After the Vienna nuclear negotiations were suspended about 5 months ago, the chief Iranian negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani, pulled his way back to the negotiations, yesterday, Wednesday, to participate in the talks to revive the nuclear agreement and to bring the talks out of the dead end they had reached since last March.

The delegations of the countries affiliated to the nuclear agreement are preparing to participate in the new round of Vienna negotiations, based on the proposal of the European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, who Iranian observers consider to have opened a last window on the nuclear file.

Following the failure of the indirect Iranian-American negotiations brokered by Europe in Doha last month, tension between Washington and Tehran reached high levels, as the latter responded to the recent US sanctions by pumping gas into hundreds of advanced centrifuges of the first and sixth generations, as well as confirming the ability to manufacture a nuclear bomb. Declaring that she does not intend to.

With the return of the nuclear negotiations delegations to Vienna, Al Jazeera Net polled a number of experts and analysts about the possible scenarios for the future of the Iranian nuclear file, and whether the new round would lead to the revival of the 2015 agreement.

Revival of the agreement

Despite the pessimism of a large segment of Iranian circles about a full return to the nuclear agreement that former US President Donald Trump withdrew from in 2018, the scenario of reviving the agreement remains in place, according to Iranian researcher Mustafa Khosh Jashem.

The researcher confirmed, to Al-Jazeera Net, that a return to implementing all commitments in the nuclear agreement is possible in the event that all US sanctions on Iran are lifted, and Washington provides guarantees that it will not be violated again, adding that with the approach of the midterm elections scheduled for November in the United States, his country More than ever, you feel the need to have guarantees.

He pointed out that US opinion polls show the Republican victory in the upcoming elections, which may lead to a repetition of their experience with the joint action plan.

Negotiations continue

The Iranian researcher described the chances of reviving the nuclear agreement during the new round of the Vienna negotiations as very slim, explaining that he expected to continue US pressure on Tehran to discourage it from its demands, adding that European efforts to revive the agreement come to lift sanctions on Iranian energy and deliver about 1.5 million barrels of Iranian oil to Iran. Old Continent.

He added that Tehran had removed the issue of removing the Revolutionary Guards from the US terrorism list from the priority of the demands put forward in the nuclear negotiations three months ago, ruling out that the next round of the Vienna negotiations would end with announcing the failure of the negotiating option and the death of the nuclear agreement.

The Iranian researcher considered the continuation of efforts to revive the nuclear agreement that it will constitute the second and most prominent scenario during the next three months, and the nuclear negotiations file will remain open during it, stressing that the Iranian and American sides do not want to announce the failure of the negotiations and that they will return to the indirect negotiating table in the event of failure to reach in the coming days. to an agreement.

Confusion and hesitation

For his part, the researcher in American affairs, Amir Ali Abu Al-Fath, believes that the great rift between the American and Iranian demands prevents the revival of the nuclear agreement at the present time, and he expected the nuclear negotiations to enter what he called “a stage of confusion without achieving little progress” during the coming period.

He attributed the reason for the nuclear negotiations parties' clinging to it - despite knowing that it will not achieve any of the demands of the Iranian and American parties - to the unwillingness of the Six-Party Group and Iran to move to the post-nuclear agreement stage.

Abul-Fateh accused the US side of relying on the collapse of the Iranian economy as a result of the sanctions to discourage Tehran from its demands to revive the nuclear agreement, and expected that the Vienna nuclear negotiations would join the fate of the six-party negotiations on the North Korean nuclear program.

He considered that Washington's priorities regarding Tehran have changed compared to the period before the signing of the nuclear agreement, explaining that the United States has become a choice between accepting Iran as a nuclear power, which is the bad option, and lifting sanctions on the Iranian economy as the worst option, while it considered that the bad option until 2015.

Failed Failed

For his part, the researcher at the "Contemporary History" Foundation for Studies, Reda Hajjet, considered that Tehran and Washington have moved away from a win-win scenario, and that any possible agreement would be a "failed failure" as the fourth scenario in front of the nuclear negotiations.

Hajjat ​​explained - to Al Jazeera Net - that the Iranian and American sides can agree on Tehran's suspension of a specific number of nuclear steps in exchange for Washington lifting a set of sanctions on Iran's banking system and its oil exports.

step for step

The Iranian researcher pointed out that the "step for step" policy would constitute the fifth scenario for reviving the nuclear agreement, stressing that the two parties to the agreement can gradually return to the 2015 agreement and that Washington's lifting of all sanctions against Iran will be met by the latter's retraction of all its nuclear steps it took in response to the withdrawal. Trump out of the deal.

The death of the agreement

As for the scenario based on a pessimistic view, the researcher at the Contemporary History Foundation for Studies describes it as the failure of the negotiations and the death of the nuclear agreement, stressing that if Washington insists on not lifting sanctions on Iran and evades providing guarantees that it will not repeat its withdrawal from any possible agreement, Tehran will take New nuclear steps that would destroy the nuclear agreement permanently.

He explained that in the event of announcing the collapse of the negotiation option, the Western side would proceed to impose harsher sanctions on Iran and refer its nuclear file to the Security Council, which could open the door wide for the "Zionist entity" (Israel) to take provocative steps that the Iranian response to it might lead to ignite the war in the region.

While Hajjat ​​believes that the collapse of the negotiations and the death of the nuclear agreement are the most prominent among the six scenarios, researchers Jashem and Abul-Fath consider the chances of the continuation of the negotiations scenario being high compared to the other scenarios.