Resignation, dissolution, early elections… In one week, Italy has plunged back into political instability while it is going through an economic, social and energy crisis.
The Italian president had nevertheless "done everything" to avoid it, reports the historian and specialist in Italian political life at Sciences Po, Marc Lazar.
"This dissolution is a failure for Draghi but also for Mattarella, he recalls. They formed a tandem!".
A snub, therefore, initiated by the populist party M5S.
Italy is a parliamentary republic: the choice of the head of government depends on the majority in parliament and not on the president.
By refusing to participate in the vote of confidence requested by Mario Draghi, Wednesday July 20, Forza Italia, the M5S and the League have shattered the fragile government coalition which has ruled Italy since February 2021.
The far right in a position of strength
Mario Draghi will remain in power to manage day-to-day business until elections are held on September 25.
But the campaign, historically short and in the middle of summer holidays, should benefit the far right.
The big favorite in the upcoming election is indeed the so-called "center-right" coalition, which brings together Forza Italia, Berlusconi's right, the far-right League of anti-migrant Matteo Salvini and the Fratelli party of 'Italy.
This post-fascist party is even given first in the voting intentions, with nearly 24%, ahead of the Democratic Party (22%) and the League (14%), according to the latest poll dated from the SWG institute, carried out on 18 July.
Draghi's departure strengthens the League, which seemed to be running out of steam.
"The political crisis allowed Matteo Salvini to 'satellize' Forza Italia, which had dominated the right until then, analyzes Marc Lazar. In this affair, Silvio Berlusconi, aging and very weak, aligned himself with the positions of the League By killing Mario Draghi politically, Matteo Salvini regained control."
The coalition, given a majority in both Chambers, could therefore take a much more right turn.
And the president of Fratelli d'Italia, Giorgia Meloni, 45, could become the next head of the Italian government.
Concern for the EU and the markets
A political upheaval that worries European countries and the markets.
European Commissioner for the Economy Paolo Gentiloni thus came out of his reserve on July 20, castigating the "irresponsible" parties who let go of the former boss of the ECB, at the risk of plunging the country into a "perfect storm".
The first beneficiary of the European recovery plan, Italy was indeed counting on a windfall of nearly 200 billion euros to stimulate its growth and avoid the recession which threatens it due to inflation and its energy dependence on Russia. .
But the disbursement of funds is linked to a series of reforms, which seem compromised with the departure of Mario Draghi.
"Italy risks losing tens of billions of euros from the recovery plan if 70% of the reforms provided for in the plan are not carried out by the end of 2022," warned a European diplomat.
The military aid provided by Italy to Ukraine is also likely to be called into question, points out Marc Lazar.
"If Fratelli from Italy has completely aligned himself with Europe and the Western world and condemned Russia very strongly, he explains, the League and Silvio Berlusconi have very strong relations with Putin and have been more than "Ambiguous, even ambivalent on the Russian aggression of Ukraine. Mario Draghi had decided to send weapons to Ukraine. What will be the position of the "center-right" coalition on this decisive question?
European partners and markets are therefore scrutinizing the situation carefully.
Italy's cost of debt has risen again and the Milan Stock Exchange fell on Thursday morning, a sign of market nervousness over uncertainty in the eurozone's third-largest economy.
The summary of the
France 24 week invites you to come back to the news that marked the week
I subscribe
Take international news everywhere with you!
Download the France 24 app
google-play-badge_EN