She is still an important player on the scene
Ukraine war does not affect the mission of the Russian army in Syria
A Russian "Sukhoi-24" takes off for a tour of the Syrian-Turkish border.
Reuters
Russian soldiers are in Syria, where Moscow is still determined to build up its forces to maintain its influence.
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In late February, when Russia launched its war on Ukraine, local analysts began speculating about how the war might affect Moscow's military presence in Syria.
But this prediction did not last long, and due to the stubborn resistance of the Ukrainian army, Russia began withdrawing its military units from the infantry, the navy, and the engineering from various parts of Syria.
Accordingly, many believed that Moscow's willingness, or perhaps its ability, to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad had been affected by the high tension in Ukraine.
Thus, the Russian role in Syria will decrease significantly.
design
But the recent developments on the ground tell a completely different story. In addition to strengthening its forces in northern Syria in response to Turkish threats to carry out a military operation inside the Syrian borders, Moscow is now carrying out its military operations as it used to before, as it conducts joint exercises with the Syrian forces on Syrian territory, Humanitarian aid is provided in Sweida and Al-Hasakah.
These Russian activities indicate that despite the diminishing Russian presence in Syria, Moscow is determined to mobilize its forces there to maintain its influence in that country.
Since September 2015, about 63,000 Russian soldiers have been deployed to Syria.
Although the number of Russian soldiers currently in Syria is lower, it is more important to recognize that Moscow does not really need to keep many soldiers there, to maintain its ability to carry out its military operations.
This is because the level of effective fighting has greatly decreased since March 2020, after a Russian- and Turkish-brokered ceasefire agreement was reached in Idlib.
Given that the fighting fronts with the Syrian opposition have stopped, Russia can restore its units from Syria, without fearing the return of attacks by the Syrian opposition forces.
The most accurate measure of Russia's influence in Syria is its ability to stabilize the fractured north, and so far Moscow's war in Ukraine has had little impact on the Russian military's mission in Syria.
green light
In fact, Russia has intensified its activities in the northern part of Syria to deter Turkey from carrying out any military operation against the Kurdish factions stationed there.
In late May, Moscow deployed soldiers and six Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopters, in addition to two Su-34 fighter jets and a bomber, at Qamishli Airport, according to Syrian media outlets.
Military convoys containing dozens of personnel carriers were also deployed in the cities of Manbij and Tal Rifaat.
More importantly, Russia has intensified the activities of its air forces over the Syrian-Turkish border, in addition to the front lines in the provinces of Aleppo and Hasaka.
The aim of these activities is to ensure that no Turkish attack on the region will take place without a green light from Moscow.
mediation
At the same time, Moscow remains involved in mediating between the Syrian government and the Kurdish factions in the northeastern region of Syria.
Despite the absence of any hostile activity between Damascus and Kurdish soldiers, clashes persist in the region, and Russia's ability to ease these tensions is often tested.
The latest round of Russian-led negotiations emerged last April, when Russia succeeded in persuading the rival Kurdish factions and Syrian government forces to lift the siege on each other.
This agreement demonstrated Moscow's continued ability to act as a mediator.
Standing between Israel and Iran
Russia also seems determined to stand between Iran and Israel to prevent any escalation between the two parties.
For example, Russia has allowed Israeli aircraft to use Syrian airspace to target sites linked to Iran and arms shipments in Syria.
Russia has also continued to prevent Iran from deploying its allies near the Israeli border, but at the same time, Russia has pressured Israel to limit air strikes on Syria and defend Iran's interests.
News reports said that Russia fired S-300 anti-aircraft missiles at Israeli aircraft over Syria, and carried out joint patrols along the Golan Heights, simulating a confrontation with hostile drones.
In addition to its military presence, Russia's ability to influence events in Syria depends on the financial support it provides to allied militias.
Although there is very little information about Russian funding for local militias in Syria, according to Syrian media websites, Moscow appears to have provided about $250,000 in May to pay the salaries of about 16,000 fighters linked to local armed groups.
Support Questions
But it is not known how long this support will last, as financial difficulties stemming from the war in Ukraine could hamper Moscow's ability to continue funding a second war effort.
And if Russian funding stops getting in, some militias could accept funding from Iran or the Syrian government, but opposition militants in the south, hostile to Tehran and Damascus, are not expected to do so peacefully.
These developments could lead to destabilizing security in southern Syria, which in turn could threaten national security in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan across the border, and thus the movement of a new wave of refugees and smuggling activity.
Accordingly, Russia's continued presence in Syria has more security implications than the turbulent north of Syria.
Moscow's changing role in Syria will remain the subject of intense regional speculation, but while the war in Ukraine has weakened the Russian military's capacity and changed its strategic priorities, it is hard to imagine any scenario involving Russia relinquishing its role in maintaining the fragile status quo in Syria.
Conversely, Russia's withdrawal from Syria, due to its war in Ukraine, which was previously highly anticipated, now appears to be a dismal outcome.
Haid Haid is a Syrian writer working as a consultant on the Middle East at Chatham House
Russia seems determined to stand between Iran and Israel to prevent any escalation between the two parties. Russia has allowed Israeli planes to use Syrian airspace to target sites linked to Iran and arms shipments in Syria.
In addition to strengthening its forces in northern Syria in response to Turkish threats to carry out a military operation inside the Syrian borders, Moscow is now carrying out its military operations as usual, conducting joint exercises with the Syrian forces on Syrian territory, and providing humanitarian aid in both As-Suwayda and Al-Hasakah.
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