IMF: the horizon darkens for the world economy
The IMF logo on its headquarters in Washington, United States, in September 2018. © REUTERS - Yuri Gripas
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2 mins
It's not winter yet, but it's not spring anymore.
For the global economy, the landscape is darkening according to the IMF, which notes that the risks it anticipated last April have begun to materialize.
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The world has not yet recovered from the Covid-19 pandemic and is now facing multiple shocks.
War in Ukraine,
generalized inflation,
sharp rise in interest rates... All of this is weighing on growth.
That of the United States, the world's leading economic power, is lowered by 1.4 points for 2022, and should stand at 2.3%.
That of China fell by 1.1% to reach 3.3%
, its worst result in four decades.
Europe is doing a little better, but the gas crisis could affect the old continent more this winter.
On the other hand, sub-Saharan Africa is holding its own.
The forecasts are unchanged.
Africa is doing well
As a producer of oil and gas, Africa is benefiting from soaring world prices.
Disparities between African countries are widening as the global economic outlook darkens.
Those who are doing the best are commodity producers like Nigeria, which will see its growth stay above 3.2% this year and next, or South Africa, which will even see its situation improve.
For oil-producing countries,
the 50% increase in the price of oil
this year will thus support incomes and therefore offset the global outlook.
“
For oil-importing countries, the situation is more difficult: there is a reduction in growth this year
,” explains Daniel Leigh, head of the IMF's research department.
Africa is also a victim of the global rise in interest rates.
Two-thirds of central banks around the world have already raised their rates this year to fight inflation.
And who says "
high interest rates
" says " over-
indebtedness
", continues Daniel Leigh: "
With rising interest rates, the debt could become more difficult to sustain in many cases, with a high risk of over-indebtedness in 70% low-income countries in Africa.
»
The other threat to the purchasing power of African households is inflation.
The IMF recommends that countries maintain a supportive fiscal policy to avoid social shocks.
.@pogourinchas, Chief Economist, IMF: Simultaneous monetary tightening in several countries is unprecedented, and its effects should be felt: slower growth next year and decelerating inflation.
https://t.co/MdzrUSj1YK
– FMIactualites (@FMIactualites) July 26, 2022
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