The American Center for Strategic and Security Studies published - on its website - a report on the Tunisian issue, in which it stated that the possible ratification of the new draft constitution in Tunisia heralds a return to the unsupervised presidential system, which was toppled by popular protests during the Arab Spring a decade ago.
The report of the center - known for its acronym "Stratfor" - stated that although the new constitution will raise more controversy, the consolidation of power under President Kais Saied may help reduce the economic and political crises in Tunisia in the long term.
He noted that Tunisians will vote on July 25 on a new constitution that was drafted during a swift and contentious consultative process overseen by President Saied.
The referendum on the constitution takes place exactly a year after Saied suspended parliament and consecrated executive powers in his hands.
In its report, the Center expected that the new constitution would be approved in the upcoming referendum as a result of several factors, including that there is no minimum for participation in the referendum, which means that the result will be considered legitimate regardless of the number of Tunisian citizens who will vote.
Political unrest and paralysis
According to the center’s report, the draft constitution, which was unveiled on June 30, and restores the Tunisian political system to what it was before the Arab Spring by expanding the powers of the executive president and reducing the powers of parliament, will become the country’s constitution, whether most Tunisians like it or reject it. .
The report pointed out that the new draft constitution grants President Saied broad powers with very little oversight, which will lead to Tunisia losing the gains of the Arab Spring and the return of the authoritarian regime that was overthrown in the 2011 revolution.
The Stratfor report suggested that the absence of oversight over the president's powers in the new draft constitution would fuel significant political opposition, and plunge the country into a prolonged period of social unrest.
Most political parties and many civil society organizations oppose President Said's vision for Tunisia's political future, as some see the new constitution as paving the way for authoritarian rule.
The Stratfor report predicted that the initial backlash against President Saied's return to authoritarian rule would exacerbate Tunisia's economic crisis and political paralysis in the short term.
He considered that a return to a more centralized system of government would eventually enable Said to pass the reforms needed to achieve the financial stability that Tunisia needs.