Strategic analyst Dan Negria: Russia's war in Ukraine was a major turning point for the Germans
Biden's division of the world into democrats and autocrats is a big mistake
The Ukrainian army showed fierce resistance in the face of the Russian army.
AFP
Many NATO members have raised their military budgets.
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In late February, the world woke up to the war of Russia, the largest European country in terms of area, population and military capabilities, against its smaller and weaker neighbor Ukraine.
At the same time, China showed its support for Russian President Vladimir Putin's war, and even began to move aggressively, increasing its military pressure on Taiwan, militarizing the South China Sea, and engaging in naval conflicts with neighboring countries.
All this prompted many countries of the world to re-calculate their geopolitical and security calculations with the aim of enhancing their security, so that one day they would not find themselves easy prey for a stronger and larger country.
These global conditions are an opportunity for the administration of US President Joe Biden to reflect on its courageous political moves to enhance American security, according to Dan Negria, director of the Center for Freedom and Prosperity of the Atlantic Council.
In an analysis published by the "National Interest" magazine, Negria, who served as a special representative for the US State Department for Commercial and Business Affairs, and a member of the Ministry's Office of Political Planning, reviewed the most prominent transformations provoked by the Russian war against Ukraine, leading to the position of the United States, and the need to reconsider many Its policies, especially US President Joe Biden's classification of the world's countries into democratic countries and tyrannical dictatorships, and his saying that the world is witnessing a struggle between democracy and dictatorship.
Change through trade
Regarding Germany, which has the largest economy in Europe, Negria says that during the 16-year rule of former Chancellor Angela Merkel, and earlier, Germany adopted the principle of "change through trade" to deal with Russia, hoping that economic relations with Russia will lead to its adoption of policies Rational interior and exterior.
And almost the same policy adopted by Germany in dealing with China.
This policy brought significant gains to German companies.
In recent decades, Germany has reduced its military spending to about 1% of GDP, and reduced the size of the army. The number of tanks, for example, decreased from 5,000 tanks during the Cold War to 266 in 2022.
But the Russian war in Ukraine marked a major turning point for the Germans, who faced the fact that a European country no more than two hours by plane from their country was fighting fiercely for its sovereign existence against an army that was fighting it, killing civilians and destroying cities.
The coalition government, backed by broad popular support, quickly adopted drastic changes to German defense policies, including an additional €100 billion in military spending.
German politicians began talking about the necessity of Germany taking a leading role in Europe on various levels, including the military level, which is what is happening for the first time since World War II.
As for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the western bulwark against the former Soviet Union, which French President Emmanuel Macron said only three years ago, it was in a state of "brain death", it received a powerful boost from the recent Russian war.
For decades, Americans have been complaining about the weak military spending of their European allies, members of the alliance.
In 2014, only three of the 28 member states of the alliance committed to allocating 2% of their GDP to military spending, as required by the alliance's charter.
However, the number has risen today to nine countries, while other member states intend to reach this percentage by 2024. At the recent NATO summit in the Spanish capital Madrid, member states spoke of their intention to allocate 2.5% or 3% of their GDP for defense purposes.
Another major change for NATO, which the United States has welcomed, is to view China as a strategic threat that the alliance must deal with.
In the Far East, where Japan has a pacifist constitution that has imposed severe restrictions on the country's military capabilities since the end of World War II, the increasing military threats from Russia, China, and North Korea have prompted clear shifts in Japanese public opinion and the political elite in favor of strengthening the country's military capabilities.
In 2015, Japan's parliament approved a constitutional amendment allowing Japan to deploy military forces abroad in "collective self-defense" missions with allied nations.
With the increasing "aggressive moves" by Russia and China, the Japanese government announced last April to double military spending to 2% of GDP, or $106 billion, the third largest military budget in the world.
good steps
Negria believes that the Biden administration took many good steps after the Russian war on Ukraine, as it provided strong military, economic and diplomatic support to Ukraine, led NATO's moves to provide support to Ukraine, and coordinated an international sanctions campaign against Russia.
It also issued a strong warning to China, not to violate international sanctions imposed on Russia or provide military support to it.
But the Biden administration can do more than this. It can exploit the crisis, as many countries in the world have done, to implement courageous changes in order to enhance American security.
Negria believes that it is possible to reconsider the so-called "Biden Doctrine" launched by the US President to define the world crisis, which is the conflict between democracy and dictatorship.
The Ukrainian war proved that this principle is not convincing.
And that what threatens American security, and perhaps global security, is not dictatorship and tyranny in general, but the threat comes from China and Russia in particular, not only because they are two tyrannical countries, but because they are strong, aggressive, and expansionist states that threaten American interests by using their military and economic capabilities and their illegal trade practices. justice, and a threat to world peace.
In his analysis, Negria notes that the Biden administration has criticized a number of allied and friendly countries, such as Poland, Turkey, India, Thailand, Vietnam and others, over the background of democracy and human rights issues, stressing that this position is a mistake on Biden's part, because these countries are important in terms of The strategy for the United States in its confrontation with China and Russia.
The former American strategist and diplomat calls for invoking the concept of the free world, which was used by the United States during the Cold War, with its redefinition to include all countries in the world that wish to continue their independence from Chinese or Russian control, whether those countries were democracies or dictatorships.
At the same time, the United States can continue to encourage democracy, but through quiet diplomacy.
In 2014, only three of the 28 NATO member states committed to allocating 2% of their GDP to military spending, as required by the alliance's charter. Today, however, the number has risen to nine, while other member states intend to reach this percentage by 2024.
Russia's war on Ukraine prompted many countries of the world to re-calculate their geopolitical and security calculations with the aim of enhancing their security, so that they would not one day find themselves easy prey for a stronger and larger country.
During the reign of former Chancellor Angela Merkel, who reached 16 years, and before, Germany adopted the principle of "change through trade" to deal with Russia, hoping that economic relations with Russia would lead to its adoption
of rational domestic and foreign policies.
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