Moscow -
The Russian currency continues to bring surprises, but in the opposite direction this time after the ruble price reached about 64 against the dollar this week, after it had reached 50, in a state that did not last long, and deviated from the norm that lasted for years and witnessed a steady decline The Russian currency against hard currencies.
And last Tuesday, the ruble fell against the dollar by 10.7%, and it continued to decline on Wednesday and approached 65 against the dollar, and 66.65 against the euro, thus losing its daily "victories" that it started achieving about two months ago.
And the ruble began to strengthen stubbornly for a long time, reaching its greatest success on June 29, stopping one step from the “ideal” limit of 50 per dollar (the limit was 50.01), and on the same day Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that his ministry is ready to conduct Interventions in foreign exchange in order to support the ruble and the purchase of the currencies of friendly countries from export earnings.
After the historic collapse on March 10, when the ruble fell for the first time below 121 to the dollar and the euro rose to 132, it returned to its highest level in two years in early May.
vagueness
There is no clear reason for the sudden weakness of the ruble and making it give way again to the rise of the dollar, as no official data was published stating that Russian imports began to grow sharply, while Russian exports declined, the trade balance (export-import) in fact remained the main factor determining The ruble exchange rate in recent months.
It is noteworthy that the sharp decline in imports while maintaining high export volumes led to an earlier ruble price reaching nearly 50 against the dollar.
"artificial" price
The ruble price began to decline one day after a statement by the Director of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, on June 29, in which she warned that achieving the previous values of the ruble exchange rate under the new conditions threatens to reduce Russia's independence from the monetary policy of other countries.
She said that the floating exchange rate of the ruble makes it possible to adapt the economy to changing conditions, while attempts to restore the old exchange rate make it artificial.
Nabiullina explained - during the conference of the Russian Federation of Industrialists and Businessmen - that this portends a devaluation of the currency and makes it linked to foreign currencies.
I also talked about the fact that inflation in these countries is now at its highest level in 40 years, and as such Russia will have the option of “importing inflation” and synchronizing its monetary policy with these countries.
Speculation weapon
In turn, the economist Yevgeny Nadorshin considers that the ruble is declining due to what he described as "the flight of investors in foreign markets to protective assets (the dollar and the euro), the increase in speculative activity in the stock exchange, as well as the end of the tax period during which exporters stop selling foreign currencies in a regular manner. collectively to pay taxes.
Nadorshin believes that the ruble's decline is likely not to last long because imports are not recovering fast enough, while exports are stable.
In his opinion, when the situation in foreign markets calms down and the next tax period begins in Russia, the highest levels of the ruble can be seen over many years.
For his part, economic affairs analyst Victor Lachon believes that this weakness in the ruble can be addressed if the state intervenes.
He explained that earlier it was said at the official level that the level of 70-80 rubles per dollar can be considered the normal rate for the economy.
Lachon continues - in an interview with Al-Jazeera Net - that the ruble price can be re-enhanced by tightening the restrictions imposed on the circulation of hard currency, achieving a positive balance between budget revenues and the size of the agreement, and reaching a situation in which the total amount of currency flows into the country exceeds its counterpart leaving it.