KIEV

- With the first weeks of the Russian war on Ukraine, Kiev sounded the global alarm, predicting a decline in the volume of its annual grain and other crops by 20-30%.

Thus, fears of hunger and high prices quickly spread to many countries of the world, especially in North Africa, the Middle East and Asia, which were highly dependent on imports from Ukraine, the fifth largest exporter of grain in 2021.

Fears are not limited to the decline in production, but also include the paralysis of the export movement through the Black Sea ports, which has so far failed to be resolved by the calls of the United Nations and the mediation of regional countries led by Turkey.

Ukrainian farmers warn of the worst

But Ukraine's farmers warn that "the worst is yet to come", with the war's continuing repercussions on planting, harvesting and export operations.

Andrey Doblichev, director of Consulting and Services, and a partner in several other Ukrainian agricultural companies, told Al Jazeera Net about the farmers' concerns, saying, "We are suffering from the collapse of the production chain, starting with the purchase of seeds in the required quantity, type and quality, through the lack of fuel supplies and the high cost of Its prices, which reflect a significant delay in the process of planting, watering, harvesting, shipping and exporting.”

"The agricultural operation stopped for several weeks in the Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy regions, due to fears of land mining after the withdrawal of the Russians, and because of the destruction of a number of supply bridges," he added.

He added, "Most of the seed dealers have moved to the 100% prepaid system, and this does not suit most farmers and many large companies as well, in addition to the high prices of seeds and fertilizers at rates that reached 250%."

negative repercussions

With a pessimistic view, farmers in Ukraine see the future of the local and global market in front of their products in light of the continuing war, between domestic inflation, inability to export, and importers turning towards alternative sources.

“The regions of the east and south are the largest producers of wheat in Ukraine, and the regions of the north and west produce more corn crops,” Andrey Doblichev says.

He added that the occupation of large parts of the lands of Kharkiv, Lugansk, Kherson and even Mykolaiv, will lead to a decline in production by 20-30%, according to the least estimate, but I think that the crops of other regions will decline by 15-20% for the aforementioned reasons.

All this - according to Dublichev - will lead to a rise in grain prices by up to 40% locally, and this will be reflected in an inevitable global turmoil, for three reasons, according to him:

  • Logistics related to export ports stop.

  • High prices for transport and export operations via alternative roads and railways.

  • Delays and declines in production operations in general.

Ukrainian grain is besieged

While Turkey is trying to mediate between Kyiv and Moscow to release Ukrainian grain exports through the Black Sea ports, the Odessa city administration announces that its three besieged ports with Russian ships contain about 6 million tons of grain, and that smaller volumes of grain are also trapped in the ports of the neighboring Mykolaiv region.

The reality of failing Ukraine's hopes for a record export season of about 70 million tons in 2022, after it had reached 50 million last year (about 80% of the total harvest), especially since the ports were the window of 90% of Ukraine's grain exports to the world.

The head of the Ukrainian Grain Exporters Association, Mykola Horbachev, predicted earlier that Ukraine's exports would fall this year to 35 million tons of grain, especially wheat, at best.

As a result of all of the above, and in light of the continuation of the war and the disruption of many other sectors, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Shmyhal expected the country's GDP to decline by up to 35% in 2022, knowing that agricultural exports constitute about 20% of Ukraine's annual gross domestic product.

As for solutions, changing the situation - according to the authorities and experts alike - passes through stopping the war and lifting the blockade of the ports, because its disruption costs the country's economy about $170 million per day;

And the adoption of alternative export methods for grain, such as land routes and railways, which now provide the world with only one-sixth of what the ports used to provide, in addition to the slow export processes through them, and their high costs.