Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, international food prices have soared, and some countries that rely heavily on food imports have experienced famine; while in Ukraine, food has piled up like mountains, and farmers are worried about the obstruction of food exports.
This distressing and bizarre situation should not continue, and the international community needs to work together to resolve it as soon as possible to prevent the food crisis from spreading further.
Tens of millions of tons of grain are difficult to transport
Known as the "granary of Europe", Ukraine is the third largest grain exporter in the world.
Before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Ukraine supplied more than 45 million tons of grain to the global market each year, of which about 90% of the grain exports were shipped by ship.
Ukraine's Ministry of Agricultural Policy and Food said that after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, due to the blockade of ports such as the Black Sea, grain shipping was stagnant and exports plummeted.
Ukrainian grain exports are usually 6 million tons per month, while grain exports in March 2022 are only 322,000 tons, April 970,000 tons, May 1.2 million tons, and June only 1.41 million tons.
Alternative means of rail and river transport cannot make up for the loss of exports caused by the stagnation of maritime transport.
According to the National Statistical Service of Ukraine, as of January 1, 2022, the country's total grain storage capacity is 75 million tons.
In April this year, the artillery fire of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict hit six important granaries in Ukraine. Affected by this, the actual available storage capacity is only 60.9 million tons.
Ukraine is expected to harvest up to 60 million tonnes of grains this season.
Due to the blockage of exports, Ukraine still has 18 million tons of grains and oilseeds harvested last year waiting to be exported, occupying 30% of the granary capacity and unable to make available storage space for the newly harvested grain, which means that the newly harvested grain is very large Part of it will be "nowhere to be placed".
If the port blockade problem is not resolved, by autumn, the grain stuck in the port may increase to 70 million to 75 million tons.
Currently, Ukrainian farmers are busy with the summer harvest.
Because the grain depot is full and a large amount of agricultural products are backlogged, they are exposed to the sun and rain. If they cannot be transported in time, farmers will suffer huge losses.
If the problems of storage space and transportation channels cannot be solved in time, coupled with the soaring prices of seeds, plant protection products, fertilizers, and fuels, in the following quarters, farmers may find that the crops in the fields are unprofitable and not worth harvesting. It will be unknown whether autumn grain sowing can be carried out.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has left about 2.4 million hectares of crops in Ukraine unharvestable, worth an estimated $1.435 billion, according to data released by the Ukrainian Ministry of Agricultural Policy and Food on June 15.
According to the forecast of the Ukrainian Institute of Agricultural Economics, Ukraine's wheat production in 2022 is expected to be 20 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 37.5%; corn production is expected to be 30 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 23%; sunflower production is 10.5 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 36%.
Hundreds of millions of people around the world suffer from hunger
According to the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization, Ukraine and Russia export 30 percent of the world's grains and 67 percent of sunflower oil.
Ukraine's exports of wheat, corn and sunflower oil account for 12%, 15% and 50% of the global market, respectively, providing food for 400 million people worldwide.
In 2021, among the 55 countries experiencing food crisis, 36 countries will import more than 10% of their total wheat imports from Ukraine and Russia, and some countries even import almost all of their wheat imports from Ukraine and Russia.
According to the United Nations World Food Program, more than 50 percent of food in 36 countries is imported through Ukrainian ports.
After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, about 20 million tons of food could not be transported from Ukraine to parts of the Middle East, North Africa and Asia, causing already rising world food prices to soar further.
This year's wheat harvest in the European Union, the world's main wheat-producing region, is likely to be disappointing, with smaller-than-usual harvests in major global wheat-producing regions such as India and Australia, coupled with soaring fuel and fertilizer costs, and there is little hope that other major grain producers will help fill the global food gap. .
According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, a total of 193 million people worldwide suffer from hunger, and the post-Russian-Ukrainian conflict has made it even worse.
About 40 percent of Africa's wheat consumption is supplied by Russia and Ukraine.
Countries such as Somalia, Libya, Lebanon, Egypt and Sudan rely heavily on wheat, maize and sunflower oil from these two countries.
Hunger and famine are plaguing parts of Africa.
UNICEF has warned that if the world focuses only on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and does not take actual rescue operations, the horrific scenario of "explosion of child deaths" could occur, with a child under the age of 5 every 10 seconds. Dying of starvation is unbelievable.
The agency estimates that more than 200,000 people face "catastrophic hunger" in Somalia, and that some 18 million Sudanese could suffer severe hunger by September, and 19 million Yemenis are also facing food insecurity this year.
In a poor country, 50% to 60% of an average person's income needs to be used for food, such as Yemen, Afghanistan, Sudan, Lebanon, Iraq, Iran.
Poor countries will suffer the most, and the poorer the country, the harder it will be hit.
There has been unrest in southern Iraq due to rising food prices.
Rising food prices could also lead to political instability in these countries.
Grain channel is blocked
Ukrainian grain exports are mainly transported by sea and land.
There are two lines by land, one is the railway through Poland to Western Europe, but the train tracks in Ukraine are wider than those in other European countries. This difference causes all goods to need to be transferred at the transfer station. The transfer of wagons.
This makes transporting grain by rail expensive and time-consuming, so exports are not large.
Data show that Ukraine exported only 638,000 tons of grain through this route in April.
The other is to ship to Baltic ports via the Belarusian railway, which is currently the cheapest and most convenient way, provided that the sanctions against Belarus are lifted by Western countries.
Europe wants to help Ukraine move grains such as wheat out of the country by road and rail, but is still stuck in a bottleneck.
There is a rail link between the two Polish cities on the Baltic Sea coast, Swinoujście and Gdynia, but a monthly capacity of 1.6 million tonnes cannot address Ukraine's wheat export needs of up to 20 million tonnes.
Deutsche Bahn said it currently carries Ukrainian agricultural products to Western Europe on as many as three trains a day, but it takes 16 to 30 days to carry them again.
To increase the number of trains, European countries have to solve a problem: many people involved are reluctant to take risks, and insurance companies refuse to provide insurance for trains in Ukraine.
It is also difficult for trucks to pass through Bulgaria, Slovakia and Slovenia, and the infrastructure at borders and transshipment points can quickly become overloaded, with queues stretching for kilometers.
Overland export logistics costs are at least twice as expensive due to rising fuel prices.
German media reported on June 28 that Ukraine is transferring some of its grain to Romania, and Romania’s border crossings and ports are already at their limit.
At border crossings between Ukraine, Moldova and Romania, trucks sometimes have to wait five to seven days.
At the same time, some small Ukrainian river ports also ship grain to Romania by boat, but the capacity is negligible.
Ukrainian grain exports are mainly shipped through the ports of Berdyansk and Mariupol on the Sea of Azov, and the port of Odessa on the Black Sea. These two shipping routes account for 90% of Ukraine's grain exports.
A truck can only load 25 tons, while a ship with an average capacity can load about 60,000 tons. The cargo ship has obvious advantages.
At present, the ports of Berdyansk and Mariupol in the Sea of Azov are under Russian control, and the port of Odessa in the Black Sea is also blocked by Russia.
Ukraine accused Russia of blocking Ukrainian ports and preventing Ukrainian grain exports; Russia denied it, accusing Ukraine of laying a large number of mines in the Black Sea waters, jeopardizing the safety of navigation and preventing ships transporting grain from leaving the port.
Multiple efforts to resolve the crisis
UN Secretary-General António Guterres has been trying for weeks for a deal to lift a blockade on Russian grain and fertilizer exports and allow Ukraine to ship grain from Odessa's main port, but progress has been slow.
Since June, with the help of Turkey, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey have negotiated the establishment of a "food corridor".
However, one month has passed, and the opening of the "food corridor" is still at the level of talks, and there has been no substantial progress.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a recent phone conversation with German Chancellor Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, reaffirmed his promise to guarantee Ukrainian grain exports and called for the lifting of sanctions on Russia.
Putin stressed that Russia will not hinder Ukraine's grain exports.
Ukrainian grain can be exported through Russian-controlled ports, such as Berdyansk, or through transit through Poland, Hungary, Romania and Belarus.
Exporting through Belarus is the most convenient way, but first the sanctions against Belarus need to be lifted.
Some Western countries rejected Putin's proposal.
The U.S. said there were no discussions about lifting sanctions on Russia.
European countries are working with the United States on plans to build temporary granaries in neighboring Ukraine, including Poland.
The European Commission's proposal to organize alternative export routes to deal with the food crisis has been discussed for the first time by agriculture ministers, and the so-called "solidarity corridor" to transport Ukrainian grain is still under discussion.
On the one hand, the mountain of food is about to rot, and on the other hand, there are people struggling with starvation. This kind of strange phenomenon should not occur, and should not exist for a long time.
Life is paramount, and the international community and relevant countries need to work together to put aside conflicts and disputes for the time being, remove all restrictions and sanctions on food exports, and deliver the accumulated food to the hungry as soon as possible to save more lives.
Li Xuehua