China News Service, July 10th: Japan's Senate election in the shadow of Abe's assassination

  Author: Guan Na

  The two gunshots reverberated in Japan.

  On July 10, in the shadow of the sudden assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the Japanese upper house election will begin to count votes.

  Abe was the "helmsman" of Japanese politics before his death, and his death caused a "shock" within the Japanese ruling party.

How will the wind direction be changed in this election, which is positioned as the "midterm exam" of the Japanese government?

What will happen to Japanese politics?

Kishida government's "midterm exam" is coming

  Just two days before the Senate election, Abe was shot in Nara and eventually died of blood loss.

At that time, he was giving a speech for the Liberal Democratic Party Senate candidate.

On July 8, local time, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot during a speech in Nara City.

The picture shows Shinzo Abe giving a street speech before being shot.

Image source: Visual China

  The Senate election is of great significance. It is positioned as the "midterm exam" of the Japanese government, and it is also an "examination paper" for the current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

Japanese senators are elected for six-year terms, with half of them re-elected every three years.

The ruling and opposition parties will compete for 125 seats.

  Japanese media said that the election will affect the trend of Japan's political situation in the next few years.

The analysis pointed out that if the Liberal Democratic Party led by Fumio Kishida can increase its seats in this election, it will consolidate Kishida's position within the party and help maintain the stability of his regime.

The Liberal Democratic Party's goal this time is to join hands with the ruling coalition's Komeito party to maintain more than half of the seats in the Senate.

  A poll conducted by Kyodo News on July 6 showed that the two parties are expected to win more than half of the re-elected seats.

Foreign media also generally predict that Japan's ruling party will win half of the seats.

Abe Assassination Changes Election Wind

  However, the sudden death of Abe, the "big man" in the Liberal Democratic Party, will undoubtedly have an unavoidable impact on this election.

  First, the rhythm ahead of the Senate election was disrupted.

  "A few days before the official vote is the most critical time." Liu Jiangyong, a professor at the Department of International Relations at Tsinghua University, pointed out in an interview with Chinanews.com that after Abe's assassination, Kishida interrupted his out-of-town election campaign and urgently recalled all cabinet members immediately. Returning to Tokyo, "it disrupted the original rhythm."

Data map: Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

  Second, the Liberal Democratic Party may expand its seats on a large scale.

  Liu Jiangyong said that Abe's assassination will have an impact on the psychology of voters, and the Liberal Democratic Party will receive some sympathy votes.

  Zhou Yongsheng, a professor at the Institute of International Relations of China Foreign Affairs University, also believes that "As one of the leaders of the Liberal Democratic Party, Abe's tragic death will definitely win the sympathy of the Japanese people. Therefore, in this election, the Liberal Democratic Party may expand its seats on a large scale."

  Third, the composition of forces within the Liberal Democratic Party may have changed.

  Japanese government officials say the general trend in politics is bound to change.

The internal strength of the Liberal Democratic Party and the way the regime operates will also change.

  Japanese media said that as the longest-serving prime minister in Japan's constitutional history, Abe's influence in Japanese politics has not weakened even after his abdication.

He leads the "Abe faction", the largest faction in the Liberal Democratic Party, but after his death, there is no suitable candidate for the faction.

If this faction is shaken, it will affect the cabinet and the personnel of the Liberal Democratic Party.

  Liu Jiangyong believes that Abe's assassination will not have a negative impact on Kishida's ruling position, but his position will be relatively elevated and consolidated.

On the other hand, Zhou Yongsheng pointed out that due to the Japanese moral standards of "loyalty to the group", Abe's death will not lead to the disintegration of the Liberal Democratic Party, and may further strengthen the ruling position of the Liberal Democratic Party and strengthen people's sympathy for the Liberal Democratic Party.

  In addition, Liu Jiangyong emphasized, "Will the power center formed by the Liberal Democratic Party's 'Anma system' (Shinzo Abe and Taro Aso) come to an end or become the end of the gun? The reorganization of power within the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan has thus kicked off, which is worthy of attention. ."

Domestic and foreign challenges remain unabated

  At present, Japan is facing problems such as rising prices and insufficient power supply, which puts pressure on the Kishida government.

Data map: The streets of Tokyo under high temperature weather in Japan.

  Polls show that the topic of most concern to voters in this election is "countermeasures against rising prices and economic policy."

More than half of the economic-related policies that Japanese companies want the Japanese government to implement are "countermeasures against rising prices."

  Zhou Yongsheng said, "The biggest challenge Kishida faces is whether he can develop the economy well, especially under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the prices of energy and food have risen sharply, and prices in Japan tend to be inflationary. Japan's economy continues to grow, and this is the most important test."

  In terms of diplomacy, Liu Jiangyong believes, "At present, there are signs of 'derailment' in Japan's national strategy, which is the biggest threat facing Japan. The security situation in the region may worsen."

  Although the results of the current Senate election are not yet known, it is certain that the gunfire on the 8th will forever change Japan.

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