Al Jazeera Net interviews two British military experts about the possibility of the war in Ukraine entering a new phase

LONDON

- Russia's move of its largest nuclear submarine - called "Dmitriy Donskoy" - in combat military exercises at sea has raised a lot of speculation about the message that Moscow wants to convey to the West after removing its most dangerous nuclear weapons.

The global apprehension was heightened by the statements of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who said that "his country's military objectives are no longer focused only on eastern Ukraine, but also include a series of other territories," adding that Russian military operations would expand further if the West provided long-range weapons to Kiev. .

These clear messages from Moscow were responded to by the West, by providing more military support to the Ukrainian army, especially the United States and Britain, which announced a new package of military aid in the form of missiles, tanks and air defense systems.

This raises the question of the possibility of the war in Ukraine entering a new phase in which operations are expanding, and direct confrontation between Europe and Russia is approaching.

Al Jazeera Net interviewed two British military experts about the fate of this war, and is the world facing a long-term war?

Will it extend to other regions and come closer to the borders of the European Union?

long-range goal

Shashank Joshi - editor of defense and military affairs for the British magazine "The Economist" - describes the Russian threats to expand its military operations as "unrealistic", and according to Joshi, the reason lies in "the losses incurred by the Russian army", in addition to that "Moscow is currently finding it difficult To make up for all its human losses in this war.

And the British military expert believes - in his statement to Al-Jazeera Net - that "it is impossible for Russia to change its military plans and go further from the east, and it is impossible for it to have any ambition to go further in light of the current conditions and the ongoing battles in the east." By losing the lands it controlled in the east if it decided to open any new front.”

Shashank Joshi reads the statements of the Russian Foreign Minister as "expressing a long-term Russian vision, because Russia's strategic military goal in Ukraine is a very big goal, and this means overthrowing the Kyiv government and controlling the whole country," although the Russian army is unable to do so now. "Moscow will rebuild its army and carry out other operations that may last for years."

long war

The military expert added, "What Russia calls a military operation may turn into a long-term war, and there is a high probability that the matter will extend into the next year, and with Moscow's attempt to control the entire Donbass, it will progress very slowly and will be very costly, especially as Ukraine is preparing for counter-military operations in the East".

Pointing out that "both sides suffer great losses, and they have weaknesses, and both see that they are still able to win this battle, and neither of them wants to stop fighting. President Putin will not feel safe unless he controls all of Donbass, and Ukraine will not stop operations." She fears that Russian operations will extend farther east."

As for the date of the start of the Ukrainian army's counter-military operations, the military editor of the Economist magazine expects them to start "as soon as the new weapons from the West arrive in Kyiv, as well as the completion of the Ukrainian army's training on these equipment."

Joshi expects that "the upcoming battles will be fierce and very violent battles, and victory in them will not only be related to the equipment and the quality of weapons, but to each side's ability to withstand and enjoy a long breath."

nuclear dialogue

Regarding moving Russia's largest nuclear submarine, Joshi believes that "this is a normal procedure, and it has nothing to do with the war in Ukraine. The Russian nuclear program has been developing for years and Moscow has been investing huge budgets to manufacture advanced nuclear weapons, including intercontinental nuclear missiles."

He added that "Russia - since the first days of the war - has been trying to display its nuclear arsenal, to keep the West away from direct interference."

On the other hand, George Allison, editor of "UK Defense" magazine, sees in his interview with Al Jazeera Net that "Russia's removal of its largest nuclear ships is an attempt to show strength."

The British military expert referred to the incident of a British warship tracking two Russian nuclear submarines in the North Sea on July 22.

He added that Russia's move of its most dangerous nuclear submarines "is a message to the West, that Russia is still strong, at least in terms of nuclear submarines."

Direct confrontation?

On the possibility of direct confrontation between the West and Russia, the military expert, Allison, believes that “Russia is currently unable and does not seek any direct confrontation with the West, and its operations in eastern Russia show the cost of any military action,” adding that “the place where Russia prefers direct confrontation with The West is electronic warfare.

On the other hand, Joshi believes that "the West also does not want any direct confrontation with Russia, and for this we see that the United States is cautious in the weapons it provides to Ukraine, as Washington has so far refused to deliver the Ukrainian army with long-range missiles."