[Global Times correspondent in Russia Sui Xin, Global Times correspondent in Germany Aoki] "If Russia cuts off its natural gas supply to Europe" - this assumption seems more and more likely to become a reality.

Russia's Gazprom (Gazprom) announced on the 25th that due to technical reasons, the gas supply of the "Beixi-1" natural gas pipeline will be reduced to half of the current gas supply from the 27th, that is, 20% of the maximum gas supply.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky immediately accused Russia of waging an "open gas war" against Europe and called on Europe to tighten sanctions against Russia.

On the 26th, EU member states held a meeting and decided to "pre-empt" and reach a "political agreement" on reducing the use of Russian natural gas.

It is worth noting that in the previous six rounds of sanctions against Russia issued by the EU, Russian gas has not been touched, because Gazprom is an important source of energy for many EU countries, especially Germany.

The export of natural gas to Europe is considered by many to be Russia's "hands-off" for Europe.

Gas prices in Europe have nearly tripled this year following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and Gazprom's repeated cuts in supply have thwarted the EU's goal of storing enough gas before winter.

"How to spend this winter?" has become a difficult problem faced by many European countries.

 Russia gives reasons for action

  The "Beixi-1" pipeline connects Russia and Germany, and is currently the main gas pipeline from Russia to Europe, with a full-load gas supply of about 160 million cubic meters per day.

Recently, Russia and the West have engaged in multiple rounds of contests over the return of turbines, gas supply and sanctions.

In mid-June, Gazprom reduced the supply of natural gas to Germany via the "Beixi-1" by nearly 60% on the grounds that Germany's Siemens did not return the turbines sent by Gazprom for repair in time, and the daily gas supply did not exceed 67 million cubic meter.

The turbine was sent to Canada for repair.

On July 11, "Beixi-1" suspended gas transmission and carried out annual routine maintenance; gas supply was resumed on the morning of the 21st, but the gas supply was only about 40% of the full capacity.

  Therefore, when Gazprom announced on the 25th that it would reduce its natural gas supply to Europe again, it caused shocks in the international media almost immediately.

Gazprom's statement said that due to the end of the maintenance interval and the technical condition of the turbines, another turbine of the "Beixi-1" pipeline will be forced to stop running, and the pipeline gas supply will be reduced from the current 67 million cubic meters per day to 3300 cubic meters. million cubic meters.

The statement also said that while Canada had agreed to return the Russian turbines via Germany, the Canadian license document did not eliminate the risk of sanctions and would "raise more problems."

Gazprom asked Siemens to provide the necessary documents and instructions to avoid the turbines being "taken away again tomorrow".

  After the Russian side announced the news, the German Ministry of Economic Affairs quickly issued a statement, saying that the Russian side's actions had nothing to do with technology, but to punish Europe.

The New York Times reported that observers believed that Russia’s move was intended to use Russia’s energy exports as a means of punishing and dividing Europe. “Russia is playing a strategic game, manipulating the already low natural gas supply ratio and cutting it off completely. Better because it can manipulate markets and enhance geopolitical influence."

  Reuters said on the 26th that the supply of Russian natural gas to Europe is too low to meet the European Union's storage target before winter.

As a whole, the EU plans to increase gas storage capacity to 80% by Nov. 1 to provide a buffer against peak winter demand.

The data shows that so far, Europe has 66% of its natural gas storage capacity.

"Winter is coming and we don't know how cold it will be"

  On the 26th local time, EU energy ministers held a meeting in Brussels to discuss the European Commission's plan to conserve natural gas.

EU commissioner for energy affairs Simsson said before the meeting that Russia's reduction of natural gas supplies to Europe was "politically motivated" and that "we must be prepared for this. It is a sensible way to preemptively reduce our natural gas demand. Strategy".

  According to a report by German TV on the 26th, the EU countries reached an agreement on the natural gas emergency plan for this winter on the same day.

The Czech Republic, which holds the rotating EU presidency, confirmed this.

The draft resolution adopted at the meeting on the same day stated: EU member states will make every effort to voluntarily reduce the consumption of natural gas for the period from August 1, 2022 to March 31, 2023, by at least 15% compared with the average consumption of natural gas in the same period of the previous five years. %.

"All member states should save gas to help countries that depend on Russian gas, such as Germany." The main purpose of the plan is to reduce the risk of a complete interruption of Russian gas supplies, the report said.

Gigold, State Secretary of the German Federal Ministry of Economics and Climate Protection, was very satisfied with this. He wrote on Twitter: "The vast majority of countries support the EU plan, only Hungary is against it." Hungarian Foreign Minister Scijardo said on the 26th , the EU plan completely ignores the interests of the Hungarian people and is "unenforceable".

  According to media reports, the "political resolution" passed by the EU that day was the result of compromise by all parties, and some member states such as Ireland, Cyprus, Malta, Spain and Portugal were "exceptions" and did not need to abide by the relevant regulations.

Opposition from some countries over the past few days has prompted major concessions from the European Union, CNN said, given countries' varying levels of dependence and storage levels on Russian gas.

Czech Industry and Trade Minister Sikela said at a press conference on the 26th that countries have reached a "satisfactory compromise", "Winter is coming, we don't know how cold it will be", "We have to do this, we will share the pain".

Europe splits into 'two camps'

  The Associated Press said on the 26th that the draft agreement reached by the European Union on the same day is to "coordinated rationing" of natural gas consumption in various countries.

In one sign, energy ministers scrapped a provision in the draft that gave the European Commission the power to turn voluntary action by countries into coercive action.

The new draft ensures that any decisions on coercive measures are in the hands of EU member states themselves.

Countries have the right to declare a gas emergency at their own discretion, not the European Commission.

  Russia's "Moscow Communist Youth League" published an article on the 26th that the sharp reduction in Russia's natural gas supply has divided Europe into two camps.

The article said that the EU's original plan tried to force countries to reduce natural gas consumption, and many European countries, led by Spain and Portugal, have raised objections because these countries are relatively isolated from the EU's natural gas pipeline network.

Spain's Deputy Prime Minister Ribera said last week that her country was being asked to make "disproportionate sacrifices" and that Portugal was "totally opposed" to the proposals.

Greece also opposes the 15% target set by the European Union, saying it places a heavy burden on the Greek economy and consumers.

  As the largest economy in the European Union and the country most dependent on Russian gas, Germany is in a particularly difficult situation.

The German news agency said that this winter, Germany must save more natural gas than other countries to avoid Russia's stoppage of natural gas supply and bring huge problems to the German economy.

Germany's Federal Network Agency director Müller and others have called for savings of around 20 percent.

Only in this way can the worst-case scenario be avoided.