“Wants an escalation of the conflict”: how the West intends to increase the supply of weapons to Ukraine

The EU has decided to allocate a new package of military assistance for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell. 

“The EU countries agreed to mobilize the fifth tranche of military assistance in the amount of €500 million to further support the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The EU, together with its partners, remains focused and unwavering in its efforts to support Ukraine,” Borrell wrote on Twitter after a ministerial meeting through the contact group on Ukraine, in which the United States also participated.

Earlier, Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin (also after this event) announced that Washington intends to send four more HIMARS MLRS to Kyiv, as well as ammunition for them.

The head of the Pentagon said that the next delivery from the stocks of the US Department of Defense "will include four more advanced MLRS HIMARS, and the total number (such units allocated to Ukraine.

) will increase to 16."

He added that "the new aid package will also include additional GMLRS (missiles for HIMARS)" and "additional artillery ammunition packages."

As Austin emphasized, the United States "will continue to make an active effort and lead" other states.

According to him, while some countries are training the Ukrainian military, others are repairing equipment for Kyiv or supplying spare parts.

“Countries, including the Czech Republic, Poland and the UK, are working with their domestic industrial bases to find ways to help Ukraine even faster, while other countries, such as our Baltic and Australian allies, continue to generously supply products from their own stocks,” the minister noted.

Austin also specifically thanked Poland for its role as a “link” in providing security assistance to Kyiv, as well as for providing it with military equipment for more than $1.7 billion. He thanked the head of the Pentagon and Norway for their active cooperation on providing Ukraine with NASAMS air defense systems.

The head of the US Department of Defense is confident that such efforts "will continue to grow."

“We will firmly stand our ground together with other members of the contact group.

And we are going to provide long-term assistance to the self-defense of Ukraine,” Austin said.

• Pentagon

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• © Digital Vision

According to the Pentagon press service, Washington's military support for Kyiv also includes more than 1,400 Stinger anti-aircraft systems, more than 6,500 Javelin anti-aircraft systems and more than 700 Switchblade drones.

In addition, the United States provided Ukraine with 126 155mm howitzers, shells for them, and a dozen highly mobile artillery rocket systems with ammunition.

US Air Force Chief of Staff General Charles Brown did not rule out that the West could soon supply Ukraine with fighter jets.

He suggested that it could be either American aircraft or Gripen from Sweden or Eurofighter or Rafale.

In turn, the British Ministry of Defense announced that London intends to send Kyiv a new batch of weapons, including dozens of artillery pieces, 1.6 thousand anti-tank weapons, as well as 50 thousand artillery shells.

"More and More Risky"

At the same time, Moscow noted that the West is not just pumping weapons into Ukraine, but is forcing the Armed Forces of Ukraine to “use it more and more risky.”

“Our American colleagues, British colleagues (in general, such an Anglo-Saxon thing with the active support of the Germans, Poles and Balts), really want to make this war a real war and push Russia against European countries.

It is beneficial for the Americans, it is beneficial for the British, because they are sitting there - across the straits, across the oceans.

They are far away.

And the European economy is suffering first of all,” said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on July 20 in an interview with Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief of the RT television channel and the Rossiya Segodnya media group.

According to him, as the West increases its arms supplies to Ukraine, including more and more long-range weapons, such as HIMARS, the geographical objectives of the special operation "will move even further from the current line."

“We cannot allow the part of Ukraine that Zelensky will control or whoever replaces him to have weapons that will pose a direct threat to our territory.

And the territories of those republics that have declared their independence, and those that want to determine their future on their own, ”the Russian minister emphasized.

However, as Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said at a press briefing on July 21, commenting on the allocation of a new tranche by Brussels for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, despite Western assistance, the situation of Ukrainian armed formations in the combat zone is "deteriorating every day."

“Arms, ammunition and so on (will be.

) migrate to you, to your own countries (Western countries.

) through black markets,” the diplomat warned.

"Until the last Ukrainian"

According to experts, the plans of the European Union and the United States to increase arms supplies to Kyiv only confirm the fact that the West expects to prolong the hostilities.

“Washington wants the conflict to escalate, prompting Brussels to increase military aid.

Despite many internal problems, Western states still intend to wage a proxy war against Russia, provoking military clashes “to the last Ukrainian,” said Vladimir Shapovalov, deputy director of the Institute of History and Politics of Moscow State Pedagogical University, in an interview with RT.

At the same time, he admitted that further pumping of Ukraine with weapons would lead to an increase in the number of civilian casualties, but noted that this would not significantly affect the course of the special operation.

• MLRS HIMARS

• Legion Media

• © Mariusz Burcz

“Ukrainian servicemen are not able to effectively use such weapons.

They do not have enough competencies, especially considering that now the Armed Forces of Ukraine are mostly recruits or fighters of the defense, who do not know very well how to use even Soviet equipment, let alone Western.

The same trainings that are conducted by foreign instructors in a very abbreviated format are done rather for show, ”Shapovalov explained.

He also named several more reasons why Western arms supplies are not able to significantly affect the course of the special operation in Ukraine, among them the specifics of military support for Kyiv.

“The West supplies various types of weapons, among which there is often a lack of coordination on the battlefield, which makes their use very difficult.

In addition, far from all Western equipment is used by the Armed Forces of Ukraine - due to corruption, some goes to black markets, and a significant proportion of such supplies are destroyed by the Russian Armed Forces, inflicting pinpoint strikes on the locations of weapons.

In particular, several HIMARS installations, as well as American howitzers, were liquidated, ”Shapovalov stated.

However, despite the low effectiveness of its actions to increase arms supplies to Kyiv, Washington is ready to go further, the analyst believes.

“The Joe Biden administration needs this to shift public attention from internal problems to efforts to pump weapons to Ukraine and pass them off as their success, to use this in the election race before the midterm congressional elections.

But such a strategy is doomed to failure, because, despite all the efforts of the current US president, his ratings continue to hit anti-records, ”the analyst believes.

At the same time, he did not rule out that Western countries might try to supply fighter jets to Kyiv, but the expert considers the effectiveness of such a step doubtful.  

“Arms deliveries may well spread to aviation.

However, this will not help the APU.

If the West wants to get rid of its planes, then, of course, it can send them to Ukraine, but there they will be quickly destroyed by the Russian military, ”Shapovalov is sure.

A similar position is shared by military expert Yuri Knutov.

He believes that even if Western countries decide to supply fighter jets to Kyiv, their parties will be quite small.

“Since the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not have the skills to conduct combat operations on such vehicles, their possible deliveries will not have a serious impact on the special operation.

Russian pilots are better trained and armed, so NATO aircraft can be dealt with quickly and effectively.

Moreover, the powerful air defense systems of the Russian Federation are able to cover the Russian Armed Forces, its fighter aircraft in the air, and at the same time neutralize enemy aircraft, ”Knutov said in an interview with RT.

Knutov also believes that one of the main difficulties that the Armed Forces of Ukraine face when using Western equipment is the lack of coordination between weapons.

“As a result, even a small malfunction leads to the fact that this weapon fails, and it is quite difficult to find spare parts for it.

And these difficulties will only get worse, creating big problems for the Kyiv regime and the Ukrainian army,” the expert said.

• Western weapons in Ukraine

• AP

• © Evgeniy Maloletka

As Knutov noted, despite the fact that the countries - donors of military aid to Kyiv intend to increase its support, their stockpiles of weapons are declining rather quickly.

“The United States provides its military-industrial complex with orders.

If we talk about European countries, then there is already fatigue from the Ukrainian theme, but Brussels, urged on by Washington, is still taking new initiatives, including the next tranche of military assistance to Kyiv.

This will sooner or later turn into unrest in the EU.

At the same time, if the Democrats in the United States lose their majority in Congress, then many decisions of the Biden administration on the supply of weapons to Kyiv may be blocked, ”the analyst predicted.