Introduction to translation

The Corona virus returns to the forefront of events again with a new mutant called “BA.5”, a mutant of the Omicron strain that is sweeping the United States and the rest of the world. What are the most important characteristics of the new mutant?

translation text

Once again, we are experiencing a new wave of the Corona virus, in whose presence we appear to be extremely weak and fragile beings, and which bares its fangs again, this time taking a new mask in the form of a mutant called “BA.5” that is currently spreading in the United States and all over the world, and it is considered “BA. 5" is a new mutant of the Omicron strain that swept the world last winter and caused many disasters.

Doctors attribute the speed with which the new mutation spreads to its ability to bypass some of the immune defenses acquired by people who have received vaccines, or those who have previously been infected with previous mutations.

Unfortunately, those who managed to avoid the virus for nearly three years will find it difficult this time to evade the grip of this new mutant. The new mutator again.

So, in order to calm things down a bit, Stephen Goldstein, a virologist at the University of Utah, USA, went out, saying: “People should not be surprised if they become infected again, or if this wave is no less troublesome than the previous ones.”

However, what we are experiencing these days does not mean - fortunately - that we are in the midst of a wave similar to the one we saw last winter, or that the new Omicron mutant "BA.5" (and the one closest to it from the same strain BA.4) can They return our immune system to zero, and this is reassuring and comforting from Goldstein's point of view, because based on how successful other countries are in addressing the new BA.5 mutant, it is most likely that vaccines still play an important role in keeping many people away. For hospitals, intensive care units, and morgues.

Despite the apparent contradiction between receiving vaccines and the continued emergence of new mutant, the new mutant is not considered a catastrophic danger, and it cannot cause a terrible wave, yet it can never be ignored, as infection (and recurrence of infection) is still a real problem that the new mutant exploits. "BA.5" to impart a continuous and heavy burden on the shoulders of mankind.

In the same context, Maria Van Kerkhove, an epidemiologist and infectious disease specialist at the World Health Organization, says: “Our main goal is not to completely prevent transmission, because that is out of our control, but rather to reduce the spread of infection, as our battle with the virus is not over. Corona is after, and allowing this virus to spread at such a frightening and fierce rate is like playing with fire.”

A short history of Omicron

Omicron began to announce itself for the first time last November, when this new version of Corona swept the United States and the entire world, and toppled its predecessor, "Delta".

That initial version of Omicron, now known as "BA.1", was just the first version of a miniature line of related mutant that established itself on the scene, and has since continued to compete with each other due to the hegemonic fever that gripped them, or more precisely, the struggle between them to take over Raya.

The days reveal to us, in turn, that the new mutant of Omicron "BA.5" now represents in the United States about 54% of all Corona injuries, while the mutant "BA.4" represents approximately 17% of infections.

It is true that each wave takes a while to disappear from sight, but every time the air remains smelling of danger, and indeed the mutant "BA.2" took over the flag after "BA.1", and this resulted in a sudden increase in the number of injuries last spring. However, these mutations emit an irresistible current of determination, and the closest example of this is what we are experiencing now with the "BA.4" and "BA.5" mutations, which were first discovered by doctors in South Africa in January and February from this year, and since then these two mutations have replaced "BA.2" worldwide;

This caused a sharp rise in the number of injuries and hospitalizations.

The days reveal to us, in turn, that the new omicron mutant “BA.5” now represents in the United States about 54% of all Corona injuries, while the “BA.4” mutant represents approximately 17% of infections (so our focus will be more in this report on The last mutant of the Omicron strain is "BA.5", because it has proven during the last period that it is superior to its relative of the same strain, which is "BA.4").

Hospitals have recorded the highest cases of the new mutation since last March.

You might assume that a new variant gains dominance because of its nature that makes it more transmissible than its ancestors. Based on some rough calculations, this might seem a bit logical, so some have claimed that BA.5 is as transmissible as measles;

What qualifies him to be crowned one of the most infectious viral diseases in history, but Trevor Bedford, a virologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, Washington, had a completely different opinion.

Why does it escape the immune system?

Bedford believes that all these assumptions and approximate calculations are "completely wrong", because mutants can spread quickly without even having a better ability to find new hosts as long as they are better at overcoming the immune defenses of these hosts, most likely enabling the "evasion of the immune system" The BA.1 mutant was removed from Delta last winter, and this may also explain why the BA.5 mutant is now more prevalent.

When people receive the vaccine or become infected, they develop antibodies that counteract the viral infection and prevent the virus from multiplying inside the body by sticking to its barbed proteins, the bumps on its surface that the pathogen (the virus) uses to identify and infect our cells.

But what distinguishes the "BA.4" and "BA.5" mutant is that they have many mutations that change the shape of the bumps, so viruses become like swords that are no longer suitable for sheathing, and as a result, the efforts of the antibodies fail to reach their desired goals in identifying the new mutant. As a result of the sudden profound change that occurred to her.

For this reason, several studies have shown that receiving three doses of the vaccine or having a previous infection will not prevent infection with the new mutant, and this is because antibodies are now less effective against the new BA.4 or BA.5 mutant by about three to four In other words, most citizens are now less protected from infection than they did two months ago, and this explains why some people are infected with the Corona virus again these days, despite their recent infection.

Commenting on this, Ann Han, a virologist and immunologist at Yale University in America, says: “I heard that a lot of people who were recently infected with corona in February, March or April, have been infected again now.”

Journalist Catherine J. Woo said in a report in The Atlantic that the consequences of being repeatedly infected are still unclear.

But what is reassuring is that it is not likely that the consequences of each new wave of the Corona virus will be worse on the individual than the previous one, so one of the news articles interested in viruses tells us that there is no need to worry too much about these new mutations, because it is very likely that one will be infected again. One of the omicron mutant every two to three weeks.

It is true that the new mutant of Omicron "BA.5" is different from its predecessors, but in the end it is not the same, so it is normal for someone to be infected with the new mutant despite having recently contracted corona, but it is highly unlikely that he will be infected again in the near future.

Are we going back to zero?

Although the immune systems are somewhat less efficient in the face of the cunningness of the new mutant, fortunately our immunity is not back to zero.

In the same context, Megan Cale, an epidemiologist at the UK Health Security Agency, says: “The current data indicates that most of the new infections are people who have not been infected with corona before,” in addition to that half of those infected in England in the current wave are individuals. They have never had a direct battle with the Corona virus, and this is their first time with it.

It is true that all this reveals that the recurrence of infection with corona is a difficult problem, but the bright side of the story is the possibility of controlling this problem based on the evidence that indicates that most of the world’s population has overcome being easy prey for the new mutant, and most of them now enjoy some protection from Infection even with the new mutator "BA.5".

The ability of the new mutant to evade our immune systems is similar to the same scenario that Omicron had previously adopted when it first emerged last winter, at which time the efficiency of antibodies in people who received vaccines decreased by 20 to 40 times compared to its efficiency When countering the original virus.

From here we can conclude that the same scenario is repeated these days with the new mutant “BA.5”, which was able to reduce the efficiency of antibodies by three times, which is a small victory for the new mutant, as well as adopting the same dramatic touches and plot that its predecessors had previously adopted during Evading the antibodies, and about this, "Cal" says: "We see that the new mutant follows the example of Omicron, but with a higher ability and more subtlety in evading the immune system, and yet I do not think that this new wave represents a drastic change or a huge paradigm shift that can evade the immune system." Disturbing."

So, the most important question here remains: Why do we feel with this new wave that the situation is no longer the same as it was seven months ago, according to unofficial reports or anecdotal reports of some patients?!

The answer is that, since its appearance, Omicron has completely changed the baseline that doctors have adopted for tracking the Corona virus.

Before his arrival, for example, a third of Americans had contracted the coronavirus, and by the end of February, about 60% of them had already been infected.

The reason for this current wave is partly because the number of people who are likely to be infected again has doubled.

The real paradox this time around is that the effect of the new BA.5 will differ radically from one country to another.

Commenting on this, "Cal" says: "Despite the rapid pace with which the new mutation is spreading in South Africa and the United Kingdom, very few patients resort to hospitals, in addition to the fact that hospitals have recorded only a small number of deaths; It indicates that the effort that scientists have spent in order to produce vaccines has not been in vain, and the closest example of this is that the protection provided by vaccines against dangerous diseases such as viruses is still strong and effective.”

Unfortunately, Portugal, on the other hand, was not so lucky with this new wave, as the number of deaths rose to levels approaching those that occurred with the emergence of the first version of Omicron.

Therefore, these differences between countries must be taken into account.

In addition to demographic differences, most countries now have a complex mixture of the immune systems of their citizens as a result of their differences in the number of times they have been infected, the number of times they have received the vaccines, the types of vaccines they have received, and the many mutations they have encountered.

massive spread

However, it is now easy to predict what might happen when the threat posed by the BA.5 mutation escalates, by tracking a number that scientists call the "reproduction number" or "viral reproduction" and is symbolized by "Rt". refers to the average number of people who can be infected by a sick person (and is a method of assessing the disease's ability to spread).

In the same context, virologist Trevor Bedford says: “The first version of Omicron (BA.1) announced itself with real fierceness when its reproduction number in its early stages ranged between 3 to 3.5 (this means that one person can, on average, Infect at least 3. If the reproduction number is higher than 1, the number of cases will increase significantly, but if the number is less than 1, the rate at which the virus spreads will slow down because not enough new people are infected, the virus loses its chance to continue spreading).

Bedford estimates that Omicron infected nearly half the country in just a few months, and at its peak the number of infections reached roughly 3 to 4 million people a day.

These numbers are higher than the official numbers, which have always shown less than the truth. However, the second version of the Omicron "BA.2" mutant was less ferocious, and the reproduction number in its early stages was 1.6, as this mutant affects one in 10 individuals, When it peaked in the United States, for example, infections reached 500,000 daily.

The third wave of omicron is now seen in the United States and the world as a whole, and the new version "BA.5" is expected to infect between 10% and 15% of Americans over the next few months.

The Biden administration, other political leaders and many media figures have promoted permissive policies on the Corona virus, arguing that vaccines still reduce the risk of death and hospitalization, but these decisions were never successful, and involved some foolishness, for several reasons, including that if they decreased If we allow the virus to spread unchecked, the price we will pay for this will be dire and unpleasant surprises may certainly emerge.

won't stop

Along the same lines, Bedford believes that such a scenario would allow the Corona virus to spread and kill at least 100,000 Americans every year, and this is a very huge number!

It is true that the matter with the new mutations is no longer the same as before and we no longer suffer as we were at the height of the pandemic two years ago, but this does not negate the fact that the new mutations represent a huge health burden on humanity.

And what is most regrettable is that the most miserable under the weight of this burden are the elderly, the working class and the immunocompromised.

The entire Omicron strain may have arisen from the chronic infection of immunocompromised patients, who are more likely to have the virus invade their bodies as a breeding ground for it to evolve more rapidly and mutate into a new copy;

This indicates the need for immune patients to adhere to precautionary measures because they are the first target of the virus, so their keenness to prevent infection among them will benefit them above all, in addition to the moral sense of course that requires everyone to adhere to the procedures and try as much as possible to reduce the spread of infection.

We shouldn't be too concerned about our low death toll and forget that even without sending people to hospitals, infection can lead to persistent symptoms of corona over long periods, a risk that vaccines seem to mitigate, but it still does. unable to completely avoid it or overcome it, so “Bedford” says: “The deaths caused by the Corona virus do not worry me as much as the possibility that the virus will remain with us for long periods of time. But at least I'm trying to take measures to mitigate infection, because even a mild infection can still be a terrible problem."

In the same context, Dr. Dan Baruch, an infectious disease specialist at Harvard Medical School, says that many of his friends and colleagues fell victim to the new mutant, and stayed in their homes for a period that sometimes reached weeks, but the disease did not become severe for them to the point where they went to the unit. Intensive care and getting tubes to breathe.

The huge numbers of sick employees who requested leave have negatively affected the sectors in which they work.

In the midst of all this, we will not forget, of course, the medical sector and the problem that health care workers faced when facing this new wave, as the departure of many experienced employees currently from service due to their retirement or infection with the Corona virus has caused a real crisis, not to mention a phenomenon Job burnout is the psychological and physical stress experienced by all workers in this field.

Unfortunately, this crisis continues even when the number of hospital admissions is low, and worsens as the numbers rise.

Attempts to reduce the spread of infection are still very important, and vaccines are the most effective and critical way to achieve this.

Finally, after a long wait, officials are nearing completion of the production of vaccines for omicron mutant, and the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has recommended that these vaccines be equipped to counter the last two omicron mutant, which are "BA.4" and "BA.5". What the world may face today revolves around the fact that these vaccines will not be ready until next October, and this is a sufficient period that may allow the emergence of new mutations.

In the same context, evolutionary virologist Stephen Goldstein says: “Even if the new vaccines are not entirely successful in addressing Omicron, they must at least enhance the repertoire of citizens’ antibodies, making them better immune, not only from the strain of Omicron. Omicron, but from other mutant that may appear in the future as well."

However, Baruch says, "It would be better if we did not exaggerate too much in the promises that might indicate the effectiveness of Omicron's vaccines."

Clinical data indicates that these vaccines will be at least better than the current ones, but that does not mean that they will be fundamentally different from their predecessors, so it is important not to place high hopes on them.

Assuming we already have the long-awaited vaccines that can protect against all viruses, trying to persuade Americans and all citizens around the world to receive them is no easy task (especially if most of them have already been vaccinated).

It is true that Corona vaccines play a very important role in responding to the epidemic, but they cannot nevertheless complete such a task alone, so it is necessary to adhere again to precautionary measures, such as wearing face masks, good ventilation, quick checks, and of course social support represented by vacation. Paid sickness.

With funding disrupted for coronavirus tests, treatments, and vaccines, the world will continue to be ill-prepared for new mutations.

Is every mutant really less dangerous?

Take, for example, the omicron sub-mutant known as BA.2.75, which first appeared in India and has several surprising mutations that we have not seen in its predecessors and peers. “It appears to be spreading,” Bedford says of this mutant. At twice the rate of prevalence of the last omicron mutant (BA.5), its spread is similar to the sweeping rate previously adopted by the original mutant (BA.1).

There is a possibility that this mutation will struggle to spread in other countries such as the United States, which is now dominated by the mutation (BA.5).

But regardless of what is happening now, this round of mutants is not the first round we are dealing with, and it won't be the last anyway."

Most people's belief that viruses inevitably evolve into less virulent and milder versions is no more than a myth.

Sometimes these beliefs are somewhat logical, but they cannot be relied upon or taken for granted in any way, because the virus can simply evolve to become more virulent, although vaccines can still mitigate its impact.

Commenting on this, Ann Han, a virologist and immunologist at Yale University in the United States, says: “The new mutant is indeed capable of spreading very quickly, but at the same time it will not find much to gain,” and this somehow eases our anxiety, and relieves our exhausted desire to make sure We are out of danger.

Attempting to evade or evade a virus from our immune systems is like an ongoing evolutionary arms race between mutants and our immune systems.

This process happens as follows: the new mutant decides to circumvent our immune systems until he succeeds in that and actually penetrates them. Vaccines gradually rebuild our defenses again, until a new mutant appears that tries to evade our immune systems again to do the same again, and so on.

This is exactly what happens with influenza, but the coronavirus mutates more quickly.

What may worry us now is whether we are not sure whether the next mutant will be less immunizing (as BA.5 currently does), or whether we will be surprised with unexpected and undesirable consequences (as the first version of Omicron did).

This is exactly what “coexistence with the Corona virus” means, as if we are living in the midst of a continuous game between a cat and a mouse, either we play it with honor and seriousness, or we lose it constantly as a result of underestimating most of the precautionary measures.

Ultimately, we have to realize that the stakes of this game depend on a very simple question: "Should we keep trying to limit the spread of infection?", if the answer is that we "don't need to" - a decision that It has been adopted by most leaders and officials around the world - this means that the new "BA.5" mutation will appear to be not a major problem, but if the answer urges the need to "keep trying to prevent infection" - an answer adopted by most experts - then this means that the current wave It represents a real problem, and it is necessary to pay attention to it and adhere as much as possible to precautionary measures to prevent the spread of infection.

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Translation: Somaya Zaher

This report has been translated from The Atlantic and does not necessarily reflect the website of Meydan.