Chinese growth plunges in the second quarter of 2022
Workers at the port of Shanghai, January 13, 2022. © ALY SONG / REUTERS
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2 mins
According to figures released Friday, July 15 by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's GDP increased by 0.4% in the second quarter compared to last year, due in particular to drastic measures to combat the epidemic.
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With our correspondent in Beijing
,
Stéphane Lagarde
It's the glass half empty or the glass half full.
For the Chinese state media this Friday, July 15, the decline in growth compared to the 4.8% rate observed during the first three months of the year would be “
in line with market expectations
” writes the
Global Times
.
For the subsidiary newspaper of the People's
Daily
, this poor performance should be placed in the context
of "epidemics
[which have hit]
major cities and global uncertainties
".
The
repeated confinements of Chinese megalopolises,
in particular on the East Coast, where a majority of the factories of the former workshop of the world are still located, has disrupted the production chains.
And if Fu Linghui, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, insists on the “
stable recovery
” of the Chinese economy, he is forced to concede that the conditions for a sustainable recovery are not yet in place.
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Stagflation and gloom
Externally, the risks of stagflation in the world economy directly threaten exports.
Indoors, demand remains sluggish.
Activity is slowed by the “zero Covid” epidemic strategy, which is curbing household spending.
Not to mention the youth unemployment which continues to rise and the real estate crisis which inflates the debt of the provinces.
Pessimists note that China's growth rate is at its lowest since the decline in the first quarter of 2020. Optimists note that industrial production rose 3.9% in June, compared to 0.7% in May.
If China's GDP bottoms out in the second quarter, they say, the growth rate could reach 1.1% by the end of the year, to exceed the target 5.5% annual growth for 2022.
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