The war in Ukraine has entered a new phase.

While the Russian troops are regrouping in the Donbass and entrenching themselves on the southern front, in the Cherson region, the country's defenders have selectively regained the initiative.

For days, Ukrainian artillery has been destroying dozens of Russian ammunition depots, command posts and weapons caches far behind the front lines.

Lorenz Hemicker

Editor in Politics

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Rocket launchers supplied from the United States play a major role in this.

With their help, Ukraine can target targets that its artillery has so far been unable to reach - and hit them so accurately that even the enemy's military bloggers are impressed.

After the week-long, costly defensive battle in Donbass, the jubilation on the part of Kiev is correspondingly large.

A single shot from the American “highly mobile artillery missile system” (M142 HIMARS for short) is enough to destroy an entire ammunition depot, Ukrainian military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko recently told Ukrainian television.

According to Kovalenko, the supply of weapons and troops to the Russian army would collapse by the end of July – a daring prognosis.

Still, given the tactical successes of the Ukrainians, the question arises as to whether the rocket launchers could turn the tide in the Ukrainian-Russian war in favor of the defenders.

Russia is powerless

What is certain is that the Russian armed forces have so far hardly had any means of defending themselves against the rocket launchers.

And this despite the fact that their delivery had been announced many weeks beforehand.

The Russian anti-aircraft defense, which is quite efficient, is largely powerless against the fast and low-flying projectiles.

In addition, the rocket launchers are difficult to spot.

The American models are mounted on trucks and the Ukrainians operate them under cover of darkness.

The launcher can reportedly be aimed at its target in seconds and fire its six 227mm rockets.

The crew of three can then change positions immediately.

Their damage potential is also obvious.

With the rocket launchers, the Ukrainian artillerymen have for the first time a system with which they can work deep into enemy space at a distance of up to 84 kilometers - thanks to precision-guided GMLRS rockets.

Theoretically, 300 kilometers would also be possible.

But the United States is holding back the ATACMS surface-to-surface missile to rule out attacks on Russian territory with the HIMARS.

Even without them, the Ukrainians can escape the Russian war of attrition with the launchers and build on their successful tactics from the first weeks of the war.

At that time, the Ukrainian troops attacked from ambushes, especially in the north of the country, severely disrupting the Russian supply routes.

The tasks of the infantry and the combat drones are now taken over by the rockets.

In conjunction with reconnaissance (supported by the West), high-ranking Russian military, logistics centers and ammunition depots are being targeted.

Even where the Russian air defense has so far thwarted attacks.

No silver bullet

"HIMARS has allowed Ukrainians to fight however they want," strategy researcher and former Australian Major General Mick Ryan tweeted on Tuesday.

And yet at the same time he warned against calling the rocket launchers a "wonder weapon".

There are a number of reasons for Ryan's skepticism, some of which he explained himself.

On the Russian side, the HIMARS should be at the top of the target list.

America's National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan announced on Monday evening that Iran apparently intends to supply "several hundred" drones for use in Ukraine;

Parts of them weaponized.

Iran denied that on Friday.

Another point is their mode of action.

Rocket launchers are useful for paralyzing advancing enemy troops.

So you can weaken it and also reduce the pressure on your own forces at the front, because the Russian side lacks ammunition, fuel and possibly also military leadership.

However, the rocket launchers are only suitable to a limited extent for supporting direct combat at the front.

Barrel weapons are much better suited for this.

Even more important is their small number.

With the most recent delivery announcement by the Americans, the Ukrainian army would have twelve HIMARS in the future.

Ukraine's presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said in June that Kyiv would need 300 rocket launchers alone to achieve "parity" on the battlefield.

Estimates by Western experts are lower.

Former Pentagon expert Michael G. Vickers spoke to the New York Times of 60 to 100 systems.

But even with comparable systems that go to the Ukraine from Great Britain (M270 MLRS) and Germany (Mars II), the total number of launchers is only a fraction of this.

In the case of barrel artillery, too, the more than a hundred Western systems meanwhile bring relief, but no parity.

This does not rule out the possibility that the Ukrainians could, with the help of many artillery pinpricks, so paralyze the Russian troops, especially in the Kherson region, that they would have to retreat.

All the more so since the Ukrainians skillfully dose their artillery and use it wisely.

But that shouldn't be enough to permanently push the Russians back from larger areas.