CAIRO -
After a visit that concluded yesterday, Tuesday, to Germany;
It carried an announcement of his country's readiness to export eastern Mediterranean gas to Europe through Egyptian stations, as part of a move to reduce dependence on Russian gas;
Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi arrived - on a visit that is the first of its kind - today, Wednesday, to Serbia, which is known for a different position from its neighbors in Europe regarding the rejection of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
This comes after Sisi’s first meeting with US President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the Jeddah summit last week in Saudi Arabia, which raises questions about the succession of the two visits that coincide with international developments and intertwined alliances of contradictory regional and international interests, and the impact of this on Cairo’s management of its foreign policy. Formulate alternatives far from the policy of the axes that have dominated their positions for decades?
With the passage of nearly 5 months since the Ukrainian war, Cairo is still watching carefully without clear support for one party at the expense of another, as it had previously supported a UN resolution calling for Russia's withdrawal from Ukraine, while at the same time refusing to employ economic sanctions against Moscow.
In recent history, with regard to the east and west axes, Egypt has tended since the eighties of the last century to the American side, which is reinforced by the two countries’ assertion that their relations are strategic, especially at the military level, but in recent years it has sailed - to some extent - east, within the framework of the margin of maneuver Which I followed to face Western pressure, according to observers.
The foregoing raises a major question;
Do the current international and regional developments push Egypt to formulate alternatives far from the policy of the axes?
This results in a set of questions that Al Jazeera Net seeks, through political analysts, to answer, the most important of which are;
Did Egypt choose Europe at the expense of Russia under the recent energy agreements?
Do you have papers to formulate alternatives far from the policy of the axes?
And what did it cost?
What is the role of the triad of energy, water security and wheat import in influencing Cairo's foreign policy?
A joint press conference between Sisi (left) and German Chancellor Olaf Schulz in Berlin (French)
Do the current international developments push Egypt to formulate alternatives to the policy of the axes?
Egyptian academic and political analyst Khairy Omar believes that his country seeks to diversify its foreign relations, and this appeared in the diversity of sources of armament and trade and industry agreements between various international powers;
So that it is not subject to sudden changes in the international arena that push it to bear new burdens.
Omar reinforced his opinion by noting that Sisi went to Serbia, which is closer to the Russian side, after his direct visit to Germany, one of the parties affected by the raging Ukrainian war, especially in terms of gas supplies.
He stressed that this reflects the Egyptian desire not to take sides, and to stress that Cairo is not with one party against another.
The Egyptian academic and political analyst Muhammad Al-Zawawi agreed with the same opinion, pointing out that Cairo has learned throughout its modern history not to depend on a country, whether in its foreign policies or even with regard to armaments and energy policies.
He said that the current international crisis has entrenched that concept in his country, and may even push Egypt to more self-reliance in the field of food security, led by securing large reserves of locally grown wheat.
President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi holds summit-level talks with Serbian President @avucic in
Belgrade
— Presidency of the Arab Republic of Egypt (@EGPresidency_AR) July 20, 2022
Why did Cairo not take a clear position on the Ukrainian war?
Egypt’s interests seem conflicting regarding the Ukrainian war. On the one hand, it is at the top of importers of wheat from Russia and Ukraine (one of its largest suppliers in the world), in addition to its military relations with the Russian side, reinforced by arms agreements in recent years and the El Dabaa nuclear reactor launched by the “ROSATOM” company. The Russian state-owned, on the other hand, has strategic relations with the US side and mutual interests with various European capitals.
Based on the foregoing, Khairy Omar believes that the Egyptian position on the Ukrainian war remains neutral;
Because it is linked to a path away from international blocs, and on the other hand, it is directly linked to Egyptian interests, as Cairo has worked to neutralize its various interests between East and West, which can be seen from the recent visits and tours of officials to world capitals.
#Urgent: #Sisi during a press conference with the German Chancellor: The current situation requires everyone to be responsible to mitigate the repercussions of the crisis in #Ukraine, and we call on international financial institutions to help #Egypt to overcome the economic crises pic.twitter.com/4xkxrrl2Gv
— Monitor Network (@RassdNewsN) July 18, 2022
Eastern Mediterranean gas reaches Europe through Egyptian stations.. Did Egypt choose the West at the expense of Russia?
Omar rules out this scenario, explaining that Cairo did not choose one party at the expense of another, as the gas issue has been settled since 2017, with international agreements indicating that Egypt will become a station for liquefying eastern Mediterranean gas to Europe, which means that the current Egyptian position is not related to the policy of axes or Ukrainian war.
On the other hand, Al-Zawawi believes that Egypt tends to the Western camp led by Europe and the United States in the fields of exploration, extraction and export, but he stressed that his country still maintains a good relationship with Russia, which is constructing the El Dabaa reactor.
He added that Egypt is working to pump gas to the European market, which is the largest consumer of energy in the region, and therefore it is helping it to diversify energy policies away from the Russian monopoly, stressing that this serves to maximize Egypt's position, as we saw in the recent agreement with Germany.
He also pointed out that despite the fact that Egypt's share is relatively small compared to the other parties in its gas wells, as well as its shares in the gas liquefaction plants in Idku and Damietta (in the north of the country), it is working hard to be the political center for energy negotiations, and has worked to integrate Israel into Arab gas pipeline recently.
“The agreement to export gas through #Egypt is historic.” Bennett praises the agreement to export Israeli gas to Europe with the aim of dispensing with Russian gas pic.twitter.com/88hOvHmpzP
- Al Jazeera Channel (@AJArabic) June 15, 2022
What Egypt expects from the international community?
In this regard, Omar asserts that Cairo does not expect anything from the West to change its reservations about the human rights file or issues of democracy, and it also avoided talking during the last Jeddah summit about the Renaissance Dam.
He explained that the file of the dam seems confusing in its management from the Egyptian side, and perhaps the explanation of this is related to the idea of the geology of the dam, as it seems that Cairo has calculations that it will not be completed for structural reasons, which may explain the current officially agreed silence, according to his belief.
Is Egypt able to move away from the policy of axes?
Political analyst Khairy Omar believes that the easy and best solution for Egypt is to move away from the policy of axes, stressing its ability to do so.
He explained that the recent Jeddah conference showed that Cairo had existing reservations indicating its ability to maneuver, as US President Joe Biden was seeking an Arab mobilization against Iran in conjunction with the imposition of Israel's integration in the region, as he described it.
He added that despite the American temptations, the Egyptian position remains committed to considering Israel a security problem, and therefore opposing its integration in the region, pointing out that even if regional and international conditions change, Israeli integration will be limited and its influence will remain weak and carried on an American wing.
With Biden's visit - according to Omar - it became clear that Arab officials realized the necessity of rapprochement between them to neutralize any international burdens, which made the US president not take what he wanted, according to Omar's expression.
Omar believed that what he described as the current regional maturity, came after an internal movement in the past two years, and would create a state of common awareness in the future, through which the Arab countries might lead an influential bloc on positive neutrality, reinforced by Egyptian-Saudi cooperation.
In the same context, Al-Zawawi stressed that it is not possible to imagine Egypt’s return to the policy of axes again, as happened in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the total dependence on America regarding the supply of weapons, especially fighters, as the presence of Russia as an alternative to arming the latest generations of fighters, remains an option. Another well for the American refusal to export advanced technology in that field.
After the signing of a tripartite agreement to export gas from #Israel to Europe via #Egypt... Egyptian and Arab discontent is sweeping social media sites, considering it an agreement that strengthens the occupation in the region pic.twitter.com/meMyvmgK1d
- Al Jazeera Egypt (@AJA_Egypt) June 16, 2022
Does Egypt have papers to formulate alternatives far from the policy of the axes?
And what is the replacement cost?
Omar and Al-Zawawi agree that Egypt has many cards. On the one hand, it has become a player in the energy market, especially gas, in addition to its efforts to support a green economy based on clean energy, as well as its role in reducing illegal immigration to Europe, and sharing it with American or Russian interests. in the region.
In an article in Al-Shorouk newspaper, Mostafa Kamel El-Sayed, a professor of political science at Cairo University, presented a set of indicators and questions that determine whether or not Egypt will become a stable, effective country at the regional level and a voice at the global level.
The most prominent of these questions, according to Al-Sayed, is whether it is in the interest of Egypt, in light of unstable international conditions, to commit to closer relations with one of the major powers at the expense of its relations with other major powers, or is flexibility in the intensity and areas of relations with the old and emerging major powers the eye of wisdom in these circumstances. ?
As for the cost of replacing the axes, Khairy Omar saw that Egypt taking a position in favor of one axis at the expense of another means that it will be an advanced point on this or that axis, which generates burdens that it is not wise to bear.
He warned that if Cairo headed east, it might face American pressure, sanctions and restrictions in regional and local files, and if it headed west, it would be hostile to the Russians, threatening its interests in different spots where it is a player, whether in Ethiopia, Libya or Syria.