In its latest issue, "Foreign Affairs" magazine published an article by two American researchers in which they dealt with the repercussions of the Russian war in Ukraine on China's strategy in its regional and global surroundings.

The article, which was written by Jude Blanchett, a researcher in China studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, and his colleague at the Center, Bonnie Lin, who specializes in Asian security affairs, stated that Beijing was in a position of self-defense immediately after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

This was evident in China's messages, which the two researchers described as "official, blunt and confused", as diplomats, propaganda experts and Chinese Foreign Ministry spokespeople themselves tried to find out the position of their leader, Xi Jinping, on the ongoing conflict.

Beijing has largely regained its balance some 6 months after the outbreak of the war with an end in sight, the article asserts.

Although China would prefer the war to end with a clear Russian victory, its second preferred option is to see the United States and Europe exhaust their military equipment in support of Ukraine, Blanchett and Lynn believe in their article.

Concerns and initiatives

The authors claim that Beijing has reached the conclusion that its external environment has become more dangerous, whatever the outcome of the war in Ukraine.

Chinese analysts believe that a rift has occurred in relations between Western democracies and non-democratic countries, including China and Russia.

China is concerned - according to a Foreign Affairs article - that the United States may take advantage of the situation to build economic, technological or security alliances in order to contain that rift.

Beijing believes that Washington and Taipei are deliberately stoking tension in the region by linking the attack on Ukraine directly to the security and safety of Taiwan, and it is concerned that growing international support for Taiwan could hamper its "reunification" plans with it.

The two researchers say that these perceptions of Western interference have put China on the offensive again, and from now on, China's foreign policy will be steadily determined by adopting a more "aggressive" approach to emphasize its interests, and pioneering new paths towards a global power aimed at surrounding strategic shipping lanes. narrowly controlled by the West.

It seemed clear that Beijing is reconsidering its orientations on more than one level since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Earlier in the current world, China had revealed a new strategic framework that it called the "Global Security Initiative".

Although the initiative is still in its early stages, it involves - according to a Foreign Affairs article - an attempt by the Chinese president to "undermine the world's confidence" in the United States as the party committed to ensuring regional and global stability, and aims to create a platform through which China can justify expanding the scope of its partnerships. private international.

Through this initiative, the Chinese president put something else on the American-led dialogue table about what the international system should look like after the war in Ukraine.

The issue in its essence lies in showing China itself as a stable force that can confront the "volatile" United States and its unpredictable behavior.

strengthening partnerships


The article deals with China's strategy in detail, noting that President Xi stressed in a speech last April that the strategic alignment between his country and Russia continues despite Putin's "disastrous" war in Ukraine.

Chinese officials have also made it clear that there is a direct link between NATO's expansion of its presence in Europe and the United States' growing alliance with its security partners in the Indo-Pacific region.

As part of the process of reconsidering its orientations after the invasion, China is accelerating pace to strengthen its partnerships with countries outside the Western camp, specifically countries in the global south.

The two researchers quote the former high-ranking official in the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Li Yucheng, as saying that the United States has been projecting its power at China's doorstep, and has fanned the Taiwan issue to test Beijing's endurance and patience.

Referring to Ukraine, Li lamented that "some big countries make empty promises to small countries, turn them into pawns, and even use them to fight proxy wars."

The article makes it clear that Beijing does not want to face the same fate if it finds itself in the midst of a struggle against Taiwan or any of its neighbors.

military power

The final element in rethinking China's foreign policy has to do with military power, with Beijing believing that the West is unable to understand or sympathize with what it sees as legitimate Russian security concerns, though Blanchett and Lin claim that there is no reason for Beijing to delude that the United States and its allies are They will deal with her concerns differently.

Because diplomacy is "ineffective", China may have to use force to assert its position, and this is especially true when it comes to Taiwan, where Beijing seems more concerned than ever about US intentions toward the island and what it sees as increasing provocations.

This has led to a debate among some Chinese foreign policy analysts about whether another crisis in the Taiwan Strait is imminent and, if so, how China should prepare.

It would be a mistake - as the article put it - to ignore China's warnings and threats of military action just because the previous warnings were not fulfilled.

Although an invasion of Taiwan is still a remote possibility, Beijing has many paths to escalation beyond direct conflict, including sending planes to fly over Taiwan territory.

And if Beijing takes tougher measures out of frustration with the latest US behavior, it could easily lead to a full-fledged crisis, according to the forecasts of the Foreign Affairs article.