In the autumn, inflation made headlines when it reached over three percent.

The announcement from Statistics Sweden today, that consumer prices have risen by as much as 8.5 per cent in the past year, means that we have the highest inflation since the summer of 31 years ago.

Many families with children do not include a single member who was born when inflation was so high last time.

Many who take out their first mortgages now went - happily unknowingly hopefully - to kindergarten when the Riksbank raised the interest rate to 500 per cent and the mortgage fear took hold.

That the money does not go as far as before is thus a new situation, and nasty if you have incurred large expenses.

And that even the heaviest economic powers, such as finance ministers and central bank governors, have both contributed to it all, and are taken to bed is remarkable, or even bad:

First, they poured out support money into the economy during the corona pandemic.

It was understandable in the acute crisis in the spring of 2020, but then it just continued, with full focus on not repeating the mistakes from the financial crisis of 2008-2009 and withdrawing support too soon.

"Energy shortage became fuel for inflation"

Instead, they watched as shutdowns and shipping chaos increased the risk of inflation.

When energy prices rose and actually pushed up inflation, the central bank governors, not least the Swedish Riksbank, pointed out that energy prices usually go up and down and are therefore not something you need to worry about.

As recently as 10 February, the Riksbank said that inflation, which was then 3.9 per cent, would fall back during the year, that high energy prices would fall before they had time to spread to other goods.

All with maintained zero interest rates and continued support for the financial markets.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine two weeks later came as a tragic shock.

The sanctions led to a lack of energy and became additional fuel for the inflation fire.

Now food prices have risen by 11.2 percent in one year.

Electricity did not become cheaper at all as it usually does during the summer.

In June, it was almost 40 percent more expensive than a year ago.

Fuels, such as petrol and diesel, have become 54 percent more expensive compared to last summer.

Inflation appears to remain above 7 percent for the rest of the year.

"Is there hope if planned interest rate hikes bite"

The Riksbank finally began to raise interest rates in April, and today many economists fear that the Riksbank will need to take in more than was said in the autumn.

The latest offer from the Riksbank is a key interest rate of two per cent in six months, which means variable mortgage rates of 3.5 to 4 per cent.

All of this means that the household coffers are likely to become more and more strained during the autumn.

But worst for many is probably the uncertainty about where it will end.

There is some hope that the planned interest rate increases will bite on the part of inflation that has been driven by pandemic support.

Already now, for example, several important commodity prices are falling as a result of subdued economic activity.

But the part that is due to Russia's war in Ukraine is totally unpredictable.

It is about whether Putin will choke the gas to Europe this autumn, about who wants to buy Russian oil and about how Biden succeeds now that he is going to Saudi Arabia and begging for oil to replace the Russian on the world market.

It is clear that Putin, Biden and the world political scene will mean more to the household coffers than, for example, their own negotiations at the bank.