More than twenty years after the end of the war, the rag is still burning between Serbia and Kosovo, its former province with an Albanian majority whose independence it unilaterally proclaimed in 2008 does not recognize.

The border between the two countries was the scene of renewed tensions on Sunday, July 31, as Kosovar police said they were the target of gunfire in the north as barricades were erected by hundreds of Serbs of Kosovo on roads leading to the crossing points of Jarinje and Brnjak.

What ignited the powder?

The Kosovo government's new border policy, which is supposed to come into effect on Monday.

According to these new rules from the Pristina authorities, anyone entering Kosovo with a Serbian identity card must replace it with a temporary document during their stay in the country.

Faced with the clashes that occurred on Sunday, the Kosovo government finally decided to postpone the entry into force of the measure for a month.

Hundreds of Kosovo Serbs set up barricades on the roads leading to the Jarinje and Brnjak crossings on July 31, 2022. © FMM Graphic Studio

But since the end of the war in 1999 (which caused more than 13,000 deaths, including 11,000 Albanians), the peace between Kosovo and Serbia remains fragile, and there are many stumbling blocks.

Last September, the north of Kosovo had already experienced strong tensions, punctuated by demonstrations and blockages of traffic at border posts, after Pristina's decision to ban Serbian license plates on its territory.

On Sunday, Kosovar Prime Minister Albin Kurti recalled that the brand new measure stems from the principle of reciprocity, with Serbia imposing the same requirements on Kosovars entering its territory.

While the Force deployed by NATO in Kosovo (KFor) warned of a "tense" security situation in the municipalities of the north of the country, the Serbian President, Aleksandar Vucic, meanwhile, spoke of a "worn atmosphere boiling", and added that "Serbia will win" if the Serbs are attacked.

For his part, the Kosovar Prime Minister accused the Serbian leader of triggering "trouble", and wrote on Facebook that "the next hours, days and weeks can be difficult and problematic".

However, specialists believe that a real escalation of tensions is unlikely, the scenario recurring on the same pattern quite frequently.

Many sticking points and a fragile peace

"Every three or six months, we have this kind of tension because a measure is proposed on one side and refused on the other", explains Alexis Troude, professor of geopolitics at the University of Versailles-Saint-Quentin. -en-Yvelines (UVSQ) and Balkan specialist.

"On the spot, the Pristina authorities enter the municipalities of northern Kosovo, populated by a majority of Serbs, and the latter set up barricades... It's always the same scenario", he continues.

According to the researcher, these clashes have their source in the agreements signed in 2012 in Brussels between Pristina and Belgrade.

Since then, negotiations have taken place under the aegis of the European Union and the resulting measures are not always to the liking of the two parties.

Some have difficulty getting through to the Serbian minority, which still lives in northern Kosovo but remains loyal to Belgrade, on which it depends financially.

The situation in Kosovo has "never been so complex" for Serbia and the Serbs who live there, declared Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic on Sunday in a speech to the nation.

In general, the tensions are based on a misunderstanding.

"The Serbs believe that the 2012 agreements [which stipulate that for Kosovo to be recognized, Pristina must ensure the autonomy of three northern municipalities, inhabited mainly by Serbs, editor's note] have not been respected", develops Alexis Troude.

"However, the Pristina authorities, who have never considered this option, have gone so far as to say for several weeks that this point is obsolete and that these municipalities will never obtain their autonomy."

For Belgrade, Kosovo remains a southern province of Serbia, while Kosovo is working to be recognized by the international community (today 96 out of 193 states recognize it), and has seen its efforts regularly neutralized by the Serbian neighbor since the end of the war.

Twenty-four years ago, tensions between the Albanian Muslim majority and Kosovo's Serb minority escalated into violence, leading to Serbian military intervention.

The strong repression against Albanian civilians triggers a 78-day NATO bombing campaign on Serbia, forcing Belgrade strongman Slobodan Milosevic to order the withdrawal of Serbian troops from Kosovo.

The ceasefire obtained in June 1999 was followed by the deployment of large NATO forces.

The region was then placed under UN administration.

In 2008, it unilaterally declared its independence with the support of the United States and most Western countries.

What Serbia has never accepted, supported by Russia and China.

A "geopolitical game" that Russia is also playing

Relations between Belgrade and Pristina have therefore never been normalized.

If the independence of Kosovo is now recognized by most Western countries, Serbia refuses to do so, as does Russia, which is seen as "political support for Serbia".

So much so that Belgrade is today the only European capital to support Vladimir Putin since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.

Tensions are very high currently between Serbia and Kosovo, with reports of barricades going up in Serbian areas of the province and clashes.

It's an evolving situation tonight but it's possible that Serbia has upped the ante as part of a geopolitical move coordinated with Russia

— Mark Urban (@MarkUrban01) July 31, 2022 E

In this context, the interests at stake in the conflict between Serbia and Kosovo are perhaps not insignificant.

On Twitter, Mark Urban, a BBC journalist, raises the possibility "that Serbia has raised the stakes in the context of a geopolitical action coordinated with Russia".

For his part, Alexis Troude evokes "a geopolitical game" with on the one hand the United States and the United Kingdom which reinforce the authority of Pristina, and on the other Belgrade, supported more and more strongly by Russia and China.

These two powers have always made it a point of honor to enforce United Nations Security Council Resolution 1244, which declares Serbia's borders inviolable.

For about two years, they have also been investing steadily in Serbia, which has led them to have increasingly strong power over the authorities in Belgrade.

For Alexis Troude, "Vladimir Putin is realizing what he announced in 2002".

Twenty years ago, the Russian president detailed his theory of the "near abroad" corresponding to Moscow's historical sphere of influence, in which is included Serbia, the closest state to Russia with Hungary.

If the main (financial) investors are still French, German or American, the specialist in the Balkans recalls that the Chinese and the Russians use geostrategy by investing in two key sectors: energy and transport.

"At the time when Moscow cuts off the gas tap in Western Europe, the Turkstream gas pipeline is working for the Serbs, which helps to win the Russians a lot of favorable opinions."

"NATO is already there and is already intervening"

All the elements leading to the current resurgence of tensions are taken very seriously by NATO countries.

In a press release issued on Sunday evening, the Force responsible for establishing peace and ensuring stability in the region since 1999 (KFor) said it was ready to intervene if necessary on a mandate from the United Nations Security Council.

"Today, KFor is still helping to maintain a safe and secure environment in Kosovo and to preserve freedom of movement there for the benefit of all," she recalls, saying she is "ready to intervene if stability is threatened" in the north of the country.

pic.twitter.com/LK1MB2cSoJ

— @NATO - KFOR (@NATO_KFOR) July 31, 2022

"NATO is already there and is already intervening," explains Alexis Troude, who recalls that KFor operates border control and security in the region.

Kosovo is also home to Camp Bondsteel, which is NATO's largest base outside the United States, says the Balkan specialist.

"Bondsteel, 8,000 men are permanently at the heart of Kosovo".

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