The Bundestag and Bundesrat approved the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO last week, and Canada and Estonia have already ratified.

Nevertheless, the two Nordic countries still have a long way to go before ratification is completed in all 30 member states.

Nicholas buses

Responsible editor for foreign policy.

  • Follow I follow

The Turkish President leaves no doubt that the governments in Stockholm and Helsinki must first meet his various demands, which relate primarily to the Kurdish question.

Also, he still wants F-16 fighter jets from America.

The Biden administration supports it, but there is opposition in Congress.

So the matter is not settled yet.

However, Erdogan's objection is not of a fundamental nature.

He wants to use the situation to gain advantages for Turkey in areas that have nothing to do with NATO's northern expansion.

Therefore, all players, from Washington to Moscow, will realistically expect Sweden and Finland to be part of the alliance sooner or later.

This will have significant consequences for the strategic situation in Northern Europe – in favor of the West and to the detriment of Russia.

Significant strategic consequences in favor of the West

It starts with the fact that the two new allies will strengthen NATO militarily.

In the past rounds of enlargement, mainly smaller states in central-eastern and south-eastern Europe have joined, most recently Montenegro and North Macedonia.

This was a geopolitical gain for NATO, because it removed these countries from Russian influence.

But as a rule, they sought more security than they can provide themselves.

Sweden and Finland, on the other hand, have modern and well-equipped armed forces.

Conscription applies in both countries, and they have an efficient armaments industry.

As a result of their longstanding neutrality, they have never lost sight of national defense as much as Germany or other Western countries.

The Finnish artillery, for example, is one of the largest in Europe.

The Donbass is showing just how important these weapons can be.

From a strategic point of view, with the accession of the two countries, NATO will above all gain in defense capability in an area that its military planners have seen for years as a possible arena for a conflict with Russia.

The Baltic states, once part of the Soviet Union, are considered difficult to defend because they have no hinterland and are only connected to the rest of the alliance area by a narrow strip of land between Poland and Lithuania (so-called Suwalki Gap).

The Baltic Sea becomes a NATO sea

When Finland and Sweden are in NATO, additional air and sea supply lines are created that are shorter than those from Poland or Germany.

The Alliance will also become the dominant naval force in the region once and for all.

With the exception of Russia, all the countries bordering on it will belong to the alliance, and the Baltic Sea will effectively become a NATO sea.

An important role is played by the Swedish island of Gotland, from which the sea areas off the Baltic Sea in particular can be controlled.

Former NATO general Heinrich Brauss calls it an "unsinkable aircraft carrier" so that Sweden, along with the Finnish and German navies, could be used against Russia's Baltic Fleet based in Kaliningrad.

Finland's accession extends NATO's land border with Russia by 1,340 kilometers.

This should also increase deterrence, since it significantly expands Russia's potential front line in the event of an attack on Alliance territory.

The red line drawn by the Putin Alliance will soon stretch across Europe, from the North Cape to the Black Sea.

In addition, in the event of war, NATO gains additional opportunities on the northern flank.

The Russian military installations on the Kola Peninsula are linked to the rest of Russia by a long land line that can be jammed from Finland.

The Russian Northern Fleet, with its headquarters in Severomorsk, is stationed on the peninsula on the Barents Sea.

Among other things, a large part of the country's strategic nuclear submarines are located here.

Greater weight at the Arctic

The membership of Sweden and Finland will also increase NATO's weight in the Arctic.

Both states are members of the Arctic Council, in which eight neighboring states, including Russia, exchange ideas.

The importance of the area is steadily increasing with climate change.

The northern passages, which offer shorter sea routes from Asia to Europe and America, are already better navigable.

The melting of the polar ice will also improve access to arctic raw materials.

Putin recently said he had "no problems" with the two countries joining NATO.

Nevertheless, he has promised military countermeasures if the Alliance deploys troops or infrastructure there.

As a possible reaction, Moscow had already mentioned the stationing of nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad, which according to Western estimates have long been stationed there.

NATO said it has no intention of sending troops to either country.

"They have excellent national forces, they can defend themselves," Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoana said.