China News Service, July 13 (Reporter Meng Xiangjun) There is one thing that has attracted attention recently, that is, India will surpass China as early as 2023 and become the world's number one!

  In what respect should it be surpassed?

It turned out to be the population of India.

  At the same time, the situation of aging and declining birthrates in Japan and South Korea is further intensifying...

[The global population will exceed 8 billion: longer life, fewer births, slower growth]

  On July 11, 2022, the 33rd World Population Day, the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs released the "World Population Prospects 2022" report, predicting that the global population will reach 8 billion around November 15.

  The next law of global population growth is probably:

  ·In 2030, it will grow to about 8.5 billion

  ·In 2050, it will grow to about 9.7 billion

  ·In 2080, it will grow to about 10.4 billion and maintain it until about 2100

Overview of the World Population Prospects 2022 report.

Image source: United Nations website

  Foreign media reported that 10.4 billion will be a peak of the global population, and after the peak, the global population will decline.

  According to the report, it took about 12 years for the global population to grow from 7 billion to 8 billion, roughly the same time as the growth from 6 billion to 7 billion.

Meanwhile, the next billion-level growth is expected to take two and a half years longer, about 14.5 years, to be achieved by 2037.

  A notable trend is that the world population growth rate has fallen below 1%, the slowest rate since 1950, due to a number of factors.

  The average fertility rate of the world population has dropped from about 5 births per woman in 1950 to 2.3 births in 2021.

The global average fertility rate is projected to fall further to 2.1 births by the middle of the century.

  Fertility rates in some advanced economies are worrying.

The United Nations believes that every woman has an average of 2.1 births in her lifetime to achieve the "standard population replacement rate" to ensure a flat population. However, the fertility rate in many developed countries has dropped below the "standard population replacement rate".

By 2050, the global population of 61 countries will decrease by 1%.

Data map: On the streets of South Korea, crowds are crossing the road.

  South Korea is a prominent representative. Statistics show that the total fertility rate in South Korea has been lower than 1 for three consecutive years. In 2020, the total fertility rate was only 0.84, the world's lowest. .

But the death toll hit a record high of 305,100.

This represents the first net decline in South Korea's population since 1970.

  Statistics Korea estimated in 2021 that the population of South Korea will decrease by an average of about 60,000 a year in the next 10 years.

  On the issue of life expectancy, due to lower mortality, the global average life expectancy reached 72.8 years in 2019, an increase of 9 years from 1990.

However, in 2021, global life expectancy once fell to 71 years, mainly due to the impact of the new crown epidemic.

  It is predicted that by 2050, the average life expectancy of the global population will increase to 77.2 years.

In other words, humans will live longer, 4 years and 4 months longer than they are now.

That's obviously a pretty impressive number.

Data map: Tokyo, Japan, elderly people lift wooden dumbbells to exercise.

  On the issue of aging, the report said that the proportion of the global population aged 65 and over is expected to rise from 10% in 2022 to 16% in 2050.

By then, the number of people aged 65 and over is expected to be more than double the number of children under five.

  Aging has become a prominent problem faced by many countries.

In European countries represented by France, Germany, and Italy, the proportion of the population aged 60 and above exceeds 25%.

  Japan is the first country in the world to officially enter an aging society. It is estimated that the proportion of the elderly population in the country will reach 35.3% in 2040.

Not only that, the country's low birthrate problem is also prominent. The population between the ages of 15 and 64 has dropped by more than 580,000 in one year. The shortage of suitable-age labor will have an increasingly serious impact on its economic development.

[India's population is about to surpass China's: there are hidden worries behind the growth]

  As the world's population grows from 7 billion to 8 billion, half of the population growth is in Asia, followed by Africa.

Of the 1 billion added, India was the largest contributor, followed by China and Nigeria.

  While net birthrate declines have been observed in developing countries, the report says at least 50% of world population growth over the next few decades is likely to be concentrated in these eight countries: India, Pakistan, Philippines, Egypt, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Tanzania , obviously, are developing countries.

  Overall, 46 least developed countries are expected to be the fastest growing countries in the world, with many of them expected to double between 2022 and 2050.

In the "Ten Key Messages" of the UN report, it is mentioned that India is expected to surpass China to become the world's most populous country in 2023.

Image source: United Nations website

  As the world's second most populous country, India's performance is remarkable.

The population of India in 2022 will be 1.412 billion; according to the seventh national census, as of 00:00 on the 11th, 2020, the total population of China is about 1.443 billion.

  The report predicts that by 2023, India will surpass China to become the most populous country in the world.

Not only that, India is expected to maintain its status as the world's most populous country in the next few decades. By 2050, the population of this South Asian country may reach 1.668 billion.

  Nonetheless, India's demographics remain problematic.

First, look at the key data in the UN report - the total fertility rate. In 2021, India's total fertility rate will fall to 2.03, below the "standard population replacement rate" level of 2.1, showing a weakening of population growth momentum.

In the 1950s, Indian women had an average of 5 to 6 children.

  In addition, Bloomberg reported that the overall labor force participation rate in India fell from 46% to 40% between 2017 and 2022, and millions of Indians, especially women, were withdrawn from the labor force because they could not find suitable jobs.

Data map: Indians wait in line to be vaccinated against the new crown.

  According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), as many as 21 million people have been lost from the country's labor market, and more than half of the 900 million people of legal working age do not want to work or are unable to work normally.

These non-working people are said to be roughly the population of the United States and Russia combined.

  This huge data means that India may not be able to take full advantage of the dividends of the young population.

  According to reports, competition for jobs in India is fierce, especially stable jobs such as government civil servants, which generally attract millions of applicants.

The McKinsey Global Institute 2020 report states that to keep pace with the surge in young people, India needs to create at least 90 million new jobs by 2030, which will require economic growth of 8% to 8.5% per year.

  Societe Generale economist Kundu pointed out that India is likely to remain in the "middle-income trap", and economic inequality is becoming more and more obvious.

The Modi government has made strides in liberalizing the economy, but the country's full demographic potential must be fully exploited by creating more quality jobs for young people and implementing breakthrough changes on gender equality issues.

["8 billion people, 8 billion opportunities" Musk also called for this]

  On World Population Day, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a speech: "The global population reaching 8 billion is a digital milestone, and we must always focus on people." "In the world we strive to build, 80 100 million people means 8 billion opportunities to live dignified, fulfilling lives.”

UN Secretary-General Guterres.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Liao Pan

  In his view, humanity should "celebrate our diversity, acknowledge our shared humanity, and marvel at the advances in health that have increased life expectancy and dramatically reduced maternal and child mortality."

  However, he pointed out that there are still serious inequalities in the world today, such as women's rights, basic health services are under attack, and maternal complications are still the leading cause of death for girls aged 15 to 19.

Add to this the COVID-19 pandemic, the climate crisis, wars and conflicts, humanitarian emergencies, hunger and poverty, and more, and humanity needs to work together to protect human rights.

  Guterres expects that all countries in the world will make a joint commitment to fully implement the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and build a "sustainable and inclusive future for the world's 8 billion people, leaving no one behind".

American billionaire Elon Musk.

  Interestingly, Musk, an American billionaire with a large number of children, once called on people to "have more babies".

"The problem with humanity has never been too many people, but not more people being born," he said.

  Looking at historical data, Musk believes, "civilization will collapse" if humans don't have more descendants.

(Finish)