So far, the Riyadh-led Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its Moscow-led allies have resisted calls to open the floodgates further to stem inflation fueled by energy prices .

Month after month, the 23 members stuck to marginal openings of their floodgates.

But the current deal is coming to an end: On paper, they are back to pre-pandemic production levels.

In the spring of 2020, the group had chosen to leave millions of barrels of oil underground, so as not to flood the market with crude oil that it could not absorb due to a collapse in demand.

These drastic cuts are now a thing of the past and it is time to decide on a new trajectory.

After the flash meetings of the past few months, “there is a lot more uncertainty this time around,” notes Craig Erlam, analyst at Oanda.

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Scheduled by videoconference, the technical discussions are due to start at 1:00 p.m. Vienna time (11:00 GMT), headquarters of the cartel, before the ministerial meeting at 1:30 p.m.

A very courted kingdom

How will Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of the alliance and one of the only members with reserves, respond to the request from the White House and various Western pressures?

Far from his remarks on a "pariah" state after the assassination of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Joe Biden visited Saudi Arabia for the first time as President of the United States in mid-July.

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His goal: to convince the kingdom to pump more to curb soaring fuel prices.

"Ryad and its allies will have to decide whether to accede to its request by significantly increasing their production or to show solidarity with Russia by keeping the same line", summarizes Tamas Varga, at PVM Energy.

The meeting will show if "the group is still united, how determined it is to rebalance the market and if President Biden has any influence on the cartel", abounds Craig Erlam.

Last week, French President Emmanuel Macron was also on the move by receiving Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

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After a meeting denounced by human rights defenders, the two leaders said they wanted to "intensify cooperation" to "mitigate the effects in Europe, the Middle East and the world" of the war in Ukraine.

The shadow of recession

But the recent relative decline in oil prices, amid fears of recession, could push OPEC+ to play it safe.

The two world crude benchmarks were trading around the $100 per barrel threshold on Wednesday morning, far from the peaks reached in early March of around $140: around 07:10 GMT, Brent from the North Sea, crude benchmark in Europe, lost 0, 50% to 100.04 dollars a barrel, when its American counterpart, the WTI, fell 0.57% to 93.88 dollars a barrel.

Especially since the cartel is taking advantage of the current situation.

Saudi Arabia recorded strong growth in the second quarter of 2022, boosted by black gold.

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Whatever decision is taken, it "is likely to have little impact" on the markets, warns Mr. Erlam.

The alliance is struggling to respect the quotas displayed, due to prolonged political crises or even the lack of investment and maintenance of infrastructure during the pandemic.

Russian production, under the yoke of Western sanctions in connection with the invasion of Ukraine, is also reduced.

© 2022 AFP