China News Service, July 15 (Reporter Meng Xiangjun) Is the "knife" inserted by Russia into the middle of NATO member states, how easy is it to use?
On July 13, the European Commission issued a new guideline allowing some sanctioned Russian goods to be transported by rail via Lithuania to the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad.
Lithuania has stuck with Russia for a month. Why did the EU make concessions?
And why, Lithuania was "slapped in the face"?
【Strategic location, special needs】
Kaliningrad is a Russian enclave in the Baltic Sea that was placed under the Soviet Union in 1945.
Although Kaliningrad Oblast is the smallest state in the Russian Federation, its status is enormous.
Russian media illustrate how Russian goods transit through Lithuania and transport them to Kaliningrad.
Image source: Screenshot of the Russian Satellite News Agency report
The Baltic Fleet, one of Russia's four major fleets, is stationed there, and the "Dagger" hypersonic missiles are deployed, like a "sharp knife" inserted between the two NATO member states of Poland and Lithuania.
Whether to Vilnius, Warsaw, Copenhagen or Stockholm, the distance will not exceed 600 kilometers. In other words, the surrounding countries are all within Russia's "scope".
Therefore, the strategic position of Kaliningrad is crucial, and ensuring the supply of local materials is of course a matter of great concern to Moscow.
It is precisely because of the failure to border Russia that the railway has become the main artery of local transportation. As a result, the transit of materials through Belarus and Lithuania is almost the only option by land.
Shipping is also available.
Cargo ships set sail from St. Petersburg and can cross the Baltic Sea to reach Kaliningrad, but in this way, they will seek distance and travel thousands of kilometers to reach the shore.
Therefore, sea freight is an option.
【Forbidden! Lithuania has repeatedly attacked]
Since the entry of the Russian army into Ukraine, the "anti-Russian factor" in Lithuania has become increasingly active, and has finally developed a way to deal with Putin.
On June 18, Lithuania announced that it would stop allowing Russian goods sanctioned by the EU to transit through Lithuania.
The first wave of embargoed goods accounted for about 50% of the goods shipped to Kaliningrad from Russia, including production materials such as metals, coal, and building materials.
Data map: Lithuania said that the cargo sanctions on Kaliningrad Oblast, Russia came into effect.
Image source: Screenshot of Reuters report
Later, Lithuania extended the embargo from railways to highways, so that Kaliningrad could only obtain iron ore, coal and building materials from Russia by sea.
In the long run, it will definitely affect the local economic development.
On July 10, in order to cooperate with the fifth package of EU sanctions against Russia, Lithuania began to attack Russia's concrete, wood, alcohol and alcohol-containing industrial chemicals.
【revenge? Russia is more tricks]
Lithuania took advantage of its geographical advantage to "stuck in the neck", and Russia was so angry that Russia summoned the EU ambassador to Russia Edler early, demanding that the "illegal provocation" be stopped immediately and transportation be resumed, otherwise retaliatory measures will be taken.
The Lithuanian authorities denied that they violated the transit agreement between the two countries, and "threw the blame" to the EU, saying that they were only "acting as ordered" to implement EU sanctions.
Lithuanian President Nauseda once said that the country "will not budge".
Lithuanian President Nauseda.
However, not only analysts are not optimistic about Lithuania, but Russia itself does not think so.
One of the reasons is that this move will inevitably trigger a Russian response, such as further strengthening the military deployment in Kaliningrad Oblast, increasing strategic deterrence, and forming a flanking attack on Lithuania from both the mainland and Kaliningrad. The more embargoed, the more dangerous you are.
The second is tit-for-tat. For example, the Russian Chargé d’affaires in Lithuania Ribokon believes that if Brussels does not resolve the transit issue in Kaliningrad, Russia can consider reducing the transit of goods entering the EU through Russia by a “similar proportion”.
This necessarily involves Poland and Lithuania.
Data map: Russian special forces hold anti-terrorism exercises in Kaliningrad, Russia.
Image source: CFP Vision China
The third is to hit back with a "curve ball", you jam my goods, I can cut off your electricity.
Ribokon reminded Lithuania that the existence of power systems around Belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania makes Russia have a leveraged check and balance effect on Lithuania.
Although Lithuania and other countries have said they will no longer buy Russian electricity, when these countries want to ask for guaranteed power supply during power outages and peak load periods, they will know that "you shouldn't talk to us (Russia) like that".
[The pot thrown by Lithuania flew back]
Just as Lithuania was embargoing Russian wine, a big news came out.
According to foreign media reports, the European Union and Russia have reached an agreement on the transit of goods through Kaliningrad Oblast, and Brussels has provided a document that makes Moscow "completely satisfied".
"Totally satisfied" may be too much, because Moscow is not so satisfied with the response of the Russian President's Press Secretary Peskov.
Peskov said the issue of restricting the transit of goods to Kaliningrad was not over, and that the Kremlin was "looking forward to some progress" but "can't say that the issue has been resolved yet." He advised everyone to "be patient."
Russian President's Press Secretary Peskov.
Negotiations between Brussels and Vilnius on a final document related to the embargo against Russia have been ongoing for several weeks, the sources said.
The Financial Times reported that some European diplomats believe that when approving the sanctions, the European Commission did not actually intend to set up new major obstacles to the movement of goods between Russia and its enclaves, "just that the Commission did not clarify its rules".
And EU officials have privately criticized the extent and frequency of inspections of Russian trains by Lithuania, which they fear could lead to confrontation with Moscow.
According to these disclosed information, the EU stressed that it has no intention of "blocking Kaliningrad". In fact, it is due to political, economic, military and other considerations, and it does not want to completely tear its face with Russia, causing the conflict to spread to more parts of Europe.
This also shows that Lithuania's embargo against Russia is actually "holding chicken feathers as an arrow", and the "pot" it was about to throw was finally thrown back by the EU!
In addition, according to the statistics of Lithuanian media and the Linava Shippers Association, Lithuania's ban on Russia will make more than 200 transportation companies in the country go bankrupt.
The main reason is that these small and medium-sized transportation companies failed to reorient the transportation in time, or did not have enough funds to do so.
["Losing my wife and losing my army"]
On July 13, the European Commission's new guidelines for sanctions against Russia were finally made public.
The policy sees EU member states as tasked with monitoring Russia for sanctions evasion.
The EU has made it clear this time:
1. As long as the traffic volume does not exceed the average level of the past three years and reflects the "real demand for basic commodities at the destination", then trade sanctions do not apply to traffic between Russia and its enclaves.
2. Transit by road to Kaliningrad Oblast is still prohibited, and transit by rail is allowed, subject to the necessary inspections.
3. Sanctioned military and dual-use goods and technical products are still completely prohibited from transiting through Lithuania.
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Landsbergis.
For the long overdue "clear text explanation", Lithuania can only do so.
However, the Lithuanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs is still "hard-mouthed" in the statement, saying that the previous relevant regulations are "more acceptable" and that this time the policy will leave "an unreasonable impression" that the transatlantic community is softening its attitude towards Russia. Position and Sanctions Policy.
Different from the EU's scheming, in the end it was Lithuania who lost his wife and lost his army!
(Finish)