Heat wave: the peak expected on Monday according to Météo-France

Europe 1 with AFP 6:13 p.m., July 13, 2022

The peak of the current heat wave should be reached next Monday with peaks expected between 40°C and 42°C in certain regions, particularly in the particularly affected south-west, Météo-France said on Wednesday.

Seven departments remain on heat wave orange vigilance (five in the south-west, Ardèche and Drôme) and three new departments (Alpes-de-Haute-Provence, Haute-Loire and Pyrénées-Orientales) have been placed on yellow vigilance, bringing the total number of departments to this first threshold to 27, according to the update Wednesday at 4:00 p.m. of the vigilance map of Météo-France.

A heatwave equivalent to 2003

“Monday should be the hottest day,” said Matthieu Chevallier, head of duty for forecasting at Météo-France, during a press briefing.

That day, like Sunday, temperatures "over 40°C are possible" in the most affected regions, especially the South-West and lower Rhône valley.

The intensity of this second heat wave to hit the country in a month is already estimated to be "equivalent" to the deadly heat wave of August 2003, noted Matthieu Sorel, climatologist at Météo-France, even if its "severity", a criterion which combines intensity and duration, will be "lower", since its duration is currently expected between 8 and 10 days, compared to two weeks in 2003.

"The end of the episode is not yet predictable"

Some regions are expected to record temperatures at their peak "from 40 to 42 degrees", he further indicated.

Some will also have no respite, and the Toulouse region, for example, could experience "seven to ten consecutive days at more than 35°C".

“The end of the episode is not yet predictable”, underlined Claire Chanal, forecaster at Météo-France, stressing that after the peak expected at the very beginning of the week “there will be a drop in temperatures, but not drastically. , a few degrees from Wednesday or Thursday".

Monday could also approach, or even equal, the record for the hottest day on average in the country since the start of measurements.

Record which is currently 29.4°C on July 25, 2019 (ex-aequo with August 5, 2003).

The record for the hottest night, with an average of 21.4°C, dates back to the night of July 24 to 25, 2019. Until then, the north of the country in particular should benefit from a respite with a cooling of the temperatures, and Friday will be the coldest day of this second heat wave.

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Consequences over time

These episodes and their intensity are increasing under the effects of global warming.

According to studies, the number of heat wave days in mainland France should be multiplied by 2 in a scenario of a sharp global drop in greenhouse gas emissions, by 3 in a scenario of a moderate drop and be multiplied between 5 and 10 times in a scenario of strong emissions, underlined Matthieu Sorel.