China News Service, Beijing, July 10 (Reporter Meng Xiangjun) Since the start of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia have reached more than 10,000.

What impact will the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, sanctions and counter-sanctions between Russia and the West have on the process of globalization and global trade and energy patterns?

Recently, Shao Yu, chief economist of Orient Securities, gave his own analysis in China News Agency's "East-West Question·China Dialogue".

　　Shao Yu pointed out that after the Western sanctions freeze Russia's foreign exchange reserves, Russia's response is to export energy.

Shao Yu pointed out that Russia does not accept other currencies for oil and energy trade. As long as it uses Russian oil and gas and energy, it must buy the ruble. Since the demand for the ruble is growing, it will appreciate strongly.

　　At least at this stage, he believes that the strengthening of the ruble has enabled Russia to establish a certain effect of resisting the financial sanctions of Europe and the United States, especially the United States.

That is to say, Russia maintains the sovereignty of its own currency with essential oil demand.

Russia's important role in the (global) supply chain may now seem irreplaceable.

　　But globally, energy prices are currently very high, whether in rubles or dollars.

The state of the supply chain is very chaotic right now, and the chaos is likely to continue for some time.

Geopolitical conflicts, including high oil prices, may pull the world into a big "stagflation trap" and have a huge impact on the global energy transition.

　　Shao Yu further analyzed that one of the logics of energy transformation is to keep traditional energy at a high (price) position, and everyone will shift to new energy.

This transformation may bring some mid- to long-term or even revolutionary changes to the global pattern, including the demand for fossil energy and traditional energy.

　　On the other hand, for globalization itself, Shao Yu said that he has been researching this aspect.

He said, "We are used to calling the past globalization version 3.0." Three types of countries constitute the complete structure of the globalization cycle.

　　The first category is energy or resource-based countries such as Russia and Ukraine; the second category is called production economies, and the current account surplus of these countries exceeds GDP by more than 4%; the last category of consumption-oriented countries, such as southern European countries and the United States, current account deficits accounting for more than 4% of GDP.

　　Now, whether it is geographic conflicts or competition among some countries, the globalization structure has been fractured.

The world may enter into a process in which geographical competition is more intense, and alliances of different countries form competitive blocs, which is a bit like a downturn between World War I and World War II.

　　He predicts that such a state may last for 10 years or even longer, so whether it is the transformation of resource-based countries, the improvement of production-oriented countries' capabilities, or the restriction of consumption-oriented countries' indiscriminate currency issuance, new areas of cooperation must be found to achieve a new balance, but this balance is more difficult to achieve.

　　So, be prepared to deal with the various risks and uncertainties that may arise.

For example, the weaponization of the U.S. dollar or a more intense form of technological competition may become a problem that countries must face.

(Finish)