Presidential in Kenya: a test election which promises to be disputed

A bus drives past posters of Kenyan presidential candidates Raila Odinga, left, and William Ruto, right, on a road in the Mathare neighborhood of Nairobi, Kenya, Monday, August 1, 2022. AP - Brian Inganga

Text by: Florence Morice Follow

6 mins

Kenyans are being called to ballot on Tuesday August 9 to choose the successor to Uhuru Kenyatta, who is completing his second and final term.

The ballot promises to be tight.

After the canceled 2017 election, it is also a test for Kenya's democratic institutions.

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From our correspondent in Nairobi,

Four candidates are on the starting line, but it is in reality a duel which is played Tuesday in Kenya for the presidential chair.

It pits

William Ruto

, 55, who is running for the post for the first time, against

Raila Odinga

, 77, a candidate for the 5ᵉ and probably last time.

The poster is atypical.

William Ruto is the outgoing vice-president, but is still a challenger.

Raila Odinga, once 

the "eternal opponent 

", now passes for the candidate for power, and this since Uhuru Kenyatta did an about-face by deciding to support him, his former rival, to the detriment of William Ruto, at who he had promised.

A new poster

This poster is also very significant of the reality of political alliances in Kenya: made of opportunism, reversals and handshakes.

The relationship between the two headliners in this election shows it well.

They were on opposite sides during Daniel Arap Moi's time, together in 2007 against Mwai Kibaki, and now come face to face again.

The poster is also unprecedented, because for the first time, no leading candidate is from the central province of Mount Kenya.

This region, mainly populated by members of the Kikuyu ethnic group, is the country's main voting pool.

It has provided three of the four presidents since independence.

The Mount Kenya electorate, which overwhelmingly voted for Uhuru Kenyatta in 2017, now appears divided.

William Ruto has gained popularity in the region in recent years.

Conversely, the outgoing Head of State may have multiplied the calls to vote for Odinga, but he is struggling to erase the mistrust that part of the population of this region has long harbored towards his former opponent - a mistrust he has long fueled itself.

This configuration makes the outcome of the vote uncertain,

“A matter of economic survival”

Whatever the name of the winner will be announced by the Kenyan Electoral Commission (IEBC) this election also promises to be very contested.

Because the stakes are high for the belligerents.

It is even “ 

a question of economic survival 

”, affirms Meron Elias, researcher at the ICG (International Crisis Group).

Ruto and his running mate Rigathi Gachagua have vowed to tackle the 'state capture ' 

they say happened during the Kenyatta presidency, an implicit threat to investigate business empire ties of the Kenyatta family with the state.

But Ruto himself could be the subject of an investigation, if Odinga prevails, on the origin of his wealth

, ”writes the researcher in a note.

Throughout the campaign, the two candidates have also competed in mutual accusations about the origin of their fortunes, each trying to convince voters of their desire to fight against the scourge of corruption, while Kenya is hard hit. by the crisis.

Inflation reached 8.3% in July, the price of gasoline and basic foodstuffs exploded.

People are struggling to make ends meet.

Many analysts believe that economic issues could even, this year, supplant the tribal question at the polls, considered decisive in past elections.

William Ruto surfed extensively on this dynamic.

For months, the candidate has been playing on his modest origins to proclaim himself champion of the "hustler nation", a nation of "resourceful people" able to take an interest in those who have the least, in the face of the alliance of dynasties embodied according to him by the duo Kenyatta-Odinga, both heirs of families which have dominated Kenyan political life since independence.

Growing apathy among the population

This narrative was not enough to stem a growing apathy among the population towards Kenyan politics, its betrayals and its disappointments.

The lack of enthusiasm is observed especially among the youth.

The number of registered voters aged 18 to 34 has fallen by more than 5% since the 2017 election, despite population growth of around 12%.

The disinformation operations that punctuated the campaign also fuel this mistrust.

On the ground, the campaign took place generally calmly, without major incident.

But it was marked online by a surge of

fake news

, sometimes violent, each camp having called on armies of trolls to influence opinion.

As the polls approached, supporters of the two main candidates widely circulated messages on social media accusing their opponents of planning to rig the results of the vote.

This climate is likely to tarnish the credibility of the election in the eyes of the public, and pushes many observers to seriously consider that the loser - whoever he is - could challenge the election in court in the event of a tight result.

Post-election crises are recurrent in Kenya.

In 2017, for the first time in Africa, the Supreme Court canceled the ballot, pointing to "

 irregularities 

" and asked that it be reorganized.

From this perspective, this year's election is a test for the Electoral Commission of Kenya (IEBC).

It promises to have learned the lessons of this failure and put in place all the necessary safeguards.

But several last-minute controversies over the reliability of the electoral register, or on the voting results forms have contributed to fueling mistrust in this institution.

Kenya, “anchor point for stability, security and democracy”

As for the hypothesis of a post-electoral crisis marked by violence, it remains in people's minds in a country still marked by the extent of the violence that bereaved the 2007 election. In May, the NCIC (Independent Commission for national cohesion and integration) created in 2008, assessed the probability of violence during the electoral period at 53%.

But several developments in the political climate also give observers reason to hope that if there is a dispute, it will take place this time in the courts rather than in the streets: the division of the Kikuyu electorate which reshuffles the cards of ethnic divisions , the apathy seen during the campaign, and greater credit given to the Kenyan judiciary, since it demonstrated its independence by canceling the 2017 poll, or more recently,

Last Friday, fifteen embassies, including that of the United States, nevertheless deemed it useful last Friday in a joint press release to plead for " 

free, fair and peaceful

 " elections in Kenya, " 

anchor point for stability , security and democracy, not only in the region, but also on the continent or across the world 

”.

Despite the crisis, Kenya is still considered an economic locomotive for East Africa, and is also an island of stability in a tormented region.

Especially since the president recently positioned Kenya as a mediator in the conflicts that are tearing Ethiopia and the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo apart.

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