There is a choice of water in the gas or electricity in the air in France a few months before autumn and winter.
The executive is preparing, in fact, “for the worst-case scenario” concerning energy shortages which could affect the country, as declared on July 18, before the National Assembly, the Minister for the Ecological Transition, Agnès Pannier-Runacher.
Starting with gas, at the center of European concerns since the start of the war in Ukraine at the end of February.
Russia is a major supplier of this fossil energy, since it supplied 40% of European gas in 2021 – and 17% of French gas in particular.
But the situation has changed: there is a risk that Moscow will turn off the tap – in response to economic sanctions by European states.
The main Russian gas pipelines have recently sharply reduced their deliveries to the EU, and the maintenance of the main one – Nord Stream 1, through which passes more than a third of the 153 billion cubic meters of gas purchased annually by the EU – only accentuated the energy tension.
He finally reopened his floodgates, Thursday, July 21, after ten days of shutdown.
>> War in Ukraine: Germany, Russia, Canada and the Gas Turbine of Discord
“The risk (of a gas shortage in France this winter, editor’s note) is very high,” explained Anna Creti, professor of economics at the University of Paris-Dauphine, scientific director of the natural gas economics chair and of the climate economics chair.
“If we look at this winter and next winter, we don't have enough gas resources to cover the next twelve months.”
More than 12 million main residences were heated with natural gas in France in 2020, according to data from the Center for Economic Studies on Energy.
But unlike other European states like Germany, which imported 55% of its gas from Russia before the war in Ukraine, the fossil energy sold by Moscow represents only 17% of French energy supplies.
Less dependence... which could also ultimately lead Paris to have to export more gas to other European states in greater difficulty, in the name of a European solidarity mechanism.
Still, the threat of a gas shortage in France this winter “is real and serious”, warned, on July 20, the government spokesman, Olivier Véran.
He called for “paying attention to the use that everyone can have of gas” and gave a practical example (lowering your heating by one degree during the fall) in order to collectively reduce the consumption of this fossil fuel.
Olivier Véran: "There is a risk of a gas shortage that France and Europe take extremely seriously" pic.twitter.com/4YrCat72ch
– BFMTV (@BFMTV) July 13, 2022
On the same day, the European Commission detailed a plan to reduce Russian gas consumption by 15% this winter.
In particular, it proposes to limit the heating of certain buildings, to postpone the planned closure of nuclear power plants… and, there too, to lower the thermostat by one degree in private homes.
This plan will be examined on July 26 by European energy ministers.
Interruptibility, brownouts and blackouts
In addition to gas, France's electricity capacities in the coming months are also a source of concern.
“If it's cold, there's no wind this winter and we don't increase our electricity production with the French nuclear fleet, there could be a shortage of electricity.
It's not certain, but it's within the realm of the possible”, explains Nicolas Goldberg, energy expert at Columbus consulting.
Nuclear represented, in 2020, 67% of total electricity production in France, and electrical energy was used to heat nearly 11 million main residences.
But nearly half of the nuclear fleet is currently undergoing maintenance: 27 reactors out of a total of 56 were shut down for this reason at the time of writing this article – and work must continue on some of them. over a period of several more months.
This situation leads to a drop in electricity production that is not compensated by renewable energies – the development of which has moreover fallen behind in France, to the point where it risks soon being financially sanctioned by the European Union.
And if the winter were to be too harsh in terms of electricity, RTE – the company which manages the electricity transmission network in France – could activate levers in order to adjust supply and demand for electricity. energy.
Starting with the interruptibility mechanism: “Voluntary industries that consume a lot of electricity can be cut in a few seconds (between 15 minutes and an hour, ten times maximum over a year, editor's note) to relieve the network, and they have in return, financial compensation”, specifies Nicolas Goldberg, who adds that RTE “rarely uses this mechanism, once in 2019 and again in 2020 in recent years”.
The other two more extreme levers have, for their part, “never been used in France until today”, affirms the energy specialist: “RTE can slightly lower, temporarily, the tension on the electricity network French in order to relieve him a little.
Finally, it can resort to power cuts (“temporary, anticipated, localized and rotating” according to the RTE, editor’s note) for individuals and businesses for a maximum of two hours.
Sobriety and energy efficiency
But with electricity, as with gas, citizens are called upon to modify their daily behavior so as not to reach these extremes.
RTE has, for example, made several recommendations to reduce electricity consumption in France, in its report "Energy Futures 2050" published last June: more "shared" housing, "advanced development" of teleworking, the reduction of the heating temperature by 1°C… This plan would make it possible to reduce consumption by around 5 to 10% as of this winter.
All these ideas are more broadly part of a plan of “energy sobriety”, which the executive has made its hobbyhorse.
Emmanuel Macron announced on July 14 that a political plan will be unveiled at the start of the school year (in September) to consume less gas and electricity in France.
The objective will be to reduce energy consumption by 10%, compared to 2019, by 2024.
Companies are starting to take this path.
Perifem, a federation which brings together all of the distribution players, announced on July 18 the deployment of several measures from next October 15 "in anticipation" of a shortage of electricity: extinction of illuminated signs from the closure, reduced lighting, more sober energy management in stores, etc.
According to Nicolas Goldberg, there is no other “short-term” choice than energy sobriety: “The means of energy production (particularly renewables) take time to be implemented, so we have to play on the only lever we have at the moment, namely consumption”.
However, this change in usage will not be enough on its own to save energy.
“In the medium term, energy efficiency will also be needed in France, such as for example an even more extensive renovation of buildings (there are 4.8 million thermal sieves in France, editor’s note)”, continues the specialist, who concludes: “Current tensions over energy are set to last for several years”.
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