Around 11:15 a.m. GMT (1:15 p.m. in Paris), the euro lost 0.77% to 1.0188 dollars, after falling to 1.0187 dollars, its lowest since December 2002.

The euro has been falling since Tuesday "under the cumulative effect of fears of recession in Europe and financial turbulence fueled by a new surge in energy prices in the region (notably gas and electricity prices)", explains Guillaume Dejean, analyst at Western Union.

The forced end of a strike in Norway to restart production at all costs in three oil and gas fields was not enough to reassure investors, who remain focused on the situation in Ukraine and Russia.

“If Russia does not restart its exports, it is likely that the EU will be short of gas at the end of winter”, warns Holger Schmieding, analyst at Berenberg, and the situation could worsen with a decrease in the Russian offer.

“The peak in gas prices and the uncertainty in the energy market are the main reasons why we expect a recession in the euro zone from autumn 2022 and until mid-2023, and not simple stagflation," he said.

The specter of stagnant growth and high inflation (stagflation) was, however, the worst-case scenario a few months ago, and remains the main concern in the United States.

-"Impossible to buy" the euro-

The US Federal Reserve could revive the economy by easing monetary policy as Europeans struggle to make up for their lack of gas, said Ulrich Leuchtmann, an analyst at Commerzbank.

“It makes sense that the US dollar is the clear winner in this situation,” he concludes.

In addition, "the credibility of the European Central Bank (ECB) has been eroded" by its "overreaction" to an increase in the spread in the borrowing rates of member countries of the euro zone, estimates Kit Juckes, analyst at Societe Generale, which therefore considers the euro "impossible to buy" this summer.

The currency "is so unattractive that even a major political crisis does not allow the euro to rise against the pound!", He underlines.

The pound indeed took 0.44% to 85.57 pence for one euro, while uncertainties are piling up on the future of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson after the spectacular resignations of two of his ministers.

Pound sterling coins and banknotes, April 22, 2022 Tolga Akmen AFP

"Westminster's setbacks add a layer of uncertainty to the bleak outlook for the UK and global economy," said Susannah Streeter, analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

According to her, the measured reaction of the British pound (-0.34% to 1.1906 dollar, brushing the lowest since 2020 reached the day before at 1.1899 dollar) is due to the fact that "a government without Boris Johnson in his head is not seen as a major threat to the British economy."

© 2022 AFP