China and its allies in the face of America and the West .. Which economic power will win in the end?

At the beginning of the nineties, America controlled the capabilities of the global economic system through the system of globalization and the generalization of the capitalist economic system, but this did not prevent this undeclared conflict by some countries towards America and the West.

We found America and the West at the beginning of the third millennium disturbed by the behavior of both Russia and China because of the behavior of their sovereign funds, and the United States and the West have also directed criticism since that date at China because of its insistence on devaluing its local currency towards foreign currencies, which gives it an undeserved advantage in the field of exports.

Since the global financial crisis in 2008, there has been a tangible movement by some countries - led by China and other emerging countries - to work to change the rules of the game, and the existence of a global economic system that is not controlled by America and the West alone, so we found the trend towards activating exchange through local currencies between some countries, led by China, Russia and some other Asian countries.

Quick steps to gather the BRICS

Then other steps followed, such as the announcement of the BRICS grouping (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), which are the countries with the fastest economic growth in the world, countries at a similar stage of newly developed economic development, and on their way to becoming countries advanced.

In addition, the launch of the Asian Infrastructure Bank through the BRICS pool, in which China contributed a large proportion of its capital, a move that was seen as seeking an alternative to the World Bank.

There are also many situations from which emerging and developing countries are bound by the rules of the global economic system produced by globalization, which has resulted in several economic problems.

The Russian war on Ukraine and the resulting problems in the global economies have put a major crisis that some see as a result of Russia’s aggressive behavior in entering the war on Ukraine, as well as because of the economic sanctions imposed by America and the West on it.

Recently, the Group of Seven industrial meetings convened to consider the energy and food crises, the repercussions of the Russian war on Ukraine, and the possibility of imposing more economic sanctions on Russia.

On the other hand, there was no similar move by the BRICS to advocate or support the Russian position, but we found that both India and China are indirectly supporting Russia by increasing their import share of Russian oil, although they benefit from the advantage of cheap oil that Russia offers to some countries.

Undoubtedly, the Russian war on Ukraine will have its aftermath, whether it ends with Russia’s victory or its loss, but it is certain that its victory in this war will strengthen the position of the BRICS grouping, even if Russia is directly involved in this conflict with America and the West alone.

As for its loss of the war, it will affect the future of the BRICS grouping, and this will have an impact on more control in the interest of America and the West.

Breaking the dominance of the dollar

Russia is waging a war to break the dominance of the dollar over international financial settlements and the control of America and the West over the global financial system. We have seen Moscow's steps to make its oil trade in rubles, as well as settling its trade with some countries in local currencies.

However, could the next step be for the rest of the BRICS countries to join Russia in its struggle with America and the West?

Of course, it is difficult to accept this scenario, but the support for Russia will be from the BRICS countries indirectly, and in a manner that does not carry negative consequences for the economies of these countries for Russia's unilateral decision to war against Ukraine.

This leads us to the need to consider the economic capabilities of both parties, and the extent to which these capabilities contribute to the future of the conflict, and the possibilities of reaching a new global economic order.

GDP weights

The global economic GDP amounted to 96.1 trillion dollars in 2021, according to the World Bank database figures, and the contribution of the Industrial Group of Seven to this output was 42.3 trillion dollars, equivalent to 44%, while the contribution of the BRICS countries to this output amounted to 24.2 trillion dollars, representing a proportion of 25%.

Hence, we find that the G7 industrial group outperforms the BRICS group in terms of GDP values, bearing in mind that the G7 industrial economies have not yet recovered due to the Corona crisis.

We must be aware of the great weight of America's position in the G7 industrial group, as well as China's position in the BRICS countries. America achieves 54% of the value of the gross domestic product of the Group of Seven industrialized countries, and China achieves 73% of the value of the GDP of the BRICS countries.

foreign trade

World Bank database figures show that merchandise exports worldwide amounted to $22.4 trillion at the end of 2021, and merchandise imports worldwide also amounted to $22.6 trillion on the same date.

According to the same source, the merchandise exports of the Industrial Group of Seven amounted to 6.3 trillion dollars, which represents 28.1% of the total merchandise exports to the world, while the merchandise imports of the same group on the same date amounted to about 7.6 trillion dollars, which represents 33.5% of the total merchandise imports of the world. .

The performance of the BRICS grouping shows that the proceeds of the group's merchandise exports at the end of 2021 amounted to 4.6 trillion dollars, which represents 20.7% of the total merchandise exports to the world, while the merchandise imports in the same year for the group amounted to 3.9 trillion dollars, representing 17% of the total imports. commodity to the world.

Hence, we find that the performance of the Industrial Group of Seven is more influential in the movement of international merchandise trade in terms of value and proportion, bearing in mind that China represents the Roman balance in the merchandise foreign trade of the BRICS group of countries, as China’s merchandise exports represent 72.4% of the total exports of these countries. Its imports represent 68.7% of the total imports of the commodity group.

technology race

There is no doubt that the performance of the domestic product or the contribution to the movement of international trade are important factors that can affect expectations about the future of the new world order, but the most important of these two indicators is the acquisition and production of technology.

We have seen how America and the West have seized the necks of Chinese companies that produce smart devices or those countries that rely on semi-transportation that are used in the production of smart weapons.

Yes, the gap is narrowing between both America and China in the field of technology production, but America is still advanced and works largely to monopolize this field by bringing in minds from all countries of the world and allowing immigration as well as providing the necessary investments and preventing Chinese companies from participating in specific areas related to production Technology in America.

Foreseeing the future

China is making remarkable progress in its undeclared conflict with America and China on the economic level, and some BRICS countries are also achieving successes on the same level, but these efforts do not bring together joint action, as even the BRICS grouping has not yet been developed to reach an integrated entity to be in confrontation with the European Union or Similar to it, while America is heading to bring Europe together economically and militarily, and this was largely explained in the Biden administration's efforts to activate NATO over the past period.

Undoubtedly, the emergence of a new global economic order will take place, but when?

This will depend on the nature of the conflict and the success of the BRICS countries and others in accumulating their economic and political gains against America and Europe.