China News Service, July 7th. Where are the talents in Taiwan?
What is the long-term solution to Taiwan's talent shortage?
Will it fall into the "Lost Decade"?
The latest issue of Taiwan's "Foresight" magazine analyzes the current situation of talents on the island.
The full text is excerpted as follows:
Where are the talents in Taiwan?
For a long time, it has always been impossible to get rid of the fate of "cheap theory". Although this wave of competition for talent has come urgently and fiercely, under the "principle of price and quantity", it has also ushered in a rare "wave of salary increases". .
However, to completely get rid of the cheap fate, there is still a lot of things to do.
"The salary level of Taiwanese people has basically remained unchanged after 2000. Although it seems that it has been increased a little every year, it is probably not adjusted after deducting the price increase," said Chen, the former "Minister of Science and Technology". Liang Ji said bluntly.
He has been teaching in the Electrical Engineering Department of National Taiwan University for many years, and he is distressed that the "ability and remuneration" of young people have not matched for a long time. Therefore, in the face of this wave of talent shortages, Chen Liangji has a positive attitude, "Young people's wages can finally rise."
According to the data of 104 Human Resources Bank, the starting salary of new workers in the workplace has been hovering between NT$29,000 and NT$31,000 for a long time, which is like a lifeless electrocardiogram. Until 2022, there will finally be a rare "growth surge". ”, reaching an all-time high of 35,800 yuan in May.
The technology industry grabs people, driving listed companies to raise wages by 10%
From the perspective of the technology industry with a large talent shortage, TSMC, in order to tighten up its employees, has raised the salary of most employees by 5-10% this year, which is significantly higher than the 3-5% level in previous years, causing a chain effect in the industry. (MCU) factory Jiuqi Technology increased by 27.5%, LED driver IC factory accumulated a 20% increase, and the information of salary increases in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the electronics industry came one after another. and inhabit.”
Driven by the technology industry, industries such as traditional production, electromechanical, cement, steel, and biotechnology have announced salary adjustments.
According to data from the Public Information Observatory, there are more than 30 OTC listed companies this year, with salary increases of more than 10%.
"The technology industry still has about ten years of prosperity, and it is also a ten-year prosperity for talents. The overall effect of this fluctuation can be seen at least five years." Chen Liangji, who has a deep understanding of the industrial pulse, looks at the impact optimistically and pragmatically at the same time. Point out the things to pay attention to after the increase.
"The salary has gone up, but everyone can't relax, ability improvement is the key," Chen Liangji analyzed, if young people's ability is similar to the past, they can only continue their previous jobs and continue to receive the salary of their predecessors, no matter what. There will not be much upward adjustment. New capabilities must be created to create new value. "The salary is realistic, and the value I generate is equal to my price."
According to the industry population forecast of the "National Development and Development Council", the population proportion of the top ten industries has not changed much.
In 2030, the employment population in the manufacturing industry will still be 28%, followed by the wholesale and retail industry (14.9%), and the proportion of the first two will decrease slightly; 7.4%), followed by the construction industry (7%) and other service industries (6.8%).
The forecast model assumes that the average annual economic growth rate from 2021 to 2030 is 3%, and considering the productivity improvement benefits brought by digital technology, the "National Development Council" estimates the overall final manpower demand, and the number of industrial needs in 2030 is about 13.025 million. people.
Comparing with another data, in 2030, Taiwan's working-age population (the population of young adults aged 15 to 64) is estimated to be about 14 million, which seems to be enough, but because of Taiwan's long-term labor force participation rate, it will be about 60%. In terms of conversion, the manpower is greatly insufficient.
Seize the present and avoid falling into the "lost decade"
Judging from the six major talent scramble sites and the three major supply difficulties, since the industry is expected to flourish, but the root cause of the phenomenon of low birthrate is irreversible, the labor shortage may have to spread for a long time. How should we respond?
"Retaining people is probably a more important issue for the HR department this year," said Chen Yufen, general manager of the international headhunting platform Aike Taiwan. A salary increase is no longer an easy decision for companies, but sometimes even if they are determined to raise their salary, There are other organizational risks as well, because it can undermine the existing salary structure, "you help a group of people raise their salary, what about the rest of the organization?"
The unbalanced mood may spread, and how to harmonize the internal atmosphere is a new issue, and other welfare packages need to be deployed and comprehensively planned.
In addition, when there is really no one available, Chen Yufen suggested to try a more "flexible" employment method.
She gave an example. The demand for digital transformation talents has suddenly become very large in the era of the epidemic. Many companies are recruiting new vacancies, but professional talents need to be cultivated for a long time. There is no way to ask for them today or have them tomorrow, but the transformation task still needs to be carried out. "Task outsourcing" is a recent trend. "Talents do not need to be supported by themselves, and sharing is also a good choice."
However, in the long run of time, from the perspective of social change, these slight transfers are a drop in the bucket under the issue of "low birthrate".
What is the long-term solution to the talent shortage?
Since 1990, Japanese society has entered the famous "Lost Ten Years", and there is even a saying of "Lost 30 Years". In addition to financial strategies and social and cultural factors, "low birthrate" is also the main cause of economic collapse.
Seeing that it is difficult for Taiwan to get rid of the low birthrate, is it also on the path of loss?
"We are heading towards the early stage of 'loss'," said Xue Chengtai, an expert on low birthrate issues and a professor at National Taiwan University. From the perspective of population structure, the population ratio of young adults aged 15 to 64 in Taiwan reached a peak of 74.0% in 2013, and then began to fall. In 2021, it will drop to 70.8%, which is similar to the 69% of the young population in 1990, where Japan lost its starting point. "And Taiwan's situation is even worse, because Japan is longevity, while Taiwan's young population is low, which will make the future labor force decline faster."
However, at present, Taiwan has not fallen into the trap of loss. The reason is that the overall state of foreign trade and the domestic economy is not bad. Therefore, when the working population is falling, the economy has not yet seen a clear decline.
However, by 2025, Taiwan's population over the age of 65 will reach 20.1%, becoming a "super-aged society", and the demographic structure has entered a new situation. Therefore, the next three years will be the key to transformation.
Xue Chengtai analyzed, "Although the population structure is a crisis, it is not alarmist," because the young population now accounts for 70%, which is a very good manpower state for industrial development, and can be used as appropriate.
From the perspective of labor structure, the current problem in Taiwan is that the "quantity" of manpower is sufficient, but the "quality" cannot correspond to the needs of the industry. This requires a change in the values of the labor force to correspond to the corresponding industrial manpower gap. This wave of technology If the industry can make a good demonstration, drive the movement of talents, and adjust the "inequity" problem, there will be opportunities to "fewer children and not lost".
In this non-labor age, the output value cannot be calculated by the number of people
"The most important key is to get rid of the 'number thinking'," pointed out Jian Lifeng, the former managing director of Google who has long been concerned about Taiwan's talent development. There are many families in the agricultural society because the more people there are, the more production capacity and output value; Taiwan used to have more families. The industrial thinking of traditional manufacturing is that the more people there are, the more production capacity and output value will be. "But now Taiwan is moving towards knowledge-based brain work, and the output value is not calculated by head. Now, we must find a way to make one person work as ten people. , for a hundred people."
Such a method is to encourage "creativity", to find new paths, and to open up new business opportunities.
Chen Liangji sighed that Taiwan's education system did not know when it started to become "advanced to higher education". 40 or 50 years ago, it was still about the balance of six education. "Now young workers pay attention to the balance between work and life, I think, then It's because people find their own way."
Higher education-style education only focuses on training people's majors, which may bring job advantages and career success.
But human beings are creatures after all. When he sacrifices sports, art and other life for the sake of further education, one day he will feel the lack of life and be unhappy, and turn to find a way out of life.
Also because of the lack of living ability, lost the resilience of strain.
"We can only look forward to whether the three methods of experimental education passed at the end of 2014 will bring influence. There are still a small number of people. If it can be expanded to 70-80% of students, it can make a big difference," said Chen Liangji. say.
In the current educational system, many contents have nothing to do with life.
The concept of experimental education is to return to the thinking of early education. Based on "basic human ability", education is not for examinations, but for the needs of future life. The most important concept is actually "learning" itself. It's not about learning anything, but training "learning" as a skill. In the face of changing times, this is what people really need in a lifetime.
Chen Liangji said, "This is the cultivation of 'resilience'", and it is also the "creative" ability required to break through the thinking of numbers and maintain industrial competitiveness in the era of low birthrates.