Ten questions and ten answers, understand the "semi-annual report" of China's economy!

Text/The country is the king

　　China's economic data for the first half of the year was released on the 15th.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's GDP in the first half of the year was 56,264.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%.

Among them, the economy grew by 0.4% year-on-year in the second quarter.

　　How is China's economic situation?

China State Express held the "China State Forum: Mid-2022 Economic Situation Analysis Meeting" for the first time, and interviewed a number of experts to interpret the top ten issues of concern to everyone.

What are the highlights of the semi-annual report?

　　In the first half of the year, China's economy withstood the pressure, stabilized and rebounded, showing five bright spots.

　　GDP achieved positive growth in the second quarter: China's GDP in the first half of the year was 56,264.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%.

Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics of China and director of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Department, said that the 0.4% increase in the second quarter was achieved against the background of the decline in major production demand indicators in April and May. It should be said that it is very difficult, reflecting the fact that The strong resilience of the Chinese economy.

　　Investment accelerated recovery: In the first half of the year, the national fixed asset investment was 27.143 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%.

Among them, the investment growth rate in April was 1.8%, accelerated to 4.6% in May, and further rebounded to 5.6% in June.

　　Strong rebound in imports and exports: In the first half of the year, the total value of China's imports and exports of goods trade reached 19802.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, of which the growth rate in June was as high as 14.3%, a further recovery from 9.5% in May.

In the context of the huge impact on the global economy and trade, the growth rate of China's import and export has increased instead of falling, which fully highlights the strong resilience of China's foreign trade.

　　Transformation and upgrading are accelerated: In the first half of the year, the added value of China's high-tech manufacturing industries above designated size increased by 9.6% year-on-year, and investment in high-tech industries increased by 20.2%, both maintaining rapid growth.

Retail sales of physical online goods increased by 5.6%.

The output of new energy vehicles and solar cells increased by 111.2% and 31.8% respectively.

　　Employment prices are generally stable: In the second quarter, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate averaged 5.8%.

Although inflationary pressures in major economies around the world are increasing, China's inflation rate remains low.

In the first half of the year, the national consumer price (CPI) increased by only 1.7% year-on-year, and the price increase in China was significantly lower than the increase of more than 8% in Europe and the United States.

What pressures did you withstand in the second quarter?

　　From the deep decline of major indicators in April, to the narrowing of the decline in May, to the stabilization and recovery in June, the Chinese economy finally achieved positive growth in the first half of the year.

In the process, the Chinese economy has withstood the pressure.

　　First, the impact of unexpected unexpected factors inside and outside.

From the Ukraine crisis to the repeated epidemics, major institutions have repeatedly lowered their forecasts for global economic growth.

The frequent spread of domestic epidemics also has an impact on the stable operation of the economy.

In the face of difficulties, China has intensified its macro policy adjustment, introduced a solid package of policy measures to stabilize the economy, stabilized the broader economic market, and pushed the economy to achieve positive growth in the second quarter.

　　The second is the pressure to stabilize prices.

Food prices, up!

Energy prices, up!

Since the beginning of this year, international bulk commodities have continued to be high, and the impact on domestic imported inflation is also increasing.

In the face of this situation, we continue to increase the market supply and price stabilization efforts.

In the first half of the year, China's consumer prices rose by 1.7% year-on-year, which was lower than the expected target of around 3% for the whole year, and also significantly lower than the increase of more than 8% in European and American countries.

　　The third is the pressure on people's livelihood such as employment.

Affected by the impact of the epidemic and other factors, employment pressure has risen sharply since the beginning of this year.

In response to this situation, all parties are continuing to increase efforts to stabilize employment and strengthen the guarantee of people's livelihood.

The effect is also emerging. In the first half of the year, 6.54 million new jobs were created in urban areas across the country. The surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas nationwide in June was 5.5%, which has dropped for two consecutive months.

In the first half of the year, the per capita disposable income of national residents actually increased by 3% year-on-year. Although it was down from the first quarter, it still outperformed the economic growth rate.

What is the potential growth rate of China's economy?

　　Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics of China and director of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Department, said that many institutions and scholars have made calculations on the potential growth rate of China's economy, and there are certain differences in the calculation results.

In general, most conclusions are that the potential growth rate of China's economy at this stage is about 5.5% to 6.5%.

　　Fu Linghui said that in the future, with the increase of China's economic size, the environmental constraints of labor resources will be strengthened, and the level of potential growth rate will gradually decrease.

However, from a global perspective, the potential growth rate of 5.5% to 6.5% is still at a medium and high level, especially under the conditions of such a large economy as China, it is very difficult to maintain a medium and high level of growth, which also shows the potential of China's economic growth. Still relatively large.

What are the policy focus points in the second half of the year?

　　Zhang Yansheng, the chief researcher of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, suggested at the China News Agency's "National Forum: 2022 Mid-Year Economic Situation Analysis Conference" on the 15th that the policies in the second half of the year should focus on three aspects: First, coordinate scientific epidemic prevention and comprehensive economic and social measures. Restoring and promoting the resumption of work; the second is to promote the full start of national infrastructure projects; the third is to implement precise policies and introduce more direct and targeted measures to stabilize consumption.

　　Su Jian, a professor at the School of Economics of Peking University and director of the National Economic Research Center of Peking University, told the China News Agency that the current focus is on coordinating epidemic prevention and control and macroeconomic growth goals.

In the second half of the year, in addition to the gradual implementation of the previously proposed policies, macroeconomic policies also need to be further strengthened.

In this process, efforts should be made to maintain the continuity of macro policies, which should be both powerful and reasonable.

This means that the current implementation of macroeconomic policies should not be too aggressive or too aggressive to prevent overdrafts in the future.

In particular, the scale of bond issuance should be controlled within a reasonable range.

What challenges will foreign trade face in the second half of the year?

　　In the first half of the year, China's foreign trade increased by 9.4% year-on-year, of which the total import and export volume and total export volume in June both hit a new monthly high.

　　Zhang Jianping, deputy director of the Academic Committee of the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, said on the 15th that China's foreign trade in the first half of the year achieved a 9.4% growth on the basis of last year's high base, which laid a solid foundation for stabilizing foreign trade in the second half of the year.

　　Talking about the challenges facing China's foreign trade in the second half of the year, Zhang Jianping believes that the current global energy crisis and food crisis will impact the global market to a large extent, and the US economy may fall into recession in 2023, which will bring extreme demand to the global market. large contractile effects.

The WTO also recently lowered its forecast for global trade growth from 4.8% to around 3%.

Therefore, foreign trade companies need to closely track market changes and make good use of dividends such as pilot free trade zones.

　　He said that although some of China's foreign trade orders are indeed transferred to Vietnam and India, the added value of "Made in Vietnam" is limited, and India is limited by problems such as weak infrastructure construction, low administrative efficiency, and poor business environment. Catching up with China will not be easy.

How can investment continue to develop?

　　In the first half of this year, China vigorously responded to the impact of unexpected factors, and the national economy stabilized and rebounded.

Among them, investment plays a prominent role under the policy force, forming a strong support for China's economy.

　　Data on the 15th showed that in the first half of the year, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 27.143 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%.

　　Bai Jingming, a researcher and former vice president of the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences, said that in the first half of the year, the growth rate of China's fixed asset investment exceeded that of GDP, which shows that when the economy was greatly affected by the impact and consumption growth slowed down, the growth rate of investment added Stimulate the vacancies in the economy.

　　The data disclosed on the same day also showed that in the first half of the year, infrastructure investment increased by 7.1% year-on-year, 0.4 percentage points faster than that from January to May.

　　Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, said that the growth rate of infrastructure investment continued to pick up, mainly for three reasons.

First, the construction progress is guaranteed due to the unblocked transportation and logistics policy; second, the issuance of special bonds is accelerated due to the guaranteed source of funds; third, the project is gradually implemented. Except for the 102 major projects in the "14th Five-Year Plan", a package of The economic stabilization policy has decided to start new construction, and a number of water conservancy projects, especially large-scale water diversion irrigation, transportation, renovation of old communities, and underground integrated pipe corridors, also form support for infrastructure.

　　Lian Ping, chief economist and dean of the Research Institute of Zhixin Investment, believes that in the second half of the year, investment in infrastructure and manufacturing will jointly promote fixed asset investment to continue to play a "steady growth" role.

Driven by favorable factors such as financial support and sufficient project reserves and policy support in place, infrastructure investment will maintain steady and rapid growth.

How to restart the consumption engine?

　　Data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics on the 15th showed that China's consumption increased by 3.1% in June, and the growth rate "turned from negative to positive".

As one of the "troikas" driving the economy, China's consumption is showing signs of recovery, but the motivation is still insufficient. How should China restart the consumption engine?

　　Zhang Jianping, deputy director of the Academic Committee of the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce of China, said that the current needs of Chinese residents for housing improvement, car trade-in needs, and the demand for digital home appliances and smart home appliances are increasing day by day, and the corresponding market supply should be increased to meet the demand. these needs.

The potential of tourism consumption is also great, and the quality and cost-effectiveness of entertainment, accommodation, catering and other links should be further improved.

To expand effective demand and grow steadily, we must make good use of e-commerce platforms, and we must combine online and offline development. While online consumption is booming, we must also pay attention to the pressure faced by offline brick-and-mortar stores.

　　Zhao Ping, vice president of the Research Institute of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, said that in the second half of the year, the expansion of consumption should focus more on the supply side to enhance the supply capacity of consumption, especially in terms of stabilizing the price and supply of basic daily necessities, and strengthening the implementation of policies to stabilize the basic market of consumption. .

The supply side must create a favorable market environment and create an open, transparent and predictable business environment.

Increase support for small, medium and micro enterprises that were severely hit by the epidemic in the early stage, protect market players, and enable small, medium and micro enterprises to better seize market opportunities.

Improve the quality and level of supply, encourage innovation and development of enterprises, create new consumption highlights through supply-side innovation, and inject more impetus into consumption growth.

Can China stabilize prices?

　　Guo Liyan, director of the Comprehensive Situation Research Office of the China Academy of Macroeconomics, said on the 15th that China has the confidence and ability to continue to stabilize prices.

"Even with the current high global inflation, looking ahead to the full year, China does not have the basis for a full-blown inflation."

　　First of all, China insists on scientifically grasping the strength, rhythm and priorities of policies, and insists on not engaging in strong incentives for flooding, which has a good support for stabilizing prices.

　　Secondly, China has done a lot of work in coordinating epidemic prevention and control, economic and social development, and responding to the impact. At present, the progress of resumption of production and production of industrial chains and supply chains in key regions is progressing steadily.

Since the outbreak of the epidemic, especially last year and this year, the overall relationship between domestic supply and demand has been relatively stable, and there has not been a similar mismatch between supply and demand in the international market, which is a prerequisite for stabilizing prices.

　　At present, consumption is in the process of accelerating recovery, and the consumption of basic consumer goods such as food has been relatively stable.

At the same time, consumption of consumer staples such as cars and home appliances is also recovering.

Recently, a series of measures to promote consumption have been introduced from the central to the local level, so contact consumption is expected to show a steady recovery in the second half of the year.

Has the real estate market recovered?

　　Ni Pengfei, director of the Urban and Competitiveness Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the downward pressure on the real estate market in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, but it still showed a certain degree of resilience. In May and June, the decline in a number of core data of the real estate market narrowed or stopped.

　　At present, the real estate market is changing from a negative cycle to a positive cycle, and the market is expected to recover in the second half of the year.

If there is no external unexpected shock, the real estate market may start to recover in the third quarter, and some indicators can turn positive in the fourth quarter.

From a spatial point of view, first- and second-tier cities are expected to take the lead in recovering.

　　This recovery process will be accompanied by a game of positive and negative forces.

Ni Pengfei pointed out that from the perspective of positive forces, in the second half of the year, with the recovery of the macro economy and the introduction of various supportive policies, the property market is expected to be more stable.

Moreover, the real estate market does have structural potential, especially in metropolitan areas, urban agglomerations, and some cities with relatively good economic development and large population inflow, there is indeed the potential to continue to release rigid and improved demand, and the commercial housing market is expected to remain 12%. Scale from 100 million to 1.5 billion square meters.

　　The negative forces mainly come from the risk spillover of real estate enterprises and external uncertainties.

The recent "loan suspension" turmoil is actually a manifestation of the risk spillover of housing enterprises.

Affected by this, the overall credit of the real estate industry has declined, affecting the normal financing of enterprises.

　　Pang Ming, chief economist and head of research at Jones Lang LaSalle Greater China, believes that with the improvement of the epidemic prevention and control situation, differentiated real estate control policies, especially housing credit policies, continue to be implemented, and individual housing companies’ debt default risks have been effectively dealt with Under the combined effect of factors such as stabilizing personal income expectations, rigid demand and continuous decline in the purchase cost of housing improvement groups, the real estate market is expected to achieve a soft landing in the second half of the year, market sentiment and expectations will recover, and the year-on-year growth in real estate investment is expected to turn positive.

How about the recovery in areas that have been greatly affected by the epidemic?

　　In the first half of the year, the economy of some regions was greatly affected by the impact of the epidemic.

　　Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics of China and director of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Department, said that the economic recovery of the regions that have been greatly affected by the epidemic has accelerated.

Although the economy of some regions was greatly affected by the epidemic in the second quarter, from a monthly perspective, with the overall improvement of epidemic prevention and control, the resumption of work and production of enterprises accelerated, and the main economic indicators in June improved significantly.

　　In June, the added value of industries above designated size in Shanghai and Jilin increased by 13.9% and 6.3% year-on-year, down 30.9% and 4.9% respectively in the previous month.

In terms of consumption, the retail sales of consumer goods of units above designated size in Jilin increased by 5.5% in June, after a decrease of 1.5% in the previous month.

In terms of employment, the surveyed urban unemployment rates in Shanghai and Jilin dropped by 9.7 and 0.8 percentage points respectively from the previous month, indicating that the economic recovery in these areas hit hard by the epidemic is accelerating steadily.

　　Fu Linghui said that in general, the economy of most regions in my country is generally stable, and the growth of the central and western regions is faster than that of the east. The trend of regional coordinated development has not changed. Some regions have encountered temporary difficulties due to the impact of the epidemic. Under the action, the recovery of economic operation has been accelerated.