Yesterday, Wednesday, the Iraqis lived a difficult day, after thousands of followers of the Sadrist movement stormed the heavily fortified Green Zone in central Baghdad and entered the parliament building, while several scenarios emerged to end the crisis of forming the new government.

The nomination of the Coordinating Framework Forces, the former leader of the Dawa Party, Muhammad Shiaa al-Sudani, to head the next government, sparked widespread protests and tense positions from the Sadrist movement, which saw this step as a major provocation to its leader Muqtada al-Sadr, who was absent from government formation consultations.

While hundreds of demonstrators gathered on Wednesday afternoon in Tahrir Square in Baghdad, on the side adjacent to the Green Zone, they suddenly headed towards the Green Zone, reaching the Parliament building, while there was a state of anxiety and confusion among the Iraqi street, especially as some families were inside the Green Zone, She moved out of her home to further afield.

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— Muqtada al-Sayyid Muhammad al-Sadr (@Mu_AlSadr) July 27, 2022

"Permission jar"

Hours after the storming, the leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, called on his supporters to withdraw from him, saying, "Your message has arrived... that what happened is a revolution of reform and rejection of oppression and corruption. Then, pray two rak'ahs and return to your homes safely."

These developments raised questions from the Iraqi street about Al-Sadr’s steps and his vision regarding the new government, especially as he withdrew from the consultations to form it, and also ordered his (73) deputies to resign from the Council, and whether he had objections to the person of Muhammad Al-Sudani, or the way in which he was nominated .

Here, the leader of the State of Law coalition, Wael Al-Rikabi, says, "peaceful demonstration is a legitimate and constitutional right, but it should not violate the respected legislative institution, in addition to the necessity of the security authorities' commitment to protect that region and not the other way around."

Al-Rikabi: The framework will proceed with the formation of the new government (Al-Jazeera Net)

The frame ignores Al-Sadr's objections

In response to the news about the disruption of government formation consultations, Al-Rikabi confirmed in a statement to Al-Jazeera Net, that "the framework will proceed with the formation of the new government, and as planned, and a special session of Parliament will be held for this next Saturday, because we believe that everyone should wait for the formation of the government, Evaluate its performance for a sufficient period, and then judge it.

Al-Rikabi believes that "the timing of the demonstrations is not correct, as the government has not yet been formed, and it has not failed, and if that happens, it can be demanded for its resignation."

In its interpretation of what happened, the coordinating framework forces accused the Sadrist movement of fomenting chaos and striking civil peace, while Mustafa Al-Kazemi's government demanded intervention.

A statement issued by the Coordinating Framework Forces stated that, "After the Coordination Framework Forces completed the practical steps to start forming a national service government and unanimously agreed to nominate a national figure known for their efficiency and integrity, they monitored suspicious movements and calls that urge chaos, stir up strife and strike civil peace."

The statement pointed out that "what happened today (...) raises suspicions greatly."

A side of the Sadrist movement's protests in the parliament building (Reuters)

The fate of the Sudanese candidacy

The forces of the coordination framework seem indifferent to the Sadrist objections about the personality of the Sudanese and the mechanism of his selection, while the crowds of the Sadrists were wandering in the corridors of Parliament, the forces of the coordination framework were holding a meeting in the Green Zone near Parliament, to discuss the formation of the new government, and it was reported that the meeting was held in the presence of the commander of the Legion Al-Quds in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Ismail Qaani, in what seemed to be messages to Al-Sadr, to proceed in this path, without paying attention to the street.

In the midst of the Sadrist protest, news circulated about the imminent withdrawal of the Sudanese from running for prime minister in response to street pressure, but local media and news agencies, quoting sources close to the latter, that these news are false and that he does not wish to do so, but will resort to dialogue with various political parties.

In response to the coordination’s steps, a member of the Sadrist movement says to Al Jazeera Net that “the framework forces cannot completely ignore al-Sadr and monopolize the formation of the new government, despite the withdrawal from Parliament, the Sadrist masses still remain, and they have a major political role that cannot be denied, so the Taking into account the desire of al-Sadr and his supporters for the upcoming ruling equation, it will benefit everyone, including the forces of the coordinating framework.”

Regarding Sadr’s demands, the member of the current, who refused to reveal his name, said that “Al-Sadr seeks first to nominate an independent personality in the true sense, not a shadow of a well-known party or party, as well as changing the mechanism for selecting members of the government, moving away from partisan and sectarian quotas, and providing competencies to receive Important positions," noting that "this vision is to cross the current stage, and is not a strategy, and it is possible that we will witness other movements, which may impede the path of forming the government, if the vision of the Sadrist movement is ignored."

Hussein: There are several scenarios that Iraq may witness after the storming of Parliament (Al Jazeera Net)

Multiple scenarios

With Al-Sadr’s withdrawal from the consultations to form the government, and the resignation of his deputies, he lost his political tools, and gave way to his opponents from the forces of the coordination framework, to take the initiative and lead the discussions to form the ministerial formation, but in return he resorted to public pressure, to direct the compass of political tracks and achieve his goals, which opens The door is wide open to multiple scenarios, which may prevent the next government from seeing the light.

The expert on Iraqi affairs, Basil Hussein, indicated that "there are several scenarios that Iraq may witness, during the next stage, including the Sudanese withdrawal from the candidacy race, and Al-Kazemi staying for a certain period with elections within one year, or more political crises if the framework insists." Coordinator for his plans without paying attention to Al-Sadr’s objections, or not dispensing with Al-Sudani and trying to search for a middle option by choosing a consensual figure to run a government whose mission is to hold other early elections.”

Regarding the possibility of retracting the coordination framework, Hussein told Al Jazeera Net, that "despite the statement of the coordination framework that included insisting on moving forward with the formation of the government, and adhering to the nomination of Muhammad Al-Sudani, but this statement is normal, to realize the coordination, that his retreat will mean his defeat in his struggle with Al-Sadr." But he will inevitably open the door later to retreat, by leaving the matter dependent on the will of the candidate, Muhammad Shia, and saying that his withdrawal was according to his desire and not at the request of the coordinating framework in order to avoid embarrassment.