Ma Xiaolin's column
Biden's first visit to the Middle East no longer matters
Ma Xiaolin (Professor of Zhejiang University of Foreign Languages)
From July 13th to 16th, US President Joe Biden completed his first trip to the Middle East in office.
Whatever Biden negotiates with his hosts in Israel, Palestine and Saudi Arabia is irrelevant, because the times are witnessing a new world, a new great power and a new Middle East, especially the United States and the Middle East, each other's "love" and weight In decline, both relationships and distances are reconfigured.
From a philosophical point of view, the sun is new every day, and the new world, the new powers and the new Middle East are neither a copy of yesterday nor a mirror image of tomorrow, because changes have been, are and will be, and the resulting forces and relationships The pattern, system and order situation all show obvious uncertainty and strong plasticity.
It may be more profound to sort out the relationship between the United States and the Middle East by separating from the specific agenda than to analyze the gains and losses of Biden's trip.
First, the world is new.
Today's world is at the intersection of three overlapping and fork points, including the unprecedented change in a century, the pandemic of the new crown epidemic, and the great game of conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The process of globalization has encountered serious setbacks, cooperation between major powers has entered a historical low point, the world economy is sinking in an all-round way, and state-to-state relations are fragile and volatile. , the international order is chaotic and unstable, and most countries have internal and external troubles... In a word, the world has entered a modern version of the Spring and Autumn Period and the Warring States Period.
In this context, the Middle East is only the fringes and supporting roles of chaotic rivers and lakes, and it is a rare "chicken area" that can be predicted not to trigger a world war.
Second, great powers are new.
The Yalta System formed after World War II determined the basic framework and legal basis for co-governance by great powers, and reached operational regulations for war and peace with the United Nations as the platform, the UN Security Council as the center, and the five major powers China, the United States, the Soviet Union, Britain and France as the core.
However, the great powers are not what they used to be - Britain and France have already become medium-sized countries, the United States has gone through its peak and is showing a downward trend, and Russia, the successor of the Soviet Union, not only ranks third in terms of economic aggregate, but also has a decline in military strength, while China has gradually entered the stage from strong to strong. A rising trajectory.
For the three major powers, China, the United States and Russia, the value and weight of the Middle East also show new signs: the United States remains passive, Russia focuses on strategic strategies, and China is gradually entering a better state.
Third, the Middle East is also new.
The long-term preference of major powers for the Middle East has been empathized by other hotspots, and the investment of major powers in the Middle East is also living within their means.
The traditional geopolitical game in the Middle East is still the main narrative and mainstream discourse. However, the major local players have been exhausted in stages, the old-fashioned enmity is dissolving and evolving, the identity politics struggle is weak and ebb, and the new vertical and horizontal is evolving.
What is new in the Middle East is that, at first glance, the situation is generally calm. On closer inspection, the fundamental consensus on peace and development has not been reached. It is just that the major powers are increasingly relegated to supporting roles, and regional forces have been promoted to lead singers.
After sorting out these big changes, let’s analyze why Biden’s trip to the Middle East is insignificant.
After the end of the Cold War, the United States and the Middle East have never been so ruthless and indifferent.
During Clinton's two terms, almost all of his energy was devoted to the Middle East peace process, and he achieved great success; during George W. Bush's two terms, the Middle East was not only the core area of "democratic transformation", but also the main theater where the United States tried to rewrite the geopolitical appearance with the help of the two wars. ; During Obama's two terms, although he has initiated a strategic contraction, he also regards the Middle East as the cornerstone of strategy and diplomacy, second only to Europe; Trump has only been in office for one term and has accelerated the contraction, but after all, he gave the Middle East the honor of his first visit.
Biden's trip is long overdue, time and space are ranked behind Europe and Asia-Pacific, no one believes that he attaches importance to the Middle East.
In contrast, Middle Eastern countries are increasingly not taking the United States seriously.
It is not only because of the decline in US strength, the reduction of investment, and the withdrawal of resources, but also the fact that the United States is quite unreliable, and the sense of existence of other major powers has gradually increased and strengthened.
Since King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia changed his habit in 2005 and no longer designated the United States as his first foreign visit, but turned to China, many Middle East leaders have also excluded the United States from their first visit after taking office.
Meanwhile, as Russia returns to the Middle East with its oil wealth, U.S. allies would rather step on stilts between the U.S. and Russia than put all their eggs in the U.S. basket.
As for the old enemy Iran, it has always warned the United States to "go as far as possible".
The United States and the Middle East are gradually drifting apart, and we can also take an inventory of the political legacy of several U.S. presidents for circumstantial evidence.
Clinton vigorously promoted the peace process, including witnessing the signing of the Oslo Agreement between Palestine and Israel, which led to the peace between Jordan and Israel; Bush Jr. introduced the "two-state solution" peace roadmap for Palestine and Israel, and also overthrew Saddam's regime and changed the Iraqi power structure; Obama actively cooperated with The Islamic countries reconciled, reached the Iran nuclear agreement and led more than 60 countries to encircle and suppress the "Islamic State" armed forces; Trump broke the political taboo and moved the embassy to Jerusalem, launched the "Agreement of the Century" and facilitated the establishment of diplomatic relations between the four Arab countries and Israel, and also from the Gulf oil-producing countries. Knock away huge military spending and investment.
Even if Biden's term has just begun, it is difficult to imagine that he will achieve the same diplomatic and military achievements as his predecessor in the Middle East and leave a considerable political legacy, because he is eccentric and is really powerless as a lame-duck president.
The key is that the Biden administration’s strategic focus is on Europe and the Indo-Pacific, its strategic partners are European and Indo-Pacific countries, and its strategic appeal is to spend less while maintaining U.S. hegemony.
But in the eyes of the Middle East heroes who are used to watching the snarky and full of grocers' calculations, milk is the mother, and the United States is not benevolent, and I will not follow.
Biden's trip is destined to have no major gains.
The internal struggle in Israel is in full swing, and the government collapses every three or five times, not to mention that the national interests of the United States and Israel are not consistent; Saudi Arabia, whose leaders refused to answer Biden’s “calls for help” twice at the beginning of the year, this time Biden put down his posture to increase oil, maintain sanctions against Russia and contain Iran, deviating from Saudi Arabia’s established energy and foreign policy, the Saudi government will definitely not. Sincerely promise to take chestnuts from the fire of the United States.