Saudi Arabia-led OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and major oil-producing countries such as Russia will hold a meeting on the 3rd to discuss crude oil production.
Crude oil prices have been trending downward due to concerns about economic slowdown in the United States and China, but we do not know when they will rise depending on the situation of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Will oil-producing countries actually increase production, or will they maintain the status quo?
Ask an expert for their opinion.
(Dubai bureau, Kazuhiro Yamao, London bureau, Hiroko Matsuzaki)
Focus on production volume from September onwards
OPEC Plus, which is made up of OPEC and non-member oil-producing countries such as Russia, will discuss crude oil production after September on the 3rd.
OPEC+ had planned to increase crude oil production by about 400,000 barrels per day each month, but at the meeting on June 30, the planned increase in September was brought forward, and production in July and August will be increased. The range has been widened to 648,000 barrels per day.
On the other hand, no policy has been set for production volume from September onwards, which will be a major focus this time.
Europe and the United States are pressing to increase production...
Europe and the United States, which have decided to embargo oil exports from Russia, are demanding further production increases, mainly in oil-producing Saudi Arabia.
In particular, President Biden of the United States visited Saudi Arabia last month (July) as gasoline prices continued to remain high, and asked major oil-producing countries in the Middle East, such as Iraq and the UAE = United Arab Emirates, to increase crude oil production. .
Saudi close to Russia
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and Russia are said to maintain close ties through OPEC+.
Consumer countries want increased production
Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) made up of major oil-consuming countries, said the following about the OPEC+ meeting.
“We believe that countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE can make a positive contribution to the global oil market, while some African countries, such as Nigeria and Angola, have not been able to increase production as planned. With proper management, it is possible to increase production.We hope that these countries with strong potential will increase their production,"
said Birol. As a producer, I would say 'additional production increase' to avoid a global recession."
Oil-producing countries are viewed as cautious
On the other hand, Amena Bakr, a journalist who has covered OPEC for many years and is familiar with the internal affairs of the Middle East and oil-producing countries, believes that oil-producing countries are not losing their cautious stance on a significant increase in production.
“OPEC+ recognizes that some countries are not meeting their production quotas, and that they are becoming limited in how much they can increase. Considering the impact, it is difficult to imagine that we will produce to the limit, and it seems that we will be cautious.”
Difficult to predict demand
Mr. Bakr also said, "Next year's crude oil demand is partly difficult to predict, and I think there is an idea that we want to see the situation for as long as possible."
Saudi-Russia deep ties
Further on relations between Saudi Arabia and Russia, the leaders of OPEC+, Bakr said:
"Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Abdul Aziz and Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Novak have a close personal relationship, and it is unlikely that Saudi Arabia will sacrifice its strong ties with Russia if the United States seeks to increase production. ”
Is there a possibility of a slight increase in production?
On the other hand, he said, ``For Russia, which wants to keep oil prices as high as possible, a small increase in production will not be a big problem. He expressed the view that Saudi Arabia may still show some consideration to the United States.
The results of the OPEC+ meeting will be announced on the evening of the 3rd, Japan time.