China News Service, July 27. According to Singapore's "Lianhe Zaobao" report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) pointed out on the 26th local time that given the many risks it faces, the road for the United States to avoid a recession is "very narrow".
"It's a very narrow road," said Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist at the International Monetary Fund. "The current environment suggests that the chances of the U.S. economy being able to avoid a recession are actually very slim."
He warned that even a "small shock" could tip the U.S. economy into recession.
In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the IMF lowered its U.S. growth forecast for 2022 to 2.3 percent, a sharp 1.4 percentage point reduction from its April forecast, and projected a further slowdown in 2023, with growth rates only is 1.0%.
While the U.S. labor market is strong right now, with a very low unemployment rate of 3.6 percent, the IMF expects the labor market to cool as monetary policy continues to tighten," Gurinchas said, leading to a rise in unemployment. .
He also said the current forecast is for a slowdown, not a recession, with "signs of a slowdown in the economy."
The report also said the U.S. central bank has been aggressively raising interest rates to curb blistering inflation, which is slowing economic activity.
In addition, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates again at the end of a two-day policy meeting on the 27th, with more decision-making in the coming months.