China News Service, July 10 (Reporter Meng Xiangjun) As the body of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was transported to his Tokyo home, Japanese society seems to have just realized a fact that has caused a huge impact, that is, the most influential modern Japanese One of its leaders was shot dead at close range in broad daylight and under guard.
The problems exposed by this assassination incident have gone far beyond the meaning of the incident itself.
As a two-term prime minister and a senior politician who has been in office for more than 2,800 days, Abe has left a deep imprint on the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan with his own political ideas.
His assassination and the "legacy" he left will change Japan and the world in many ways.
Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was giving a street speech before he was shot.
Image source: Visual China
[Change 1: Affect the election and speed up the "constitutional revision"? 】
Abe was shot and killed during a public speech.
In the past few days, he has traveled all over Japan, standing in the crowd and speaking with a microphone, with only one purpose - to canvass for the Liberal Democratic Party candidate for the Senate election, which will be counted on the 10th.
As a popular "orator" of the Liberal Democratic Party, Abe mainly publicizes his achievements as prime minister.
The key point is to call for the realization of the "long-cherished wish" of amending the Constitution.
Just two days before the assassination, Abe emphasized in his speech in Yokohama that "I want to write the Self-Defense Forces in the "Constitution" and put an end to the unconstitutional debate."
Lu Yaodong, a researcher at the Institute of Japanese Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, noticed that the Japanese Senate election was about to be held, and Abe was assassinated in the context of canvassing for the election.
On the afternoon of July 9, local time, a hearse carrying the body of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe arrived at his residence in Tokyo.
Lu Yaodong told a reporter from Chinanews.com that Abe believes that this election is of great significance. Currently, the four political parties that have a more positive attitude towards "revision of the constitution", the Liberal Democratic Party, the Komeito Party, the Japan Restoration Association, and the National Democratic Party have accounted for more than 2/3 of the House of Representatives. Therefore, as long as the Senate follows the same pattern and achieves more than 2/3 of the "constitutional revision" forces in the entire Congress, the "constitutional revision" can be promoted.
Lu Yaodong pointed out that Abe has always regarded "revision of the constitution" as his main political mission and governance philosophy.
As early as 2007, when Abe became prime minister for the first time, he had proposed a timetable for "revision of the constitution", and the Senate also passed a referendum law that stipulates the procedure for "revision of the constitution".
In 2012, Abe visited the prime minister for the second time and pushed the matter again, but until he resigned nearly eight years later, the "constitutional amendment" was not written.
Wang Xinsheng, a professor of history at Peking University, analyzed that the assassination of Abe had a great impact on Japan's political situation.
From the perspective of Japanese politics and culture, the Liberal Democratic Party may get some "sympathy votes" and it is likely to win the Senate election.
This will have a positive effect on the governance of Fumio Kishida's regime.
The pace of "constitutional revision" by the Japanese parliament will therefore be accelerated.
Data map: On May 3, 2017, Japanese people held a rally and march in Tokyo, calling for the maintenance of the pacifist constitution and against the authorities' attempt to amend the constitution.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Wang Jian
Kishida once said that the Liberal Democratic Party and its co-governing Komeito target to win more than half of the 55 seats, but analysts believe that, affected by the Abe assassination, the Liberal Democratic Party is likely to win nearly 70 seats alone and win an overwhelming victory.
According to Kyodo News, as the prime minister of Japan and the president of the Liberal Democratic Party, Kishida hopes that after winning the election, he will write in Article 9 of the "Peace Constitution" into the discussion of the four items of the "Constitutional Amendment" draft including the Self-Defense Forces.
However, Kishida also admitted that the "constitutional revision" must be jointly promoted with the discussion of the Diet and the understanding of the people as "two wheels". That is to say, in addition to the approval by the Diet, more than half of the Japanese people must vote to approve the "constitutional amendment" before this can be considered true. Pass the level, or you will still be in a "lame" state.
According to the Asahi Shimbun's 2021 survey, 45% of the Japanese people surveyed support the "constitutional revision", an increase of 2% over the previous year.
Will Japan's public opinion change again in the future and cross the 50% red line of supporting "constitutional revision"?
This possibility cannot be ruled out.
[Change 2: Political earthquake, faction "shuffle"? 】
Corresponding to Abe's efforts to win the Senate election is the growing power of conservatives in Japan's Liberal Democratic Party.
Lv Yaodong pointed out that as the chairman of the "Abe faction" (the former "Hosoda faction"), the largest faction in the Liberal Democratic Party, Abe has already formed a great influence on the Liberal Democratic Party and the entire Japanese political scene no matter what the situation is.
He pointed out that Abe has three distinct labels. First, Abe was born in a political family, and his grandfather Kishi Nobusuke was a typical right-wing and conservative politician.
In 1960, Kishi would rather risk his resignation and pass the "Japan-U.S. Security Treaty", thus establishing Japan's next diplomatic foundation - the Japan-U.S. alliance.
Abe accepted Kishi's political position, not only a staunch "constitutionalist", but also a historical revisionist.
Such as denying the issue of comfort women, questioning the "Tokyo Trial", and the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology passing a textbook denying historical aggression during his tenure, all of which are manifestations of historical revisionism.
The second label is "Abenomics".
Japan has been stagnant for a long time, and Abe proposed "Abenomics" during his term of office. Although he did not fundamentally change the status quo of Japan's economic development, it still played a role.
The third label is that Abe is the longest-serving Japanese prime minister since the implementation of the cabinet system.
Because of this, Abe can project all the above concepts into the governance process and influence the direction of Japan's national policy for a long time.
Wang Xinsheng also believes that during his long-term administration, Abe led Japan to form a typical feature of "the prime minister's official residence casting decision-making process". During this period, many politicians who could compete with Abe happened to not threaten him, which led to Abe to complete some What senior politicians failed to accomplish.
On August 3, 2017 local time, in Tokyo, Japan, then Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the new cabinet members made a collective appearance.
Therefore, it is more necessary to see Abe's long-term influence on Japanese politics and the setting of the ruling direction of the Liberal Democratic Party in the past ruling process, Lu Yaodong pointed out.
After Abe's assassination, Japan's right-wing conservative forces are likely to take the opportunity to accelerate the promotion of Japan and continue to implement and carry forward the ideas of Abe during his lifetime.
As for who will be Abe's successor, Lu Yaodong analyzed that there are many people who share the same political ideals as Abe.
But the most important thing at the moment is to complete the Senate election, and the Liberal Democratic Party should wait until after the election to select a successor among the "Abe faction".
He believes that who can succeed Abe as the president of the "Abe faction" and the "Qinghekai" depends on two points: first, this candidate should be widely recognized; second, he should have enough qualifications to succeed Abe.
It is difficult to say whether there is a clear shortlist or timetable.
On the other hand, the current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida set up a special countermeasures room after Abe's assassination, declared condemning the assassination, and publicly stated that he "will truly inherit Abe's ideas", which shows that the general direction of the Japanese government's governance will not change greatly and will not affect Japan. Overall "conservative" trend.
However, although both belong to the Liberal Democratic Party, Kishida and Abe have different governance concepts and were once subject to Abe. How to deal with the relationship between their faction "Hongchihui" and "Qinghehui"? Will the "Hongchihui" take advantage of the situation to grow, and the group has no leader? Will the Qinghehui move towards infighting and division?
What is certain is that now is a window period for the faction to "shuffle the cards".
[Change 3: Impact on society, crisis of trust? 】
The British "Financial Times" commented that Abe was shot and killed, shaking Japan, a society where violence is rare and only a few people own guns.
Bloomberg noted that Japan is a country known for its security, and such violence "will have an impact on Japan that goes far beyond the (Senate election) vote."
The background of the shooting suspects, the guns used, the motives for the killing, and the security situation at the scene have all sparked heated debates on Japanese social networks.
The arrested suspect Toru Yamagami also confessed that he wanted to attack a "cadre of a religious group", but he was unable to do so, so he decided to attack former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
Previously, the media believed that he used a shotgun to fire at Abe, but later revised it to be a pistol.
One of the reasons for changing the information is that the gun is a so-called "ghost gun", which was handcrafted by the suspect.
Japanese media believe that the gun used by the suspect is different from traditional guns. It belongs to 3D printing material, and is wrapped with tape, disguised in appearance, and evaded security inspection.
The suspect shot the homemade gun used by Abe.
Image source: Screenshot of the Japan Broadcasting Association report
Because of strict gun control, Japan, with a population of 125 million, has one of the lowest gun crime rates in the world, although it does not strictly prohibit guns.
According to statistics, the number of people killed by guns in Japan every year rarely exceeds 10. In 2021, only 1 person will be killed by guns in Japan.
According to reports, in Japan, if an individual wants to buy or own a gun, he must undergo a mental health, drug and criminal record check, undergo training and take a written test, and then pass a shooting range live-fire test with a minimum accuracy rate of 95%.
Even if a gun is obtained, the location where firearms and ammunition are kept must be notified to the police and locked and stored separately.
Gun owners must also retrain and pass exams every three years to renew their licenses.
In addition, after the shooting death of Ito Ito, the mayor of Nagasaki, Japan in 2007, Japan further strengthened gun control and revised the law, stipulating that illegal possession of guns or illegal possession of multiple guns can lead to a maximum sentence of 15 years in prison; shooting in public places , with a maximum sentence of life imprisonment.
Therefore, the rate of gun crime in Japanese society has been very low for a long time. Analysis believes that this has led to a general lack of awareness of shooting incidents and low vigilance among the people in the country.
Japanese police arrest the suspect who shot and killed former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
Image source: Visual China
In addition, this time Abe was shot at close range by the suspect in broad daylight, which made the Japanese people even more frightened.
At the time of the incident, Abe was not only surrounded by politicians, but also dozens of ordinary citizens who listened to his speech. As many as 22 people were in charge of the security work, including 7 special police officers, but the security was useless.
All kinds of strong contrasts have had an emotional impact on Japanese society, with various emotions such as sadness, anger, and worry intertwined.
Hot posts on Japanese social media are on the screen. The mainstream voices are condemning violence, calling for law and order, and supporting Abe; Japanese scholars believe that this crime is like the tip of the iceberg, reflecting the "huge iceberg hidden under the water" in Japanese society, showing that Extreme distrust of politics, politicians.
Wang Xinsheng analyzed that Abe's assassination this time has a higher possibility of personal sexual behavior.
Although Japanese public opinion said that Abe's assassination was a "violence against democracy", it was a bit too much. In fact, I am afraid that some disadvantaged groups did not express their personal demands.
He further pointed out that Japan has encountered problems in reform and economic development over the years, and individual encounters are different, and there may be grievances.
The suspect's choice to use violent means to express his demands reflects social tension, but it may be an isolated case.
In short, the assassination of a prime minister-level figure will indeed have a great impact on Japan.
[Change 4: Leave a "legacy", both sides of the coin]
As a senior politician who controls the general direction of Japan's foreign policy, Abe died unexpectedly, and the international community expressed condemnation and condolences.
Russian President Vladimir Putin described Abe as "a great contribution to the development of good-neighborly and friendly relations between Russia and Japan"; South Korean President Yoon Seok-hye expressed his condolences, calling the shooting a "criminal act that cannot be tolerated"; Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that in order to express his relationship with Japan "Together", a day of national mourning in India on July 9.
Data map: Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
US President Biden, Australian Prime Minister Albanese, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and dignitaries from the three countries issued a joint statement to mourn Abe.
Former US President Trump, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, former Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and other "previous generation" politicians who coexisted with Abe also expressed support.
It can be said that Abe's departure has aroused widespread mourning regardless of neighboring countries or the Western world. This has become a rare "diplomatic legacy" he left for Japan, which is conducive to the Kishida government's "condolence diplomacy".
However, some analysts believe that the West, especially the United States, has lost a key figure in shuttle diplomacy and will lose some support for its Indo-Pacific strategy.
Lyu Yaodong pointed out that during Abe's first term as prime minister, he put forward the concept of "strategic Asian diplomacy" and other diplomatic ideas, and at one time, he governed with the idea of improving relations with neighboring countries.
But the first term came to an abrupt end.
In his second term, Abe's goals were very clear from the very beginning. He issued a national security strategy and promoted the lifting of the ban on the right to collective self-defense. In fact, Article 9 of the pacifist constitution was overridden, and he began offering sacrifices to the Yasukuni Shrine.
Under the guidance of the idea of "Overlooking the Globe Diplomacy" and its version 2.0, Abe set a record in Japan's post-war diplomacy during his tenure in office, such as the number of visits and the most countries and regions he visited.
According to another analysis, Abe’s diplomacy not only focuses on the goals of neighboring countries’ diplomacy and economic diplomacy with a pragmatic attitude, but also cooperates with the United States and the West to build a global strategy. Incorporated into diplomatic practice.
Data map: On June 7, 2018 local time, then-US President Trump met with Shinzo Abe at the White House, and the two attended a joint press conference.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Diao Haiyang
However, Abe's attempts to mend relations with neighboring countries such as Russia, South Korea and North Korea have not achieved much.
In diplomatic practice, Kyodo News pointed out that the main focus of Abe's term is to strengthen the Japan-US alliance.
He accelerated the integrated use of the U.S. military and the Japanese Self-Defense Forces by introducing a new security law, and built a "honeymoon" relationship with Trump. After his assassination, the American conservatives represented by Trump felt sorry.
After Trump withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Abe took over the "mess" and made every effort to facilitate the signing of the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP); after Biden took office, Abe cooperated again According to Kyodo News, the United States, India, and Australia have jointly mourned Abe because the United States, Japan, Australia and India "Quad" (Quad) is based on the concept proposed by Abe. of.
Abe's foreign policy is like two sides of a coin, affecting the world in two opposite directions.
Lu Yaodong believes that in the eyes of Japanese conservatives, Abe's approach is recognized and can be said to be successful.
However, the negative effect of this is that East Asia and its neighboring countries have begun to be wary of Japan's attempt to become a political and military power. Many countries questioned whether Japan will cause the neighboring countries to cause the same aggression in the past in the process of trying to become a "normal country". damage as in wartime.
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