For Al-Qaeda, the death of "Zawahiri is beyond the symbol"

• The leader of Al-Qaeda, the Egyptian Ayman al-Zawahiri, was killed in the night from Saturday to Sunday in Afghanistan by an American drone strike.

• Zawahiri was one of the world's most wanted terrorists and had led the jihadist nebula since the death of Osama Bin Laden in 2011.

• 20 Minutes

  analyzes the consequences of the death of this "historic leader", thanks to the analysis of terrorism expert Mathieu Guidère.

Monday evening, the president of the United States, Joe Biden, announced the death of the leader of Al-Qaeda.

Egyptian Ayman al-Zawahiri was killed overnight from Saturday to Sunday in Afghanistan by an American drone strike.

But what does the death of this historic jihadist mean for Al-Qaida?

takes stock of the implications of the elimination of this jihadist leader.

Who was Ayman Al-Zawahiri and why is his death so symbolic?

Ayman al-Zawahiri was one of the most wanted terrorists in the world.

The United States promised 25 million dollars for any information allowing him to be found.

He had taken the head of Al-Qaeda in 2011, after the death of Osama Bin Laden, killed by an American commando in Pakistan.

Not found for more than ten years, he was considered one of the masterminds of the September 11 attacks, which killed nearly 3,000 people in the United States.

"Zawahiri is beyond the symbol of contemporary terror, he is one of the founders of international Islamist terrorism with Bin Laden and a character who has marked the last thirty years of terrorism", underlines Mathieu Guidère.

Expert in the field and author of the

he recalls that Ayman al-Zawahiri was a "historical figure of Islamism", present on the jihadist scene for more than forty years.

Moreover, Ayman al-Zawahiri is "the one who knighted and gave the green light to almost all the branches of Al-Qaeda", adds Mathieu Guidère.

These branches, such as Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (Aqmi) or Al-Qaeda in Iraq, allow the terrorist organization to have local roots.

What does it change for Al-Qaeda and Islamist terrorism?

"It's a blow for central Al-Qaeda", assures Mathieu Guidère, who recalls that finding a leader of "the stature" of Ayman al-Zawahiri, who worked for forty years will be very difficult.

Especially since bin Laden was killed in 2011 and the number 3 of the organization in 2020. "The central command of Al-Qaeda is almost decimated" and the death of its leader foreshadows "probably the end of the parent company organisation ".

"For the branches, there will be no direct impact but they risk no longer being coordinated because it was he who chose the overall strategy of the organization," adds the terrorism expert.

Especially since Ayman al-Zawahiri, who had dubbed these branches, held the contacts and the authority that a possible successor might not have.

Consequently, "they will probably focus on local and no longer global terrorism", deciphers Mathieu Guidère.

Now, Al-Qaeda will observe forty days of mourning before finding a successor, underlines Mathieu Guidère who recalls that in general a terrorist leader has already "sensed" his successor well before his death.

"In September, we should have a new name," he adds.

But, whatever this name, he will certainly act as a dwarf in the face of this historic leader who has "marked generations of terrorists".

What consequences for the relationship between Washington and Kabul?

According to the Americans, Ayman al-Zawahiri lived in a three-storey house in Sherpur, an affluent neighborhood in the center of the Afghan capital, where several villas are occupied by high-ranking Taliban officials and commanders.

Its presence in Kabul constitutes a "clear violation" of the agreements concluded in Doha in 2020 with the Taliban, which had undertaken not to welcome Al-Qaida on their soil, noted the American Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid, for his part, accused the United States of having derogated from these agreements, by conducting a strike on their territory.

"These declarations are expected in the diplomatic game", underlines Mathieu Guidere.

“You don't do an operation like this without inside information.

It takes months of intelligence, people on the spot and above all that no one warns the target, ”lists the terrorism expert.

It is therefore likely that the Taliban have abandoned Al-Qaeda, as Washington had explicitly demanded.

“They try to avoid confrontation with the West, in particular with the Americans, and pass for moderates in the face of the Islamic State which is carrying out attacks against them”, explains the teacher-researcher.

Our dossier on Al-Qaida

Because in the region, as in many others, Al-Qaeda has gradually given way to IS, which positions itself as the "true banner of terrorism" in the country.

And if the elimination of the number one of Al-Qaeda is a real victory for the United States, which seeks to punish September 11, it creates a void.

However, underlines Mathieu Guidere, “terrorism abhors a vacuum: when you weaken an organization, you mechanically contribute to strengthening another”.

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• Terrorism

• Al-Qaeda

• Jihadism

• Afghanistan