"WikiLeaks Al-Maliki" increases Baghdad's crises
“Leaks” impede efforts to form the Iraqi government
Al-Maliki's comments (right) may cost him his political future, and Al-Sadr criticized him.
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Nine months have passed since the elections and no Iraqi government is in sight.
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Over the past few days, Iraq has witnessed two very important developments, namely the emergence of several leaks of the former Iraqi prime minister and leader of the State of Law coalition, Nuri al-Maliki, on July 13 and 16, in which he attacked several parties, starting with the leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, all the way to the Popular Mobilization Forces and the Iraqi political forces, in addition to demonstrations by supporters of the Sadrist movement on July 15.
Read the leaks:
The dimensions of the leaks attributed to the owners, and the most prominent positions issued regarding them, can be clarified as follows:
1- An Iraqi journalist exposed the leaks:
Journalist Ali Fadel, who is the head of the American-Iraqi Anti-Corruption Organization, published the leaks attributed to Al-Maliki.
It is noted that Fadel is a political activist who is not affiliated with the Shiite political forces, and resides in the United States.
Fadel also announced that he has many recordings that he will publish in the coming days.
These leaks raise many questions about how they recorded a meeting that took place between Nuri al-Maliki and some of those close to him, within the coordination framework, for a full hour, and whether the recording was made through a listening device that was placed at the meeting place, by the Iraqi intelligence services, or any other security agency. Or, was it recorded through the phone of one of the attendees, and then sent to Fadel.
2- A sectarian attack against the “Shia opponents”:
It is noted that the rhetoric followed by al-Maliki was sectarian, as he attacked all his political opponents based on sectarian premises, and considered Muqtada al-Sadr a "murderer" and "ignorant", and that he was leading a British project to end Shi'ism in Iraq.
Al-Maliki also launched an attack on the majority of Sunni leaders in the leaks, describing them as haters of him and the Iraqi state and its institutions.
He also accused the head of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, Massoud Barzani, of having sought to strike the Shiites, by embracing the displaced from the Sunnis, as well as their leaders, stressing that Barzani, through this, sought to establish a sectarian leadership for the Sunnis of Iraq, with the inclusion of Muqtada al-Sadr in that axis as the sole representative of the Shiites.
In continuation of these sectarian positions, al-Maliki called for preventing the existence of any alliance between the Sadrist movement with the Sunni and Kurdish forces, where he indicated, “If we can bring down the orientations of Muqtada, al-Halbousi, and Barzani, if we drop their project, Iraq will succeed, and if we cannot, then the country is moving towards the red circle, and you. You must prepare.”
Al-Maliki was not satisfied with attacking his sectarian opponents, but the leaks revealed his efforts to arm about 15 groups, to be ready for the next stage, if necessary to intervene, in an indication of his preparation for armed confrontations against the supporters of the Sadrist movement, in addition to his attacking the Popular Mobilization factions, accusing them of cowardice, which is what It may be related to their refusal to advocate for him.
Al-Maliki also confirmed in these leaks that he wanted to “make the Popular Mobilization Forces similar to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard,” in an apparent attempt to placate Iran.
3- Al-Sadr’s criticism of the owners:
Al-Sadr launched an attack on Al-Maliki, as he demanded to denounce what was contained in these leaks, whether by the leaders of the blocs allied with him within the coordination framework, or from his clan. Al-Sadr advised Al-Maliki to quit political work.
It seems that al-Sadr aims from that attack to prove the authenticity of al-Maliki's recordings, which will enable al-Sadr to exclude one of his opponents from assuming the presidency of Iraq.
4- The leaks coincided with the Sadr demonstrations:
The first audio leak of Nuri al-Maliki came two days before the unified Friday prayer called by the Sadrist movement on July 15, which witnessed the participation of tens of thousands of Sadr's supporters, and coincided with the twenty-fourth anniversary of the first Friday prayer held by his father, Ayatollah Muhammad Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadr.
During which, al-Sadr set several conditions for agreeing to form any new government, including the obligation to remove the remainder of the foreign forces, hold the corrupt accountable, confine weapons to the state, disband the armed factions, reorganize the Popular Mobilization, and warn against re-forming the government, by people who have previously been tried. , referring to al-Maliki.
It is noted that these demonstrations aimed to either abort the formation of the Iraqi government, by imposing demands that seem, in some aspects, impossible, or through which he sought to emphasize his continuation as an influential party in the political process from behind the scenes.
Al-Maliki's fortunes declined:
A number of repercussions of al-Maliki's leaks can be reviewed, as follows:
1- Weakening Al-Maliki’s chances:
It seems that the aim of these leaks is to weaken Nuri al-Maliki’s chances of running for prime minister, especially as he attacked the leaders of the Popular Mobilization, along with Muqtada al-Sadr, in addition to speculation that the upcoming leaks will affect the clerics in Najaf, which will represent an opponent of al-Maliki’s popularity in the street. It will also strengthen the other candidates for prime minister within the coordination framework, which numbered about 10 candidates.
2- The widening chasm of Shiite differences:
It is noted that al-Maliki's criticism of some leaders in the Popular Mobilization has widened the areas of dispute between him and the Popular Mobilization militias, as well as between him and other forces affiliated with the coordination.
Some of the headquarters of the Dawa Party, in which al-Maliki holds the position of Secretary-General, were subjected to armed attacks in Basra, Karbala and Najaf, and some photos and videos that were published showed the closure of the headquarters of the Dawa Party in Zafaraniyah, south of Baghdad, with the phrase “closed in the name of the crowd.”
3- Possible decline in Iranian support:
Iran, the main supporter of the coordination, realizes the importance of the next prime minister being accepted internationally and internally, especially by the Sadrist movement, so that the street is not mobilized against him, especially after Sadr's recent demonstrations.
On the other hand, it is difficult to promote Maliki as an externally acceptable figure who has a sectarian agenda aimed at excluding Sunnis and Kurds.
4- The persistence of Kurdish differences:
The Kurdish dispute still exists over the presidency, with the failure of several mediations, the last of which was Iranian, and the attempt of the commander of the Quds Force in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Ismail Qaani, to reconcile the two main Kurdish parties to reach a compromise candidate for the position, a number of factors that may worsen the crisis current scene.
5- Possible judicial escalation against Al-Maliki:
These leaks open the way for some political forces, especially civil forces, to resort to the judiciary and the public prosecution to open an extensive investigation into their threats to security and incitement to fighting, which will negatively affect the political future of al-Maliki.
Ongoing crisis
Recent events reveal the continued deterioration of the Iraqi political scene, and the failure to form a new government despite the passage of nine months since the elections. However, the recent leaks may push al-Maliki to bypass the premiership, and search for another candidate who is acceptable internally, especially from the Sadrist movement, as well as regionally. Internationally, especially with the realization of the various political currents and wings, that Nouri al-Maliki represents a burden in light of his recent leaks.
Al-Maliki’s criticism of some leaders in the “Popular Mobilization” has widened the areas of dispute between him and the Popular Mobilization militias, as well as between him and other forces affiliated with the coordination framework.
The discourse that al-Maliki followed was sectarian, as he attacked all his political opponents based on sectarian premises, and considered Muqtada al-Sadr a "murderer" and "ignorant", and that he was leading a British project to end Shiism in Iraq.
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