Indispensable for Europe and Russia
Turkish researcher: Ankara is gaining a lot from "NATO"... but it has a bumpy road ahead
NATO leaders have finally realized the importance of Turkey in the alliance.
AFP
Erdogan seeks to achieve the greatest gains for his country from America and NATO.
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Although Turkey has benefited greatly from its membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the current developments on the world stage may pose some difficulties for Ankara.
“With the design of the new NATO strategic concept to deal with a global security environment, defined by great power competition, it was important for Ankara Ensure that the importance of the issue of terrorism is not underestimated.
security threats
"If we put aside major global issues such as climate, Internet security, or competition for space, it is traditional state-centric security threats that ultimately define the spirit of this document," Dalay adds.
Going forward, Ankara will likely use this document, and its new trilateral memorandum with Sweden and Finland, to pressure NATO and its members to provide more support in its fight against the PKK, and to refrain from supporting the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) and the associated Democratic Union Party (PYD). out.
However, since the PYD/YPG is only banned as a terrorist organization by Turkey, and not by any other NATO country, this issue is likely to continue to confuse relations, especially with the United States, as a partner. Chairman of the group.
In addition, with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the eastern flank is understood to have become a central focus of NATO's work.
But from a Russian point of view, the East and the South are not seen as two separate spaces, but as one, and Turkey is a major player in both spaces.
Ankara is a major power in the Black Sea region, but Turkey and Russia are already facing each other in many conflicts in the Mediterranean region, especially Syria and Libya.
Commitment to the south wing
In the face of continued regional instability and chaos, state collapse, and growing Russian and Chinese footprints, Turkey wants NATO to remain committed to its southern flank and southern neighbourhood.
The strong emphasis on the southern neighborhood, in the Middle East and Africa, in the concept note was consistent with this preference.
As a member of NATO, Turkey welcomes discussions about European security that are taking place at the NATO level, rather than the EU level, and believes that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has shown that the idea of European strategic independence is devoid of content and force, at least for the time being. .
The conquest seems to have muted these discussions, so that France, the main hero of the idea, speaks of these concepts much less now than before.
With the exception of Poland, it was the non-EU NATO members, namely the United States, the United Kingdom, and Turkey, that were more willing early on to provide Ukraine with military equipment, especially missiles and armed drones.
difference probability
Going forward, there is likely to be a difference in views and policies between the European Union and non-NATO member states in dealing with European security.
In addition, the debate within the EU should be clearer, in terms of the role and standing of the four non-EU European actors: the United Kingdom, Turkey, Norway and Ukraine.
But Turkey's role in European security in discussions at the EU level, including its potential role in the EU's common foreign and security policy, remains undetermined.
However, the experience of the years of former US President Donald Trump, and the possibility of another Trump-minded president in the United States, means that the US commitment to NATO and European security can no longer be taken for granted.
In such a scenario, EU countries will have to play a greater role in European security, and the same scenario further emphasizes the importance of an organized dialogue between Turkey and the European Union, on the European security architecture.
With the prospective membership of Sweden and Finland, and a focus on systematic competition with China in the strategic concept, NATO has become more European in its membership composition, but more global in its ambition by establishing more links between Euro-Atlantic security and Asia-Pacific.
This NATO globalization is likely to create even more need for a stronger European pillar within the alliance, and thus increase the need for a Europe-wide security dialogue between the EU and non-EU European powers.
Russia
Finally, as expected, Russia falls unequivocally in the category of the enemy in the strategic concept, which may put pressure on Turkey's complex relationship with Russia, as both countries have developed competitive cooperation through different conflict zones - Syria, Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh, In the last years.
A rupture of these relations would come at a significant cost to Ankara, but it is also unlikely that the kind of relationship between Ankara and Moscow that it developed before the invasion of Ukraine will remain acceptable.
As NATO's new strategic concept was designed to deal with a global security environment, defined by great power competition, it was important for Ankara to ensure that the issue of terrorism was not underestimated.
Ankara is a major power in the Black Sea region, but Turkey and Russia are already facing each other in many conflicts in the Mediterranean region, notably Syria and Libya.
The debate within the EU should be clearer in terms of the role and standing of the four non-EU European actors, namely the United Kingdom, Turkey, Norway and Ukraine.
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