• Emmanuel Macron will receive Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for a working dinner this Thursday at the Elysée.

  • Suspected of having ordered the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in October 2018, MBS has since been ostracized by Western leaders.

    But the war in Ukraine and fears of an oil and gas shortage this winter have changed the situation.

  • His visit to France is, among other things, part of a "gradual rehabilitation strategy" believe David Rigoulet-Roze, associate researcher at Iris and editor-in-chief of the journal

    Orients Strategiques

    , and Agnès Levallois, vice-president of the Institute for Research and Mediterranean Middle East Studies, interviewed by

    20 Minutes

    .

In times of war, we sometimes witness improbable reversals of alliances.

The Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, owes his sudden return to favor with Westerners to Vladimir Putin.

Both an ally and a competitor of Saudi Arabia within OPEC +, the Russian president has, in turn, returned some influence to the Arab prince by attacking Ukraine.

Indeed, the West has sanctioned Russia by cutting itself off from its oil, and now badly needs that of the Gulf.

Ostracized by Western leaders since the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in October 2018, which he is suspected of having ordered, MBS has just checked Joe Biden in two weeks and set foot on European soil.

Here he is now in Paris, waiting for Emmanuel Macron's return to dine with him.

How to explain such a reversal?

What interests do Saudi Arabia and France have in getting closer?

And who leads the dance?

David Rigoulet-Roze, Associate Researcher at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations (Iris) and Editor-in-Chief of the journal

Orients Strategiques

, and Agnès Levallois, Vice-President of the Institute for Research and Mediterranean Middle East Studies , answered questions from

20 Minutes

.

Why does Mohammed bin Salman come to France?

The Saudi Crown Prince's stopover in Paris is not an isolated event.

“This is part of its strategy of progressive rehabilitation”, explains David Rigoulet-Roze, listing “the meeting with Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey in June then the visit of Joe Biden in mid-July”.

And so now a mini-European tour, since he went through Greece before Paris.

Without having a "vital need" to erase the "stain" of the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi, MBS wants to become a "presentable interlocutor at the level of heads of state", supports Agnès Levallois.

The one who is also a research director at the foundation for strategic research sees the hand of King Salman, eager to "prepare the succession in a peaceful context for Saudi Arabia".

But the prince does not come only to take care of his image.

If oil production will of course be on the menu, “the Iranian question, which worries Saudi Arabia, will be discussed”, indicates David Rigoulet-Roze.

"MBS will ask Emmanuel Macron to be vigilant about the nature of the agreement" on Iranian nuclear, says Agnès Levallois.

Finally, while Saudi Arabia has "undertaken a project to diversify its economy", it "needs investors, large companies", recalls the vice-president of the IReMMO.

What is France's interest in reconnecting with him?

Even before Joe Biden and Recep Erdogan, Emmanuel Macron was the first to put MBS back in the game, during a visit to Jeddah on December 4.

The objective, "to have an ambitious diplomacy in the region" and to bring back "Saudi Arabia to Lebanon", indicates Agnès Levallois.

"There are imperatives on the issue of regional security and stability in Lebanon," adds David Rigoulet-Roze.

Emmanuel Macron could therefore be tempted to include Saudi participation in the economy of the country of cedar in the discussion on Iran.

But above all, Westerners are guided by "energy concerns with the coming winter", recalls the researcher associated with Iris.

Aramco, the world's largest oil company, is Saudi.

However, if "the first customer of Saudi Arabia was China until two or three months ago, the flows have been redirected towards Europe".

The country also increased its production, a "goodwill gesture" which resulted in "an additional 650,000 barrels on the market".

Insufficient for Westerners, but difficult for MBS to go beyond.

"It will not come into conflict with Russia, its partner in OPEC +", underlines Agnès Levallois.

Who dictates the agenda for these reunions?

Mohammed ben Salmane arrived on French territory while Emmanuel Macron was still in Africa.

Coup de force of the Saudi, or will of the French to put him in the waiting room?

"He is not received with the same honors as MBZ [Mohammed ben Zayed, the emir of Abu Dhabi]", who had dined in the park of the Palace of Versailles, estimates Agnès Levallois.

"We feel that there is discomfort with the hostility of NGOs, the visit was announced very late," adds David Rigoulet-Roze, even if it was negotiated upstream.

On the one hand, "MBS knows that his arrival should not put Emmanuel Macron in difficulty" while the latter extends his hand to him, adds the vice-president of the IReMMO.

On the other hand, he is the big winner of this meeting, capitalizing on the fact that Westerners are "hard-pressed on the energy issue", she analyzes.

“He wants to show that he is essential,” concludes David Rigoulet-Roze.

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  • World

  • Emmanuel Macron

  • Saudi Arabia

  • Mohammad bin Salman

  • Iran

  • Oil

  • jamal khashoggi