Between dismissal and resignation.. 3 scenarios that pursue British Prime Minister Boris Johnson

LONDON

- There are calls for the departure and resignation of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, not only from his opponents, but also from his closest ministers who are still with him in the government, and who are demanding their president an honorable exit instead of facing a fate they see as inevitable, which is removal or dismissal.

Boris Johnson's government achieved a record and unprecedented in the history of the United Kingdom, with the resignation of 45 officials between a minister and an assistant minister within 48 hours, and the number is still qualified to rise with Johnson's insistence on "fighting until the last moment", as he told his government ministers who demanded his resignation.

Johnson puts himself, with him, his government and the Conservative Party in an unenviable position, as he puts the country in front of a number of scenarios that all lead towards his voluntary or involuntary departure.

Scenario One: Resignation

Several government ministers close to Boris are trying to convince him that it is time for his departure, but he is deaf to all these demands.

Johnson believes that he is based on electoral legitimacy, as he is the owner of the historic electoral victory in 2019, which gave the Conservative Party an absolute majority in Parliament.

The Conservative Party leaders, who still have a good relationship with Boris Johnson, are trying to persuade him to repeat the scenario of the departure of former Prime Minister Theresa May, who has set a date for her departure, and thus guarantees himself an honorable exit away from impeachment.

However, most British political analyzes expect Johnson to continue his insistence on staying in office no matter the cost, defying everyone.

Scenario Two: Withdrawal of Confidence

Angry Conservative MPs tried to impeach Boris Johnson a month ago, but the attempt failed, and Johnson survived by only 32 votes.

According to Conservative Party laws, the impeachment procedure is activated only once a year, which means that Boris Johnson has plenty of time until next summer to undergo the impeachment procedure again.

But the new variable is that next week will witness the election of new members to the 1922 Committee, which is the committee specialized in activating the recall procedure. Trust again.

Given the scale of the growing anger against Johnson, all expectations are that Tory parliamentarians will vote to impeach him.

If this mechanism succeeds, Johnson will be removed from his position as leader of the Conservative Party, and by extension from the Prime Minister, and then the Conservative Party will have 15 days to choose a new leader who will be the new Prime Minister.

Third scenario: early elections

British law allows the prime minister to call a premature election, a referendum on his popularity in the street, and Boris Johnson may resort to this solution as a form of ploy or political revenge against members of his party.

Most opinion polls say that if a general election is held in advance of its time in the coming months, the Conservative Party will lose its landslide majority and may hand power to the opposition Labor Party.

Johnson is keeping this card, as if he wants to tell the Tory leaders that without him they will not achieve any electoral victory and will not remain in power.

On the other hand, the Conservatives believe that Johnson's stay in power will undermine the party's popularity, and may lead the Labor Party to win the next election in two years.

And so the general election scenario would be to demolish the temple on top of everyone in the Conservative Party who had hoped to preserve their overwhelming majority for years to come.

What will happen after Johnson's dismissal or resignation?

If the confidence of Boris Johnson is withdrawn, the Conservatives have 15 days to choose a new leader for their party, and the laws stipulate that more than one candidate must submit to the position of party leadership, and then deputies and members of the Conservatives vote for them and the winner becomes Prime Minister, and during this period Johnson runs the caretaker government until the selection of a president new ministers.

If the Prime Minister resigns and decides to leave immediately, his powers will pass to his deputy, in this case the current Minister of Justice Dominic Raab.

If Raab considers that running the position of prime minister for a transitional period may affect his position in the leadership of the party, then he has the right to apologize, and then he will choose another name that is more neutral to lead the transitional period.