On the 4th local time, the British Center for Economic and Business Research released a report saying that due to the reduction of Russian natural gas supply, the risk of European economic recession has risen sharply, and the probability of European economic recession this winter is up to 40%.

Data map: The pipeline of the "Beixi-2" natural gas pipeline project landing facility.

  The report pointed out that although European countries differ in their dependence on Russian gas supplies, if the shortage of natural gas supplies continues to worsen, a "serious economic recession is almost certain" in Europe.

This will not be limited to countries such as Germany and Italy, which are highly dependent on Russia's natural gas supply. Fluctuations in global natural gas prices and insufficient natural gas storage capacity will also impact other European countries such as the United Kingdom.

Some European companies may be closed due to shortages in natural gas supplies and soaring energy costs, and the high linkages in European countries' industrial supply chains will further increase the risk of a recession in Europe.

In addition, energy shortages lead to further growth in the European consumer price index and inflationary pressures, which will also lead to further deterioration of the European economic situation.

  Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the United States and Western countries have imposed multiple rounds of sanctions on Russia.

The EU announced in April that it would stop importing Russian coal in August.

On June 3, the European Commission announced the sixth round of sanctions against Russia, including a partial oil embargo.

The ever-increasing sanctions have not had the expected effect, but have clearly exacerbated the energy shortage in Europe.

As a countermeasure, Russia has required "unfriendly" countries and regions participating in sanctions against Russia to use rubles for settlement of gas supply contracts since April 1.

At present, European countries such as Poland, Bulgaria, Finland, the Netherlands and Denmark that have defaulted on gas payments and refused to settle in rubles have been “cut off” by Russia.

In June, Gazprom cut the supply of natural gas to Germany via the Nord Stream-1 pipeline for technical reasons, further putting pressure on the European market.