He can handle the opposition and create alliances

Macron faces a leadership test for France without a parliamentary majority

• Macron lost the parliamentary majority in the last elections.

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• Melenchon and Le Pen have a huge fan base.

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Emmanuel Macron won the French presidential election, in April, easily, but the repercussions of the parliamentary elections, which took place weeks ago, and their surprising results, upended the scales of politics in France.

The French political landscape is less stable in some respects, but not fundamentally in doubt, although anything could happen in France.

There was little doubt that Macron would win the presidential election, because his opponent in the run-off was once again the far-right leader, Marine Le Pen, as in 2017. Nor was there much doubt that his margin of victory would be less than once. previous.

Le Pen softened her tone, and in this election she had the added advantage of Eric Zemmour, a far-right rebel who made her appear less hard-line.

Bigger loss than expected

In the parliamentary elections, the question was whether Macron's new three-party coalition would win an outright majority (as his own party did in 2017).

The pollsters said it wouldn't happen, and in fact it didn't.

But his losses were greater than expected.

In the 577-seat parliament, the majority is 289. Macron's coalition got only 245 seats, so the coalition runs a minority government that needs 44 votes, from other parties, to pass bills.

This minority situation is not as hopeless as it seems, because the largest opposition parties, within the far right and the extreme left, are completely opposed to each other.

Le Pen leads the right-wing National Rally (89 seats), while Jean-Luc Melenchon leads a 131-seat coalition of left-wing parties (his Proud France, as well as the Greens, Socialists and Communists).

Even if the two parties worked to bring down the government, they would not have enough votes to do so, and voters could push them to risk political chaos.

In contrast, there are voices elsewhere in Parliament that Macron's minority government can hope to mobilize, on a negotiated, case-by-case basis.

The most important of them are the votes of the Republican Party, a center-right institutional party, which won 61 seats, enough to reach a majority vote with Macron.

double europe

But the Republicans define themselves as being in the opposition, and refuse to join the "Macronite" government coalition.

It's a parliamentary skill.

This gives the Republicans influence in politics, and being in opposition gives their leaders an independent view as contenders for the presidency in 2027. Their leader, Nicolas Sarkozy, was elected president in 2007, and another, François Fillon, was a top contender in 2017, until he fell into a financial scandal. .

In short, in contrast to the familiar left/right pattern, French politics is now divided into three blocs: Le Pen's populist nationalist caucus, Macron's center-left and center-right alliance, and Mélenchon's left-wing, populist anti-capitalist coalition.

Both Mélenchon and Le Pen are anti-NATO, anti-US, and anti-EU nationalists who in past years have been sympathetic to Russia as part of an independent Greater Europe, in which France will be a diplomatic leader.

Once there, Europe will weaken, and the transatlantic connection will be strained.

And if one of them comes to power, it will provoke a crisis.

one leader

At the same time, it is remarkable that the three blocs depend on a single leader.

The National Rally (formerly the National Front) is a kind of family brand - Marine Le Pen is the daughter of founder Jean-Marie Le Pen.

While the extreme left coalition was created by Melenchon, it succeeded with "proud France", while the others (the Greens, the Socialists and the Communists) failed.

Macron's party was a movement he created for the 2017 elections.

Hypothetically, the French government could remain stable during parliament's five-year term: Macron is the president, a majority is unlikely to seek to bring down the government, and parliament with a minority coalition must be able to rule, with special support from Republicans, and perhaps others.

Macron is now talking about a majority of "national unity".

tough choices

But innovative legislation will be difficult, especially with regard to difficult choices that relate to people's lives, such as retirement age, as well as living issues, such as inflation and salaries, and pensions, and the transition to green energy, too, will be more difficult.

Many people see Macron as "pro-business," which is true, but they assume that being pro-business means anti-middle-class and anti-working, rather than looking for growth and more jobs, as both social and economic policy. Economic culture is not limited to France.

The general conclusion is that, despite losing the parliamentary majority, Macron has succeeded in maintaining the "centre", as France's governing political principle.

The growing influence of the far right and the left is not out of control or out of control, and no other leader in France could have done better, and if France is lucky, the political differences could ease.

The question is whether conditions will produce more social conflict, more radical polarization, and the "yellow vests" movement has not yet been forgotten.

For the world, Macron will conduct French foreign policy as he has for the past five years.

Some have criticized him for trying too hard, with little geopolitical weight.

And this is an old story, going back to Charles de Gaulle.

France is trying to hit above its weight.

Nobody is saying that Macron is a lightweight, dishonest, unreliable thinker, unwilling to take calculated risks, or unwilling, for example, to help Ukraine against Russian aggression. It is hard to admire a leader like Macron.

245

Only a seat was won by Macron's coalition, in a parliament consisting of 577 seats.

Once Le Pen and Melenchon are behind the scenes of politics, Europe will weaken, the transatlantic connection will be strained, and if one of them comes to power, it will provoke a crisis.

In contrast to the familiar left/right pattern, French politics is now divided into three blocks;

There is Le Pen's populist nationalist caucus, Macron's center-left and center-right alliance, and the left-wing populist Melenchon coalition against capitalism.

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