We see with great concern that in the political debate in Germany on Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, calls for an unspecified and immediate "political solution" or for a "ceasefire" at any price are repeatedly coming up.

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The desire for an early ceasefire and for a political solution is understandable, but as long as Russia wants to enforce the complete submission of Ukraine by force of arms, there is currently no scope for a serious diplomatic solution.

A fundamental threat to European security

Under no circumstances should the sovereignty and freedom of other peoples be the subject of Western negotiation offers.

The federal government should clarify its medium and long-term expectations and goals and better communicate what it is preparing for.

What is needed is a stringent, comprehensible strategy that is communicated to the public.

Russia's attack on Ukraine represents a turning point, the consequences of which are still not understood by many.

The situation triggered by the war in Russia represents a fundamental threat to European security. However, the failure of the Russian troops gives Western politicians opportunities to influence further developments that must not be wasted.

Revival of Greater Russian imperialism

In our assessment of the situation, we assume that Russia's war of aggression had been systematically planned and prepared for several years.

The Russian policy of aggression was triggered by the desire to consolidate the rule of a kleptocratic nomenclature.

But the western community of states is confronted with the resurgence of a Great-Russian imperialism aimed at the military subjugation of neighboring states and the destruction of western societies, democratic political systems and international institutions (NATO, EU).

Russia's actions represent the regulatory counter-proposal to the European Union, which is why what is happening in Ukraine is not simply a bilateral conflict for us, but is also about our free order and our security.

We believe the Russian incursion came at a time when the modernization of the Russian armed forces had reached a stage where the Kremlin considered major military action possible.

Russia's ultimatum to NATO and the US in December 2021 was a clear signal that a major military operation was imminent.

Russian errors and losses

However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine was anything but successful.

There were massive errors in operational planning, in the area of ​​logistics and in communication.

The Luftwaffe, equipped with the most modern aircraft, remained largely ineffective.

The nominally overwhelmingly large Russian Black Sea Fleet suffered numerous casualties, some of them humiliating, in addition to the loss of its flagship to anti-ship missiles.

Overall, the Ukrainians defended themselves much more effectively than predicted.

Most of the invading potential of Russian forces (two-thirds) lay in the approximately 120 battalion tactical groups that invaded Ukraine in February.

These troops have since been drastically depleted and have been partially replenished by reservists, whose combat effectiveness is far inferior to that of professional soldiers.

The shift in war aims in April signaled that efforts should be made with limited forces to bring about a decision in favor of the aggressor, at least in Donbass.