will see you on its successes at the comprehensive national dialogue conference in N'Djamena, there are factors that affect the achievement of the strategic goal, which is to end all forms of war and resort to the language of reason and dialogue, are:

  • The state of political turmoil in the Chad Basin region, the coast and Sudan in the east, which are igniting factors, not calming factors.

  • Foreign interventions and international conflicts in the region. The French agenda is present, the Russian is working quietly, and perhaps the UAE is behind the retired Libyan Colonel Khalifa Haftar, who supports FACT, according to many sources.

  • Historical grievances and lack of trust between the parties may need time and mediators who have the care, impartiality, wisdom and knowledge of the parties' differences.

Finally

The Chadian differences are old, deep and complex. Therefore, what happened in Doha must be considered the beginning of a deeper understanding of the Chadian problems, and that they need to re-read their national agenda, and the agreement is undoubtedly a great gain that must be built upon.