(International Observation) What are the strategic considerations for US President Biden's first visit to the Middle East?
China News Agency, Beijing, July 17th: What are the strategic considerations for US President Biden's first visit to the Middle East?
Author Zhang Huandi
On the 16th local time, US President Biden ended his first visit to the Middle East during his tenure.
During this period, Biden visited Israel, the Palestinian West Bank and Saudi Arabia successively, and held talks with many heads of state and dignitaries.
Why did Biden start his trip to the Middle East at this time?
What will be the impact?
Wen Jing, an assistant researcher at the Center for Strategic and Security Studies of Tsinghua University, pointed out in an interview with China News Agency that Biden chose to leave at this time to represent the United States is reassessing its relations with Middle Eastern countries. This trip will have a certain effect in the short term, but the long-term effect will depend on U.S. investment in the Middle East in the future.
Three factors for Biden's "refill" visit to the Middle East
Wen Jing pointed out that the order of the US President's visits after taking office is very elegant.
In 2017, the then US President Trump chose Saudi Arabia as the first stop of his visit, conveying to the outside world the strategic importance of the Middle East in US diplomacy and the special relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia.
Biden visited the Middle East with a "replenish vote" nearly a year and a half after he took office. This means that Middle East affairs were not a priority issue of US diplomacy before. Khashoggi's murder.
Wen Jing said that another three practical factors prompted Biden to change his attitude and go to the Middle East in person.
First of all, the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has triggered volatility in the global energy market, and domestic oil prices in the United States have also risen.
At the same time, the relatively neutral attitude of many Middle Eastern countries in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict also makes the United States wary of Russia's increasing influence in the Middle East.
Secondly, the US mid-term elections are about to be held this fall, and Biden needs to win the support of both parties in the country, especially the support of Jewish voters.
Finally, there are variables in Israeli politics due to the early resignation of Israeli Prime Minister Bennett. Biden needs to grasp the trend of Israeli politics through this visit and make plans and preparations in advance.
Repair relationship and win cooperation
Wen Jing pointed out that one of the purposes of Biden's trip is to repair the U.S.-Saudi relationship damaged by the Khashoggi killing and restore U.S. influence in the Middle East.
Biden held talks with Saudi King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed on the 15th. The joint statement issued after the talks said that the two sides believe that it is important to continue the strategic partnership between the two countries.
However, according to the Russian Satellite News Agency, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed also emphasized during the talks that if the United States wants to impose its own values on others, only NATO will stay by its side.
On the Middle East peace process, a traditional political and security topic in the Middle East, Wen Jing believes that Biden has not made any substantive remarks except to reiterate his support for the "two-state solution" on the Palestinian-Israeli issue.
In addition, Biden held online meetings with Israeli Prime Minister Lapid, Indian Prime Minister Modi and UAE President Mohammed on the 14th to cooperate on food security and clean energy.
Biden also announced that he will further cooperate with Saudi Arabia in high-tech, clean energy and other fields.
Wen Jing analyzed that Biden hopes to win over Israel and Saudi Arabia to carry out more cooperation in clean energy, aerospace, 5G and other technical fields, and to institutionalize and deepen such cooperation.
In addition, the "Abraham Agreement" signed by Israel and the United Arab Emirates has normalized diplomatic relations between the two sides. This time, Biden also hopes to promote the two sides to achieve more breakthroughs from the economic level.
Middle East "begging for oil" for lower oil prices
The Associated Press reported that oil prices in the United States have soared recently due to factors such as the new crown epidemic, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and Western sanctions against Russia.
According to data from the American Automobile Association, in June this year, the average gasoline price in the United States once exceeded $5 a gallon, a record high.
In response to soaring oil prices, the United States has announced the release of its strategic oil reserves three times since November last year, but with poor results.
The US "Washington Post" said that before the US mid-term elections this fall, rising oil prices have become the main domestic political pressure facing the Biden administration.
Biden said in an article in the Washington Post on the 9th of this month that the energy supply in the Middle East is very critical, which is one of the important reasons why he chose to visit Saudi Arabia.
Biden said on the 15th that he had reached an "important agreement" with Saudi Arabia, which is expected to further increase oil supply.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed said on the 16th that Saudi Arabia "has the ability" to increase domestic crude oil production capacity to 13 million barrels per day, but has no additional capacity to continue to increase crude oil production for the time being.
At present, it remains to be seen whether Biden's "begging for oil" can solve his "urgent" of high domestic oil prices.
or increase the instability of the Middle East
Wen Jing believes that Biden's trip will have a certain effect in the short term, the relationship between the United States and its allies in the Middle East can be eased, and the energy crisis caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine can also be eased to a certain extent.
However, some actions by the United States, Saudi Arabia and Israel may cause a series of reactions from Iran, increasing regional instability.
"The long-term impact of this trip will depend on whether the United States will continue to invest in the Middle East in the future." Wen Jing pointed out that since the United States proposed the "Asia-Pacific Rebalancing Strategy", its strategic focus has shifted eastward. Biden visited the Middle East before South Korea and Japan can also see that they are pushing the "Indo-Pacific strategy".
The Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region are the two regions that the United States has been paying attention to for a long time. How Biden decides to invest in the two regions in the future is the key to predicting the impact.
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